Who gets reservations filled first?

[strider]

For reference from the Model 3 history they are prioritized by:

1. Geography
2. Trim level
3. Ability to pay
4. Reservation number

If you aren't in #1 or #2, then you won't even get the option to configure. It isn't until #4 would we get the to the prioritization of the reservation number.

I didn't follow the 3 or Y rollouts as I didn't reserve one. But how would they know your trim level before you configured?

I believe they will give people the option to configure by Reservation number. They will then build and ship based on whatever will allow them to make the most money (ship/deliver the most vehicles with the highest margin). If a bunch of early people configure a lower trim model, they will open up more reservations to configure until they get enough high trim orders. Then at some point they will start building the lower trim orders.

Historically they have built and shipped East Coast early in the quarter to allow for shipping time and then moved West as the quarter progressed, ending up with Bay Area deliveries being built and delivered virtually the same day. Now with CT being built in Austin it makes it easier since the factory is more central.

I'm glad I'm entertaining you. However, my question isn't a newbie silly question. I understand delivery issues in general, which I guess you could determine if you read my info below. It is not a silly question to ask whether I end up losing the option to configure a higher model if I get a notice to configure and all that is available at the time is a lower trim version. Why such a negative and personally insulting response?

You will not lose the option to configure nor your place in line. If you configure a different trim level than what they are building, your order will sit until they build that level. That being said, Tesla has historically shipped the most expensive models first and then the lower end later.

 

[Fairchild]

Pretty sure they also prioritized existing customers. Though there's so many now that's probably not going to be a thing.

Never a priority for existing customers.
They could care

 

[Fairchild]

Pretty sure they also prioritized existing customers. Though there's so many now that's probably not going to be a thing.

Never a priority for existing customers. Haha.They could care less! They made me drive all the way across the state to pick up my 9th Tesla. Offered to deliver it to my local Tesla dealer for $1500. Ya. Sure.

 

[Jedi2155]

I didn't follow the 3 or Y rollouts as I didn't reserve one. But how would they know your trim level before you configured?

I believe they will give people the option to configure by Reservation number. They will then build and ship based on whatever will allow them to make the most money (ship/deliver the most vehicles with the highest margin). If a bunch of early people configure a lower trim model, they will open up more reservations to configure until they get enough high trim orders. Then at some point they will start building the lower trim orders.

For the CT, when you first preordered you had to select a Trim level. I believe they removed that option a few months or a year later. Geography will definitely remain #1 I suspect, with Texas reservation holders going first followed by California and other states where they have a good service centers.

In terms of high margin options, I don't think Tesla will release more than one model at a time. For the Model 3, the only launched for LR RWD initially, then LR AWD and Performance simultaneously.

I think the CT will launch with Dual Motor AWD (300 mile range option) and Quad Motor AWD down the road 6-12 months later, then SR RWD.

 

[strider]

For the CT, when you first preordered you had to select a Trim level. I believe they removed that option a few months or a year later. Geography will definitely remain #1 I suspect, with Texas reservation holders going first followed by California and other states where they have a good service centers.

In terms of high margin options, I don't think Tesla will release more than one model at a time. For the Model 3, the only launched for LR RWD initially, then LR AWD and Performance simultaneously.

I think the CT will launch with Dual Motor AWD (300 mile range option) and Quad Motor AWD down the road 6-12 months later, then SR RWD.

They have now deleted the trim level that you selected upon ordering. Go look at your account. It's gone. There is literally no record of it in your account nor the Pre-order agreement to which you agreed when you reserved.

It's all well and good to speculate on what version will go out first. I can assure that Tesla will first ship the highest margin/most expensive version that they are able to produce. Now what that is will depend on a few things. Battery supply, readiness of quad motor, etc. AFTER they have segmented by trim level, they will move to geography. It will depend upon when they start shipping within a quarter. The earlier in the quarter, the further they will ship. As it gets closer to the end of quarter, they will ship/deliver closer to the factory.

 

[Fairchild]

I can assure that Tesla will first ship the highest margin/most expensive version that they are able to produce.

I would agree that may have been the case in all previous releases, but having already announced that it will be a 300 - 350 range version, we can almost be certain that is not a tri or quad motor version.

