Why I gave up and bought a Prius Prime

[SageBrush]

No, we can. Someone who was on the waiting list deciding not to buy, for whatever reason, is a lost sale. There is nothing complicated about this.

It is a potential lost sale. There has to be a car to buy.

@slipnslider's 'lost sale' is the sound of one hand clapping.

 

[mhan00]

You said NO margins, though, didn't you? Now you're saying "better" margins.

Given the way they have to amortize R&D and infrastructure and the cost of the manufacturing lines across each unit sold, it is very possible they would have no margin on the base unit until after they have manufactured enough Model 3s to bring the amortization costs down. It absolutely makes sense to sell the more expensive version first if they think they have the demand to support that, and wait to manufacture the base unit after the variable costs have come down far enough to make it profitable.

 

[claudelaval]

I bought into, and still believe in, the promise of a Tesla for the masses. And me, I'm the masses. I really, really want an electric car. A 35k Tesla is just (barely) within reason for my finances. The other electrics don't appeal like a Tesla. Not at all.

But then my '04 Prius, best car I've ever owned, started calling for maintenance I wasn't willing to invest in at 172k.

And the math, it just doesn't lie. The farther away the ever-receding Tesla delivery date, the less rebate there will be. Put with that the fact that, after rebates and Toyota's aggressive moves to get rid of 2017 cars, the cost of my new Prius Prime got down to $16k. So we're talking probably $10-15k less than the M3. That is one major chunk of change to a lot of people, including me.

The EV mode range of the Prime is nothing major. But the overall mileage with regular charging becomes ridiculously high. It became really hard to justify waiting around for a Tesla. $10-15k will buy an awful lot of other things. Heck, maybe I'll finally get that vintage Gretsch guitar AND a car.

Thing is, the Prius Prime, which clearly has Tesla nods all over the place, is a really great car. It's some stiff competition for the ecology-minded buyer without a trust fund. Tesla is going to have more competition than it thinks.

I hope, like crazy, that by the time I'm ready to relinquish the Prius Prime, there's a Tesla that fits my needs and my budget. Because I'll still be rooting for it, and hoping there's one with my name on it. And I hope all of you who are waiting are rewarded in a big way when you finally get an M3. I'll be jealous.

waiting time for the M3 is nothing compare to the early MS owners...

 

[S'toon]

It is a potential lost sale. There has to be a car to buy.

@slipnslider's 'lost sale' is the sound of one hand clapping.

"What is the sound of one hand clapping?"
"A butterfly"
-Roadmarks by Roger Zelazny

 

[Seamless]

AHAHAH! is just the answer I can give following that...

Bad long term decision... You had something offered to you on a silver plate and you chose the least interesting option? ok... next...

Are you saying the something here is the M3, or is the Prius? If it's the M3, I don't think the metaphor holds, unless the silver plate runs $1,000 and its contents are steadily increasing in cost!

 

[N5329K]

Don't understand the flak. The car the OP wanted and needed, at the price he was willing and able to pay, was not available when he wanted and needed it. It may be available sometime sooner or later, but he needed a car now, not then, and so he bought one and everyone lived happily ever after.
What am I missing here?
Robin

 

[Seamless]

Don't understand the flak. The car the OP wanted and needed, at the price he was willing and able to pay, was not available when he wanted and needed it. It may be available sometime sooner or later, but he needed a car now, not then, and so he bought one and everyone lived happily ever after.
What am I missing here?
Robin

Nearly religious devotion to Tesla? Don't get me wrong -- I remain a major fan. I love what Elon M. is doing. It's truly fantastic that he's moved the goalposts so very far ahead of everyone else. I want in.

But as you say -- I needed a car. For around half the price, I got a fun-to-drive PHEV (this is not a Prius, friends, but a Prius Prime -- it drives VERY differently). It's averaging 71mpg, and I get to save my money for later acquisition of a Tesla or other electric that's likely to be a lot better than the base model I could snag now (er, within a year. Maybe. If I'm lucky). I'm playing the long game, is all! You nailed it.

 

[adaptabl]

It would be interesting to see haw far down the list of reservations they are. I suspect there are a large number cancelling or waiting for the $35,000 version promised.

 

[nvx1977]

It would be interesting to see haw far down the list of reservations they are. I suspect there are a large number cancelling or waiting for the $35,000 version promised.

