well I was just using your own words:
"But if I did buy stocks, I can't imagine I'd think that TSLA was a good buy at $54"
We've had a lot of numbers and conjecture on what they might achieve; Problem with a TSLA investment is today's numbers value it at nothing. It's a speculative investment on future numbers which have been projected ad-nauseum. I guess my position is those are good exercises to form a framework for potential. After that, it's a risk of successes and failures of execution and even more, if the market will choose to displace current competing products. I don't think TSLA is an investment for a numbers game.. My $.02
Yes, I saw you used my word "imagine". I can imagine $100/share stock. I just can't imagine me thinking that today's stock is worth $55 to me.
Surely there's some point at which you would think TSLA is overvalued. Even John Petersen concedes that TSLA would be undervalued at some point. I think that the interesting question is where the most accurate valuation is. I feel that some people claim that TSLA is a buy because they like Tesla, not because they see it as providing good long term earnings for their investment. People liked tulips several hundred years ago. Others liked real estate not that long ago. Tulips were as lovely after the crash as before, and Silicon Valley land prices didn't crash because it turned out the weather here is actually lousy when everyone thought it was nice. I'm not trying to say that TSLA is a bubble. I am trying to say that to claim that a good company is a buy without considering the current market price can lead to disappointment. (and when everyone does that, then you can get bubbles).
I feel like math-agnostic buy recommendations happen a lot on this site. TSLA may have been a good value at $40/share. but the logic of "it's gone up to $55/share, therefore why are there still shorts?" seems odd to me. Maybe $40 was undervalued, but that doesn't mean that $55 is undervalued. If there were shorts at $40, shouldn't there be
more shorts at $55 (assuming I didn't miss some big battery breakthrough that will slash Tesla's costs or something).
I understand that a growth stock should have low earnings. If TSLA's net income in the next couple years exceeds what they need to pay back in loan money, I think they're doing something wrong.
but my point is that the company needs to grow a lot for it to be worth 1/6th of Audi.
Even with a successful Model S, Model X, and Gen 3, will the company be generating gross profit at about 1/6th of Audi's (even ignoring that Tesla will likely have higher operating expenses as they try to grow)? I don't think so. So I believe the current price has baked into it a Model S success, a Model X success, a Gen 3 success, and then success after that, too.
Anyway, I find the thread title to be an odd question. If the price jumped to $500/share tomorrow, would that be an even stronger reason for the shorts to cover their position? Not to me. If the price jumped to $500/share tomorrow, I'd actually break my rule of not buying/selling individual stocks, and open a short position in TSLA.