When will Tesla Motors reach 1 million total cumulative worldwide sales of Tesla EV's

[Benz]

When (in what year) will Tesla Motors reach the 1 million total cumulative worldwide sales of Tesla EV's mark?

Anyone who would like to predict in what year this might/will happen?

 

[GSP]

I will predict 2018.

GSP

 

[Eberhard]

2008-2011 2500 units
2012 2700
2013 25.000
2014 60.000
2015 150.000
2016 400.000
2017 1.000.000
2018 2.500.000

 

[Benz]

Without making any calculations I would think that this could not happen before 2020.

 

[DaveT]

2008-2011 2500
2012 2700 (cumulative 5200)
2013 23,800 (cumulative 29000)
2014 36,000 Model S (cumulative 65000)
2015 60,000 Model S/X (cumulative 125000)
2016 80,000 Model S/X (cumulative 205000)
2017 90k Model S/X, 80,000 Gen III (cumulative (375000)
2018 90k Model S/X, 180,000 Gen III (cumulative 645000)
2019 90k Model S/X, 270,000 Gen III (cumulative 1005000)
2020 90k Model S/X, 350,000 Gen III (cumulative 1445000)

So my guess is they'll hit 1m cars cumulative in 2019.

 

[Benz]

2008-2011 2500
2012 2700 (cumulative 5200)
2013 23,800 (cumulative 29000)
2014 36,000 Model S (cumulative 65000)
2015 60,000 Model S/X (cumulative 125000)
2016 80,000 Model S/X (cumulative 205000)
2017 90k Model S/X, 80,000 Gen III (cumulative (375000)
2018 90k Model S/X, 180,000 Gen III (cumulative 645000)
2019 90k Model S/X, 270,000 Gen III (cumulative 1005000)
2020 90k Model S/X, 350,000 Gen III (cumulative 1445000)

So my guess is they'll hit 1m cars cumulative in 2019.

OK, this is a realistic calculated guess. Let's say in December 2019.

But I would expect Tesla Motors to unveil a Tesla Truck (Model T?) in 2018 or 2019 as well.

 

[DaveT]

OK, this is a realistic calculated guess. Let's say in December 2019.

But I would expect Tesla Motors to unveil a Tesla Truck (Model T?) in 2018 or 2019 as well.

There was an interesting article a few months ago reporting on a Goldman Sachs visit to the Tesla factory and interview w/Elon Musk:
View ValueWalk article link

In the article it mentions that "longer term" (I'm guessing 2020?) Tesla envisions selling 500k units:
200k Gen III sedan
150k Gen III SUV
90k Model S/X
60k(?) Next gen roadster

It appears that Tesla (at that time) wasn't planning a truck after Gen III but rather the next gen roadster. But I think that the next gen roadster might be delayed as Gen III demand might surprise Tesla and they will have to focus on that.

 

[Grendal]

In the article it mentions that "longer term" (I'm guessing 2020?) Tesla envisions selling 500k units:
200k Gen III sedan
150k Gen III SUV
90k Model S/X
60k(?) Next gen roadster

It appears that Tesla (at that time) wasn't planning a truck after Gen III but rather the next gen roadster. But I think that the next gen roadster might be delayed as Gen III demand might surprise Tesla and they will have to focus on that.

Dave T has it right. A truck will be in Tesla's future, but they will have lots of other priorities for quite a while.

And since we're guessing, I'll go with 1 million cars by 2020. Gen III is a huge increase in production that, knowing Elon, will be a very slow ramp up to maintain quality.

 

[Benz]

Will it be fair enough to say that Tesla Motors will have delivered cumulative & worldwide at least 250,000 Model Ses before 2020?