Model 3 Invites #2 (There are two identical files to avoid the 100 users limit)

Go to the Invites sheet/tab at the bottom. You'll see they're still working through day 1 store reservation holders and some day 1 online reservations. Still on day 1. We should be much further along if there are massive cancellations.

Also, the spreadsheet tracks deferral and deferral preference. On the same Invites sheet/tab, if you scroll to the right, you'll see 2 pie charts. The bottom shows that roughly 25% are deferring. And of those 25%, a minimum of 25% are holding out for base config, and a maximum of about 60% are holding out for it, assuming ALL the unspecifieds represent base config, which is unlikely.

That means 6-15% of reservation holders are holding out for base config.

The population size on this spreadsheet is high enough for it to be extremely accurate. Its estimate on weekly build rate is also extremely accurate.

 

[Glamisduner]

I strongly considered the Volt. In the end, two things stopped me. One -- I got a lot more useful technological bells and whistles for less money with the Prius. If I'm gonna pay 39k for a well-equipped Volt, well, hello Model 3! Two -- every experience I've had with a GM was either bad or unnecessarily expensive (I've personally had 3 over the years, and my family drove nothing else). My first car was a Chevette, if that tells you anything. A Volt felt like a big risk in terms of reliability and longevity. And actually, there's three -- the fuel efficiency vs a consistently charged Prius is simply not as good.

And I have to say -- I've driven an 04 Prius for the last almost four years, and my commute to work in Vermont is mostly accomplished in the left lane, passing lots of other cars. I really enjoy the interactive nature of driving a Prius. It's really quite easy to move at a very good clip in them, particularly through the roller coaster of southern Vermont. I don't find the inclines an issue at all. You put the pedal down going up, lose your MPG like crazy, then get it back on the back side of the hill. Sure, they're not gonna beat anything off the line, but I don't really care about that. And my total for repair bills in the past four years? Zero dollars. Oil changes, tire rotations, and a battery -- all normal maintenance. Nothing else of any kind ever went wrong. Hard to want a non-Prius in the wake of that.

The Prime -- well, I drove it in full EV mode for an entire trip for the first time today. The acceleration was a lot of fun. I didn't find it lacking at all.

But I still bet a Volt is a great drive. They sound like contenders for sure.

I just bought a used 2013 volt with 140k miles for 8k (I get it, I couldn't wait any longer either!) So far it's the coolest car that I have ever owned. I'm getting about 45-48 miles off the battery on my commute 82 mile commute with combined economy of about 85mpg. I put it in gas mode (hold mode) for the hilly parts on the freeway, and battery around town (I get more off the battery than the 35 miles it's rated for due to regen I guess). If I put it in sport mode and punch it the acceleration is much better than a prius although nothing like a sports car and it feels like it will coast for days. The interior is great, all leather, comfortable seats (although not motorized), the bose factory sound is decent for stock stereo. The only thing it lacks from the new model is the longer EV range and updated tech (I'd probably be getting 60+ on the new volt off the battery) and android auto / apple car play.

Not sure what you mean about "the fuel efficiency vs a consistently charged Prius is simply not as good." You mean plug in charge or always charging? You can put the volt in mountain mode to have the engine charge the battery when gas mode, but it's less efficient than simple letting the volt do it's thing in gas mode. Converting gas to battery storage is never as efficient as just using the power. Or did you mean plug in charge every night because the volt does that too? The new volt has more than double the EV range of the prius prime as it is also a plug in hybrid. Also the Volt has a liquid cooled battery like the bolt and teslas, and the prius battery is just air cooled. Chevy did really well on their battery tech. The price difference between the 2 cars isn't was much as you would think either (you get a larger federal tax credit for the volt)

Final Scoring, Performance Data, and Complete Specs

Certainly both car's have their place, the volt only seats 4 people, although I wouldn't want to be in a prius with 5 people in it for very long anyways.

I plan to sell the used volt when my tesla becomes available. Hopefully without too much of a loss since most of it's depreciation has already hit.

1 gallon of gas in a volt will get you 53 miles ev (by specification) + 42 miles from the gas so that 95 miles for the first gallon of gas.

1 gallon of gas in the prius prime will get you 25 miles ev + 53 miles from the gas which is only 78 miles...

