A lot of those people will profess EVs are junk and worthless until someone they trust buys one. Then they will buy one, and start bashing people that don't have one. Their logic is: people in my tribe good, everyone else bad.
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Why there can never be a "Tesla Killer" car
- Thread starter vandacca
- Start date
A lot of those people will profess EVs are junk and worthless until someone they trust buys one. Then they will buy one, and start bashing people that don't have one. Their logic is: people in my tribe good, everyone else bad.
I'm sure the perception will change quite rapidly in the next few years, but EVs are still a niche in the overall market today, with a LOT of people still unwilling to make the change for all sorts of reasons (however misled they may be).
I agree with your thinking too. The German brands are motivated to keep their EVs in a relatively low volume niche market while they continue to off-load their legacy ICE vehicles. I think the growing EV demand will easily soak up all the EVs on the market for the next few years at least. Tesla have a huge advantage in having no ICE products to consider, so I'm hoping the next generation of S/X will move the goalposts again when the competition has barely caught up with Tesla's current range.
I don't doubt Supercharging is a big factor for many people. It is also no surprise that such a group of people would be found amongst a Tesla owner's club - certainly a lot of Tesla owners chose the car based on this great feature. It will help make Model 3 a success, which it will be.
But so far this big-battery-BEV vs. a Supercharging-big-battery-BEV hasn't really been tested on the market, though (beyond Tesla's own early days, which supported my thinking though). I guess the Audi e-tron quattro will be the first real test - I-Pace volumes are fairly low - whether or not my point stands. If Audi can't sell the car, that would certainly be telling.
My thesis is simple: a large battery BEV even without any long-distance charging network will be a compelling product for certain (another) group of people - and not an insignificant group of people at that. My thinking is that the relatively limited charging networks for the likes of e-tron and I-Pace won't stop them from selling as many as they can make, because of this group of people.
Once you have a car that is always filled-up and ready for your daily life during sleeping (or working), that is a very interesting product for those whose daily life centers around a particular area. Many people have second or third cars that can handle the occasional long-distance too, as you point out, and some just don't need the feature at all.
Eventually those networks are needed of course to penetrate the full market (and even Tesla needs to solve the charging speed), even in my thesis, but not necessarily immediately.
We shall see if I'm wrong, of course.
I think you are right. There are already plenty of imminent iPace buyers talking about not needing long distance charging when confronted with the Supercharger argument! Plus they are counting on the public charging infrastructure maturing over the next few years, which it inevitably will as EVs become more mainstream.
Olle
Active Member
Maybe you are right that supercharging isn't a big factor for everyone. And if it is, Audi will partly solve it at least in the US with Electrify America and their Audi card that should work for all chargers.I don't doubt Supercharging is a big factor for many people. It is also no surprise that such a group of people would be found amongst a Tesla owner's club - certainly a lot of Tesla owners chose the car based on this great feature. It will help make Model 3 a success, which it will be.
But so far this big-battery-BEV vs. a Supercharging-big-battery-BEV hasn't really been tested on the market, though (beyond Tesla's own early days, which supported my thinking though). I guess the Audi e-tron quattro will be the first real test - I-Pace volumes are fairly low - whether or not my point stands. If Audi can't sell the car, that would certainly be telling.
My thesis is simple: a large battery BEV even without any long-distance charging network will be a compelling product for certain (another) group of people - and not an insignificant group of people at that. My thinking is that the relatively limited charging networks for the likes of e-tron and I-Pace won't stop them from selling as many as they can make, because of this group of people.
Once you have a car that is always filled-up and ready for your daily life during sleeping (or working), that is a very interesting product for those whose daily life centers around a particular area. Many people have second or third cars that can handle the occasional long-distance too, as you point out, and some just don't need the feature at all.
Eventually those networks are needed of course to penetrate the full market (and even Tesla needs to solve the charging speed), even in my thesis, but not necessarily immediately.
We shall see if I'm wrong, of course.
For Audi this may not be a good test of this theory for another reason: the price/performance isn't there.
If you look at the E-tron, it seems to be size wise a Q5 for the price of a Q7. Am I right? E tron top speed ranks as the slowest for any Audi made since, I think, 1984. I strongly believe that the majority of car buyers look at price/performance. Brand is important too, but price/performance can't be too far off even for a nice brand. This is the impression I get from many of both LEAF and Tesla buyers -cheapest way to drive at a specific level of size and performance. If this is true, E tron will be a very hard sell vs the Q5.
For the ones who definitely want and EV and are willing to spend E-tron money, this one will be a hard sell vs the much larger and faster Model S and X. That's why I think e-tron volumes will be relatively low. But it will do better than Mercedes EQC, which is even lower down the price/performance spectrum. We shall see.
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I believe the size is more like a Q6, though cross-over, more than an SUV. There certainly is an EV "tax" to the price, no doubt.
You are of course right other factors than charging network could hinder e-tron sales. Performance seems SQ5 ballpark in the 0-60/62 mph department, so not necessarily an issue there - sustained high-speed performance of course remains to be seen and that could be a factor in Germany.
