EV adoption, as Mengy tried so hard to explain to you, is not uncertain.
Have a look here at the most mature market , (Norway)
Ponder the chart.
Try and understand how, once adoption passes 5% , its accelerates very quickly ;
View attachment 833316
Who says that automatically once something passes 5% adoption, it accelerates quickly? That's not automatic. The United States is NOT Norway, not anywhere even close in terms of incentivizing and pushing drivers towards EVs. The world isn't. If Norway is on a scale of 0 to 100 in terms of pushing them, I'd put them at maybe 90 and the US at a 10 or 20. Some of the world is at 0.
And, you're making assumptions that there aren't constraints on manufacturing capacity and materials. You still haven't given an concrete answers to my questions. You really think that in the US where 14 to 17 million new automobiles are sold a year that in 5 years, everyone will want BEVs instead? Even if it were 51% (leaving 49% buying ICEVs), somehow all the EV makers are going to be able supply 7.1 million BEVs in a single year for the US alone in 5 years??? They also have to produce EVs for other markets.
As I said, hybrids (the kind you can't plug in) requires no habit change, no charging infrastructure, no installation of anything extra at home, no place to charge and has no range anxiety + they're available at many price points, equipment levels and levels of luxury.
12ft | from Jan 2022 says:
"U.S. sales of hybrid vehicle sales jumped 76% to 801,550 vehicles last year, accounting for 5% of U.S. light vehicle sales, according to data from analytics firm Wards Intelligence.
Sales of EVs also jumped 83% to 434,879, but represented a meager 3% of the market."
Electric vehicles and hybrids surpass 10% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales (latest EIA report I could find on this) put non-plugin hybrids at 6.1% of 4Q 2021 US auto sales, EVs at 3.4% and PHEVs at 1.4%.
As I said, as certain interests (e.g. fossil fuel, climate change deniers, auto repair shops, etc.) feel that their business and revenues are threatened, they will push FUD like
Electric Vehicles: Myths vs. Reality | Electric Vehicle Guide, like some of the same garbage that was parroted about hybrids. I've heard it all. When I had a Nissan 350Z, I remember one guy on my350z.com pushed FUD saying he wouldn't want to be in a hybrid because he'd be could electrocuted in a crash and first responders wouldn't want to rescue people due to high voltage (for their own safety).
Go look at social media responses to any posts by places like Car and Driver, Autoblog, Jalopnik on Facebook or in comment fields when it comes to any EV stories. You'll have all sorts of EV haters and doubters chiming in + all sorts of excuses about why an EV isn't for them or won't work for them, why they aren't ready, etc.
As more and more EVs are around, we will keep hearing more stories about fires (e.g. from vehicle defects) and from and charging mishaps at home, esp. given how many people buy random cheapo no-name EVSEs from places like Amazon (I see it all the time), do a DIY install with no knowledge of National Electrical Code. I've seen people who do bad work or ask questions that clearly shows they don't know what they're doing. Some of it is here on TMC. The media will pick up on fires and scare people. They will echo and amplify this + the FUD.
As a former Bolt owner, I already went thru that w/Bolt parking bans (
Bolt Parking Only), including at my work (long story) when only about 20 Bolts worldwide caught fire due to battery defects out of about 150K vehicles. (Yes, it's not good but the % is still lower than the % of vehicle fires that happen every year out of the entire US vehicle population.) Not surprisingly, a climate change denier group had something to say about it (
Bolt Parking Only).
Look at the media attention when there's a Tesla fire. I wonder if the media will run with
BMW USA Recalls i4, iX Models for Concerns Regarding High-Voltage Batteries.
, my own guess is that the transition to EV dominance unfortunately will be slower that some here are predicting, and for reasons already given in my earlier post and by cwerdna.