2 gallons of gas before a charge = 137 miles volt, 131 prius

So if your commute is over 137 miles without charging you will soon start saving gas with the prius over the 2017 volt. Of course you can probably get better range off either vehicle since I'm getting closer to 45 ev miles off my 2013 volt which is only rated for 35 miles of range. I'm consuming less than 1 gallon of gas per day on my 82 mile commute. MPG on the 2013 is only 36 miles per gallon in gas mode. By the math I should be using just over 1 gallon of gas, but that is not the case

 

[McRat]

2018 Prius Prime only seats 4, just like your 2013 Volt.
Starting in 2016, the Volt has 5 seat-belts. 3 teens/women will fit in the back.

The 2018 Prime will only use less gas than a 2018 Volt if you drive a lot of miles a year.
At 60,000 miles a year, the two cars break even in gas consumption, but you lose a seat and acceleration in all situations.
This does not count instances where you need power so the gas engine comes on. This only applies to the Prius. You must granny drive those 60,000 miles.

When you drive distances the average driver puts on their car, the Volt is far ahead, since the gas use falls to virtually zero.

 

[Glamisduner]

2018 Prius Prime only seats 4, just like your 2013 Volt.
Starting in 2016, the Volt has 5 seat-belts. 3 teens/women will fit in the back.

The 2018 Prime will only use less gas than a 2018 Volt if you drive a lot of miles a year.
At 60,000 miles a year, the two cars break even in gas consumption, but you lose a seat and acceleration in all situations.
This does not count instances where you need power so the gas engine comes on. This only applies to the Prius. You must granny drive those 60,000 miles.

When you drive distances the average driver puts on their car, the Volt is far ahead, since the gas use falls to virtually zero.

Nice, I had not researched the newer volts that much since I knew I would not be able to find one under 10k.

 

[Olle]

Let's be honest here if saving is the ultimate goal then getting a reliable used ice car would be the best option if your current Prius is not to a point where it is costing more to maintain then buying new. Otherwise fix the Prius and keep driving it.

So the best way to save even more doe:
1) keep using your current car and just fix it up.

2) buy used cheap reliable car

3) buy Prius or some other cheap hybrid or EV

4) buy other reliable cheap low maintenance low fuel cost ICE

5) buy tesla or expensive ev.

Cheaper still is a bicycle. After that comes a used LEAF. I have one and can testify that no old gas car comes even close to how cheap the LEAF is to run. Every year of fuel, maintenance and repairs on any old gas car buy almost a whole used LEAF in my experience.

 

[adaptabl]

Model 3 Invites #2 (There are two identical files to avoid the 100 users limit)

Go to the Invites sheet/tab at the bottom. You'll see they're still working through day 1 store reservation holders and some day 1 online reservations. Still on day 1. We should be much further along if there are massive cancellations.

Also, the spreadsheet tracks deferral and deferral preference. On the same Invites sheet/tab, if you scroll to the right, you'll see 2 pie charts. The bottom shows that roughly 25% are deferring. And of those 25%, a minimum of 25% are holding out for base config, and a maximum of about 60% are holding out for it, assuming ALL the unspecifieds represent base config, which is unlikely.

That means 6-15% of reservation holders are holding out for base config.

The population size on this spreadsheet is high enough for it to be extremely accurate. Its estimate on weekly build rate is also extremely accurate.

I do note that there are about 1700 first day reservations sent out already for non owners out of about 2300 total recorded reservations. They could be pretty far thru the list. From your numbers it looks like most of the reservations are first day. At 2,500/week they will go though them quick. It will be interesting if Tesla gives any details of reservation status at the share holders meeting for Q1.

Although you have a relatively large number of samples the samples are from this Forum that may not be accurate for the real world numbers.

It would be like going to a church and taking a poll on religion in America.

 

[nvx1977]

I do note that there are about 1700 first day reservations sent out already for non owners out of about 2300 total recorded reservations. They could be pretty far thru the list. From your numbers it looks like most of the reservations are first day. At 2,500/week they will go though them quick. It will be interesting if Tesla gives any details of reservation status at the share holders meeting for Q1.

Although you have a relatively large number of samples the samples are from this Forum that may not be accurate for the real world numbers.

It would be like going to a church and taking a poll on religion in America.

That spreadsheet is already been widely broadcast in mainstream media. Even Bloomberg references it often in comparison to its own tracker. I for one discovered that spreadsheet before I joined these forums. And with a sample size of 4000 people, all of which having put down a reservation for a 3, I'm not sure what your concern is regarding selection bias.

