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The range difference between the LR RWD and the LR AWD is pretty small. As the former is no longer available new, and Tesla has tweaked its efficiency numbers since the last time it was offered, it's unclear how big the difference is. As I recall, the last time the LR RWD was sold, it was rated at 325 miles, vs. 310 miles for the LR AWD. Even assuming a charge to 90% and leaving a 10% gap at the bottom, that 310 miles translates to 248 miles, which is 42% over the 175-mile commute distance. That's a comfortable enough gap for all but the very coldest of days. (Charging to 100% on a very cold day when you expect to drive 175 miles is reasonable, so long as you don't do it too often.) The extra ~15 miles (more like ~10 miles under those conditions) of the LR RWD could be useful on rare occasion, but if the commute really is that close to the line on a regular basis, I'd say that any Model 3 isn't adequate, at least not without charging available at work or maybe a Supercharger along the way.
I think I've done this math publicly before.... even ignoring AWD vs RWD...
310 miles rated, pretty close to best case.
Don't use the top 10% regularly.. 279 miles left.
Don't use the bottom 10% regularly... 248 miles left
Lose even 10% of battery capacity over 5 years...223 miles left
Use the HVAC system? lets call that a 20% penalty, best case... 178 miles left....
10% may be a good or bad estimate for loss over five years. I'm currently at 5-6% after 18 months and 32k miles.
Now lets redo the final number for a 240 mile starting range instead of 310...you'll have 138 miles of 'usable' range in winter, MAYBE. You are straying into Leaf territory right there, somewhere I really wouldn't want to be. The HVAC penalty is probably somewhat optimistic, too.
One other thing that I think has been mentioned... the larger battery on the LR comes with a longer warranty and bigger charger, both of which could be quite valuable given your long commute.