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When will Tesla Motors reach 1 million total cumulative worldwide sales of Tesla EV's

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Benz, Aug 1, 2013.

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  1. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    When (in what year) will Tesla Motors reach the 1 million total cumulative worldwide sales of Tesla EV's mark?

    Anyone who would like to predict in what year this might/will happen?
     
  2. GSP

    GSP Member

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    I will predict 2018.

    GSP
     
  3. Eberhard

    Eberhard #421 Model S #S32

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    1,143
    Location:
    Germany
    2008-2011 2500 units
    2012 2700
    2013 25.000
    2014 60.000
    2015 150.000
    2016 400.000
    2017 1.000.000
    2018 2.500.000
     
  4. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Without making any calculations I would think that this could not happen before 2020.
     
  5. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    2008-2011 2500
    2012 2700 (cumulative 5200)
    2013 23,800 (cumulative 29000)
    2014 36,000 Model S (cumulative 65000)
    2015 60,000 Model S/X (cumulative 125000)
    2016 80,000 Model S/X (cumulative 205000)
    2017 90k Model S/X, 80,000 Gen III (cumulative (375000)
    2018 90k Model S/X, 180,000 Gen III (cumulative 645000)
    2019 90k Model S/X, 270,000 Gen III (cumulative 1005000)
    2020 90k Model S/X, 350,000 Gen III (cumulative 1445000)

    So my guess is they'll hit 1m cars cumulative in 2019.
     
  6. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    OK, this is a realistic calculated guess. Let's say in December 2019.

    But I would expect Tesla Motors to unveil a Tesla Truck (Model T?) in 2018 or 2019 as well.
     
  7. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    There was an interesting article a few months ago reporting on a Goldman Sachs visit to the Tesla factory and interview w/Elon Musk:
    View ValueWalk article link

    In the article it mentions that "longer term" (I'm guessing 2020?) Tesla envisions selling 500k units:
    200k Gen III sedan
    150k Gen III SUV
    90k Model S/X
    60k(?) Next gen roadster

    It appears that Tesla (at that time) wasn't planning a truck after Gen III but rather the next gen roadster. But I think that the next gen roadster might be delayed as Gen III demand might surprise Tesla and they will have to focus on that.
     
  8. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

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    Dave T has it right. A truck will be in Tesla's future, but they will have lots of other priorities for quite a while.

    And since we're guessing, I'll go with 1 million cars by 2020. Gen III is a huge increase in production that, knowing Elon, will be a very slow ramp up to maintain quality.
     
  9. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    Will it be fair enough to say that Tesla Motors will have delivered cumulative & worldwide at least 250,000 Model Ses before 2020?
     

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