Where do you find your delivery estimate?

[K-MTG]

all you Vins in the mid 5XXX, what was your RN#? Just trying to work out the math since that all I have... well a RN# and a promise of Late May/Early June from a DS.

Mine was sequence 21xx

 

[umeshunni]

RNs have no correlation with delivery schedules or even VINs.

 

[evanevery]

There is "NO MATH". Cars are not being produced in order that the order was confirmed or in the order that the VIN was assigned. Cars are being manufactured based on parts availability and profit motive (more expensive vehicles first). So if your looking to try and predict something... Good Luck! No one else has been successful.

Most accurate info so far has a Monkey pulling VIN numbers out of a Scrabble bag until options match something just randomly slapped together...

:-(

 

[WABarb]

There is "NO MATH". Cars are not being produced in order that the order was confirmed or in the order that the VIN was assigned. Cars are being manufactured based on parts availability and profit motive (more expensive vehicles first). So if your looking to try and predict something... Good Luck! No one else has been successful.

Most accurate info so far has a Monkey pulling VIN numbers out of a Scrabble bag until options match something just randomly slapped together...

:-(

I think production vehicles are being produced using some logic including those that leverage efficiency. We are not privy to all of the data and it is unlikely that they would share that. @evanevery is correct - there is no direct correlation to be had from reservation# or VIN# as several folks have already said. Here are the groupings I think are happening:

proximity to factory (particularly in initial production) to aid in feedback and resolution
Option sets - More expensive first (P90D vs 70D) this is just good business and as I recall they made this clear during the ordering process.
by features - minimizes factory line resets for changes in configurations, they can produce more in a run, parts availability (eg 7 seat vs 6 vs 5) would affect this
by delivery destination - ship groups (Phoenix, Florida, Atlanta...etc), it's inefficient to ship vehicles one at a time.

There are likely other things that impact their decisions - from the obvious - seat problems to those that we do not know about (monkey food shortage). Tesla is figuring this out and I believe is trying to do everything they can to improve the situation. They have groups of relatively new DSs and we see the impact of that inexperience in the inconsistent customer interactions. I believe this is a short term situation - granted they created it themselves - but in the long run.. I am confident they will come out with a more buttoned up process that later Model x customers and the Model 3 customers will benefit from.

I'm not saying they are perfect - certainly doing a better job at communications and setting customer expectations would go a long way - I for one am excited to be part of what Tesla is doing.