Even though the CT will not be constrained by demand, I see Musk making sure his price is competitive. His comment that the F-150 is a nice truck, but a bit too expensive, leads me to believe that volume now trumps margin for Tesla, and competitive pricing will definitely keep the price in range of the tax credit (under $80k). I am not sure you can build and profit off a quad for that price, not to even mention battery constraints.

Imagine a 350 range dual motor as your entry level model, under the tax credit cap to work the bugs out, followed by a quad 500 mile range monster truck above $100k.

That gives everyone what they want, at a price they can afford, and provides an elite model for those where $$$$$$s are not an issue.

The entry level model will be competitive with what's out there, and the elite quad will blow everyone away.

Just sayin'

The real question is...will we finally get the blind spot warning light in the mirror? It should be required of all vehicles on the road. They finally coughed it up on the new Model 3.

 

[strider]

I would agree that may have been the case in all previous releases, but having already announced that it will be a 300 - 350 range version, we can almost be certain that is not a tri or quad motor version.

We're arguing just to argue now, but on what basis do you make the above? Why would Tesla change what they've successfully done in the past? Remember, they will announce specs, pricing, and open configuration for multiple models. I just expect them to build the more expensive ones first so they can boost margins and increase the investment payback speed. The ONLY reason they wouldn't do this is if they aren't done with the performance model (although Elon just announced that he had driven it) or they are supply constrained for those components.

Also, with the S/X, LR and Plaid use the same battery pack. They have slightly different ranges due to the motor difference but there is no reason there couldn't be a 350 mile dual motor and 335 mile tri or quad performance model that uses the same pack for both.

Finally, the Hummer is still sitting out there. I don't think Elon will be able to let the CT start production without taking the performance crown.

EDIT: Just read the insideevs article about the EV Silverado. They stated that the RST (performance) model (using the Hummer drivetrain I presume) will be available in the Fall of 2023. Elon's ego will not allow Tesla to launch without an answer to this, since it will beat the CT to market.

 

[Phleabag]

My Cybertruck reservation number is 113430389 made in May 2020 (tri-motor + all available options). Any ideas where I am in line and possible estimate when I might get it? I would choose an Austin TX delivery. I would hope to get it before 2010 Roadster Sport's battery dies or I die (I'm 76)

 

[scrapps]

My Cybertruck reservation number is 113430389 made in May 2020 (tri-motor + all available options). Any ideas where I am in line and possible estimate when I might get it? I would choose an Austin TX delivery. I would hope to get it before 2010 Roadster Sport's battery dies or I die (I'm 76)

No

 

[Fairchild]

My Cybertruck reservation number is 113430389 made in May 2020 (tri-motor + all available options). Any ideas where I am in line and possible estimate when I might get it? I would choose an Austin TX delivery. I would hope to get it before 2010 Roadster Sport's battery dies or I die (I'm 76)

RN11293XXXX was made Nov 27, 2019, six days after the announcement and I am number 90,130. I would anticipate a delivery toward the end of 2024.
If that is of any help to you. Some folks will have already purchased other vehicles, some are multiple orders, and some will have dropped out.
Tesla is aiming to make 375,000 units a year (pipe dream).

 

[kruecab]

With Model 3, a lot of previous Tesla owners received cars well ahead of lower reservation holders even in the same delivery area. I’m pretty sure the reason is the software was not done, somewhat buggy, and some features not there. They prefer a repeat owner in these cases as they already know how to operate a Tesla and are more likely to be forgiving with the software. Our M3 delivery was lightning fast… like 5 min. They gave us keycards and made sure we had the app on our phones (both new innovations first seen on M3), and they wished us luck.

With our 2012 MS P85, we were projected for June - sept 2013 delivery but got an email in November that if we were still in California and ready to take delivery (pay) by December, we could have our car in 30 days. It was delivered in the first week of January 2013.

In my experience the factors that matter are:
1. Geography - closer to factory is better. TX will be a priority. CA as well because of the sheer demand they can send loads of trucks to CA and know they will get fulfilled quickly.
2. Readiness to buy - many people aren’t ready to buy when there RN comes up, they move on down the list to someone ready to buy.
3. Order matches the trim they are selling first - with MS that was 85kWh batteries, with M3 it was LR RWD. CT will be different as they’ve cleared the preferences, likely due to all the Elon fog, and will likely give everyone a chance to buy what they end up selling first. But if you don’t pick that, you’ll be delayed 6-12 months.
4. Prior Tesla owner - only applies to totally new vehicles like CT, not to refreshes. From what we’ve seen, the CT UX is considerably different than current models and the car is already complex with lots of new and different features from existing cars. Expect not everything to work right. Took months for us to get rear heated seats in our model 3 even though the hardware was present- just no UI for it. Tesla will want friendly users for the initial deliveries.