 

[Seamless]

I just bought a used 2013 volt with 140k miles for 8k (I get it, I couldn't wait any longer either!) So far it's the coolest car that I have ever owned. I'm getting about 45-48 miles off the battery on my commute 82 mile commute with combined economy of about 85mpg. I put it in gas mode (hold mode) for the hilly parts on the freeway, and battery around town (I get more off the battery than the 35 miles it's rated for due to regen I guess). If I put it in sport mode and punch it the acceleration is much better than a prius although nothing like a sports car and it feels like it will coast for days. The interior is great, all leather, comfortable seats (although not motorized), the bose factory sound is decent for stock stereo. The only thing it lacks from the new model is the longer EV range and updated tech (I'd probably be getting 60+ on the new volt off the battery) and android auto / apple car play.

Not sure what you mean about "the fuel efficiency vs a consistently charged Prius is simply not as good." You mean plug in charge or always charging? You can put the volt in mountain mode to have the engine charge the battery when gas mode, but it's less efficient than simple letting the volt do it's thing in gas mode. Converting gas to battery storage is never as efficient as just using the power. Or did you mean plug in charge every night because the volt does that too? The new volt has more than double the EV range of the prius prime as it is also a plug in hybrid. Also the Volt has a liquid cooled battery like the bolt and teslas, and the prius battery is just air cooled. Chevy did really well on their battery tech. The price difference between the 2 cars isn't was much as you would think either (you get a larger federal tax credit for the volt)

Final Scoring, Performance Data, and Complete Specs

Certainly both car's have their place, the volt only seats 4 people, although I wouldn't want to be in a prius with 5 people in it for very long anyways.

I plan to sell the used volt when my tesla becomes available. Hopefully without too much of a loss since most of it's depreciation has already hit.

1 gallon of gas in a volt will get you 53 miles ev (by specification) + 42 miles from the gas so that 95 miles for the first gallon of gas.

1 gallon of gas in the prius prime will get you 25 miles ev + 53 miles from the gas which is only 78 miles...

2 gallons of gas before a charge = 137 miles volt, 131 prius

So if your commute is over 137 miles without charging you will soon start saving gas with the prius over the 2017 volt. Of course you can probably get better range off either vehicle since I'm getting closer to 45 ev miles off my 2013 volt which is only rated for 35 miles of range. I'm consuming less than 1 gallon of gas per day on my 82 mile commute. MPG on the 2013 is only 36 miles per gallon in gas mode. By the math I should be using just over 1 gallon of gas, but that is not the case

You raise very good points. And what I meant was the proclaimed combined mileage of EV+hybrid mode in each. But the specific use cases certainly differ. I was strongly considering a Volt. But it was getting on up into M3 money for the Premiere trim. The other factor I considered, fairly or not, was GM vs. Toyota. I've had two Toyotas, a Celica and a Prius. Both were incredibly trouble free. I've had three GMs, and my family had several more. Every one of mine cost me a lot of money and a lot of time on the side of the road, and the same held true for the family. Maybe that's an antiquated notion -- I hope so. But it was a further strike.

I'd basically decided to buy a used Prius and coast on until the M3. But the price of a new Prime has gotten ridiculous in the Northeast, and it was that bargain factor alone that changed the equation for me.

My commute many days is 70ish miles. Other days, I go more like 90-120. Which as you say probably puts the mileage numbers in favor of the Volt. But in the end, it wasn't enough, considering other factors. My EV range is already well above the claimed 25, even in cold weather. I think it's reasonable to expect 30-35 miles, which closes the gap considerably with the Volt.

Thanks for your thoughtful analysis!

 

[SageBrush]

My commute many days is 70ish miles. Other days, I go more like 90-120. Which as you say probably puts the mileage numbers in favor of the Volt.

I think not. The ICE efficiency is just that much superior to the Volt. And remember that Volt owners "forget" about the the ~ 3x electricity consumption compared to the Prime each battery cycle.

For your driving habits (which are similar to mine) it works out about like this:
Similar oil consumption
Much less electricity consumption
Vastly less Nox and Sox generation
Similar CO2 generation

 

[Seamless]

I just bought a used 2013 volt with 140k miles for 8k (I get it, I couldn't wait any longer either!) So far it's the coolest car that I have ever owned. I'm getting about 45-48 miles off the battery on my commute 82 mile commute with combined economy of about 85mpg. I put it in gas mode (hold mode) for the hilly parts on the freeway, and battery around town (I get more off the battery than the 35 miles it's rated for due to regen I guess). If I put it in sport mode and punch it the acceleration is much better than a prius although nothing like a sports car and it feels like it will coast for days. The interior is great, all leather, comfortable seats (although not motorized), the bose factory sound is decent for stock stereo. The only thing it lacks from the new model is the longer EV range and updated tech (I'd probably be getting 60+ on the new volt off the battery) and android auto / apple car play.