Those are my guesses but Tesla does work in mysterious ways.

 

[Fairchild]

With Model 3, a lot of previous Tesla owners received cars well ahead of lower reservation holders even in the same delivery area. I’m pretty sure the reason is the software was not done, somewhat buggy, and some features not there. They prefer a repeat owner in these cases as they already know how to operate a Tesla and are more likely to be forgiving with the software. Our M3 delivery was lightning fast… like 5 min. They gave us keycards and made sure we had the app on our phones (both new innovations first seen on M3), and they wished us luck.

With our 2012 MS P85, we were projected for June - sept 2013 delivery but got an email in November that if we were still in California and ready to take delivery (pay) by December, we could have our car in 30 days. It was delivered in the first week of January 2013.

In my experience the factors that matter are:
1. Geography - closer to factory is better. TX will be a priority. CA as well because of the sheer demand they can send loads of trucks to CA and know they will get fulfilled quickly.
2. Readiness to buy - many people aren’t ready to buy when there RN comes up, they move on down the list to someone ready to buy.
3. Order matches the trim they are selling first - with MS that was 85kWh batteries, with M3 it was LR RWD. CT will be different as they’ve cleared the preferences, likely due to all the Elon fog, and will likely give everyone a chance to buy what they end up selling first. But if you don’t pick that, you’ll be delayed 6-12 months.
4. Prior Tesla owner - only applies to totally new vehicles like CT, not to refreshes. From what we’ve seen, the CT UX is considerably different than current models and the car is already complex with lots of new and different features from existing cars. Expect not everything to work right. Took months for us to get rear heated seats in our model 3 even though the hardware was present- just no UI for it. Tesla will want friendly users for the initial deliveries.

Those are my guesses but Tesla does work in mysterious ways.

Now your heated seats will work after you unlock them for a fee.

What's next?

Pay extra for rude Musk comments??
Zip it Elon
You can take the boy out of Africa.
But you can't take Africa out of the boy.

Oh, that's right, Stockholders are already paying for that.

 

[Atomadam]

better be me....but hell i have no clue.

 

[EVNow]

You can take the boy out of Africa.
But you can't take Africa out of the boy.

Oh, that's right, Stockholders are already paying for that.

Racist Comments.

 

[Beerimar]

If the trims are completely different, then how would that make sense?
I don't know why people still think the $40k Cybertruck is still happening.

With reservations being still being open despite no clear understanding of the exact production date, anything other than "They'll be as greedy as they can be" is actual wishful thinking.

There will be some consideration to early reservation holders, but this isn't like Rivian where Tesla needs the loyalty of people who reserve early in order to stay in business. Early Rivian reservation holders were: placing a much more expensive deposit and were actually choosing the model they were reserving, down to the color and tire/rim size.

The way I see it going is:
Reservation holders will get to the order page based on when they placed their deposit.
There will be a limited number of "less than crazy expensive" trucks that when sold out, will be like the Tesla Model 3 LR right now where it says it's unavailable and "available Q1 2024" or something of that sort.
You'll then have a choice, you either order the more expensive unit available, or pass on your spot and it goes to the next person.

The other option is, they let you order but the site and/or Tesla tell you, "You're gonna wait a while for that one" and you'll see hundreds to thousands of the more expensive triple motor versions being sold/delivered.

That's as realistically optimistic as I can be. I seriously doubt Elon is going to just make a bunch of $65k trucks that could've been $95k trucks just because some people reserved back in 2019 and think it's "the right thing to do". How anyone can look at what he has done over the last six months and think he will prioritize who was early over who will pay the most, I have no idea what kind of rose colored glasses you'd need for that.

Haha, warned you all. Single motor not until 2025 and it’s $60k now. I even thought dual motor would be $80k. The only thing I was wrong about was that Tesla owners would get first priority.