Not sure what you mean about "the fuel efficiency vs a consistently charged Prius is simply not as good." You mean plug in charge or always charging? You can put the volt in mountain mode to have the engine charge the battery when gas mode, but it's less efficient than simple letting the volt do it's thing in gas mode. Converting gas to battery storage is never as efficient as just using the power. Or did you mean plug in charge every night because the volt does that too? The new volt has more than double the EV range of the prius prime as it is also a plug in hybrid. Also the Volt has a liquid cooled battery like the bolt and teslas, and the prius battery is just air cooled. Chevy did really well on their battery tech. The price difference between the 2 cars isn't was much as you would think either (you get a larger federal tax credit for the volt)

Final Scoring, Performance Data, and Complete Specs

Certainly both car's have their place, the volt only seats 4 people, although I wouldn't want to be in a prius with 5 people in it for very long anyways.

I plan to sell the used volt when my tesla becomes available. Hopefully without too much of a loss since most of it's depreciation has already hit.

1 gallon of gas in a volt will get you 53 miles ev (by specification) + 42 miles from the gas so that 95 miles for the first gallon of gas.

1 gallon of gas in the prius prime will get you 25 miles ev + 53 miles from the gas which is only 78 miles...

2 gallons of gas before a charge = 137 miles volt, 131 prius

So if your commute is over 137 miles without charging you will soon start saving gas with the prius over the 2017 volt. Of course you can probably get better range off either vehicle since I'm getting closer to 45 ev miles off my 2013 volt which is only rated for 35 miles of range. I'm consuming less than 1 gallon of gas per day on my 82 mile commute. MPG on the 2013 is only 36 miles per gallon in gas mode. By the math I should be using just over 1 gallon of gas, but that is not the case

PS-- I'm still discovering just how to approach my commute, because it's a tough one. One way is a series of steps to ever-higher elevation with one major peak of probably 1700 ft, from a starting point of 65 ft. After that, it's down and up again to half that elevation. Very tough on HV or EV. Going back is, of course, mostly downhill outside of that one peak.

 

[Glamisduner]

I think not. The ICE efficiency is just that much superior to the Volt. And remember that Volt owners "forget" about the the ~ 3x electricity consumption compared to the Prime each battery cycle.

For your driving habits (which are similar to mine) it works out about like this:
Similar oil consumption
Much less electricity consumption
Vastly less Nox and Sox generation
Similar CO2 generation

Well I think that happens when you put down more power and have a larger battery? But electricity is cheap anyways right? hah

I think it's reasonable to expect 30-35 miles, which closes the gap considerably with the Volt.

Thanks for your thoughtful analysis!

Yep but like I said, my volt is rated for 35 and I get 45+ every day on my work commute. If the new volts are rated for 53 then I would imagine Id be getting 65 or so ev miles. On longer commutes that exceed the EV range you get more regen when I think helps. Again price difference isn't much since you get a larger tax incentive with the volt. It's only a couple grand difference.

Your right though, if your a loyal toyota buyer there's nothing like another toyota. Toyota's do seem to hold their value well. I have not owned a GM car before and I have heard nightmare stories, but luckily I hear mostly positive things about the volts, and that they were over engineered

Volts have lost a ton of their value since they came out, but not for reasons of being terrible cars, mainly due to the tax incentive and improvements with the newer models, which is what made the used one attractive to me (no 2013 prius primes out there).

But now you might be able to wait for a used model 3 and save even more. I'm not planning to do that, although I thought about it after finding out how much I like the volt.

 

[Seamless]

I think not. The ICE efficiency is just that much superior to the Volt. And remember that Volt owners "forget" about the the ~ 3x electricity consumption compared to the Prime each battery cycle.

For your driving habits (which are similar to mine) it works out about like this:
Similar oil consumption
Much less electricity consumption
Vastly less Nox and Sox generation
Similar CO2 generation

That's very interesting. What makes for so much less electric consumption? I mean, besides the shorter EV range.