I guess some hope remains the conservative specs could mean Audi could have prioritized sustaining high-speed performance more than Tesla? If the performance ends up simply being poor in reality, then it of course could be an issue. If OTOH they made a working trade-off in giving up some maximum acceleration to gain decent overall Autobahn performance, that might be OK...
Personally, I just can't see performance being the issue here, at least not yet. Top-speed seems high-enough. I know Tesla forums are all about the 0-60, as that is something Tesla has focused on and certainly excelled in (barring the overpromising with the P85D/P90DL), but I just can't see that as being a showstopper in this case. That's just my subjective feeling. I could be wrong.
Every car is a compromise around a number of specifications and features available with it. The question is, which compromises find their markets and how big markets. We shall see.
Personal anecdote: I can see many things in the Audi e-tron that I'd like over a Tesla. It would certainly give back some of the interior luxuries I lost when I moved from the Audi A8 to the Model S (and then X) and the user-facing camera system certainly is far more advanced in the Audi - especially here in Europe. But my Model X is only a year and half old, so I'm not really looking. For a second car (I might be looking a bit more), it is perhaps a bit big.
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Olle
Active Member
Sure, E-tron is doing well on acceleration. I was referring to its listed top speed of 200 kmh. Haven't seen an Audi with 200 or less since the dark ages
The base Model 3 will be the approximate size, range and performance of E-tron, except with higher top speed, imminent self driving capability and supercharging. Do I take that one for $35k or the Audi for $75k? hmm tough pick, gotta sleep on it
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Sure, E-tron is doing well on acceleration. I was referring to its listed top speed of 200 kmh. Haven't seen an Audi with 200 or less since the dark ages
I do get your point. It is not that uncommon in Europe, in lower-end models, though. These engines never make it to your shores, at least not in an Audi... Entry-level A1 tops out at 180 kph, Audi A3 1.2 TFSI at 193 kph. But yes, certainly different classes of car.
There are more models in the 210-220 kph range...What IMO is e-tron's make or break performance-wise is: can it sustain that 200 kph for longer periods of time, i.e. on the German Autobahn? A sustained 200 kph is certainly an OK speed on the Autobahn, you won't get trampled too much. A Tesla loses steam real fast in those conditions.
I guess nobody in public knows yet. If Audi has "limited" the top speed to guarantee better sustained performance, that could certainly be a worthy deal. If it is just a "bad" top speed and still fades super-fast, then not such a good deal, of course...
A sedan Model 3 has nowhere near the practical carrying capacity, nor has it many of e-tron's luxury or convenience features, though. While in theory they might attract attention from the same clientely due to the sheer limited amount of BEVs available (hard to find an exact personal match), they are very different types of vehicle.
In the one place where you actually can drive the top speed, a sedan is not often very desireable.
Olle
Active Member
Depends how you define luxury. Personally I find a clean interior with one big intuitive screen more luxurious than one with many screens and buttons. It really depends who you ask I think.I do get your point. It is not that uncommon in Europe, in lower-end models, though. These engines never make it to your shores, at least not in an Audi... Entry-level A1 tops out at 180 kph, Audi A3 1.2 TFSI at 193 kph. But yes, certainly different classes of car.
What IMO is e-tron's make or break performance-wise is: can it sustain that 200 kph for longer periods of time, i.e. on the German Autobahn? A sustained 200 kph is certainly an OK speed on the Autobahn, you won't get trampled too much. A Tesla loses steam real fast in those conditions.
I guess nobody in public knows yet. If Audi has "limited" the top speed to guarantee better sustained performance, that could certainly be a worthy deal. If it is just a "bad" top speed and still fades super-fast, then not such a good deal, of course...
A sedan Model 3 has nowhere near the practical carrying capacity, nor has it many of e-tron's luxury or convenience features, though. While in theory they might attract attention from the same clientely due to the sheer limited amount of BEVs available (hard to find an exact personal match), they are very different types of vehicle.
In the one place where you actually can drive the top speed, a sedan is not often very desireable.
Massage chairs is probably the one thing where everyone agrees that the Tesla is missing, especially S/X
I would agree that every car is a different set of compromises, of course.
With a Tesla you get a more aggressive auto-steer approach and the forward-looking potential of the AP system and large media screen with frequent software updates. The latter two's potential is so far pretty unique, though of course also carries the risk of lack of expected progress. Supercharging and general BEV performance are clearly Tesla's strong suits. Beyond that, Teslas are pretty basic though - some is minimalism, but there is also a distinct lack of features in many areas.
Downsides to the e-tron are that software and feature updates after delivery can be expected to be fairly minimal compared to Tesla. Also, until Audi gets their Level 3 deliveries going, for current/upcoming deliveries the steering assists are more reactive safety features than steering pilots - and of course even at Level 3 Audi's approach for the coming years differs much from Tesla's.
In addition to massage seats there are at least the following feature advantages and notable differences in an e-tron, compared to a Tesla:
* HUD
* Advanced user-facing camera system:
- Rotatable 3D camera views where your car is super-imposed on 3D view of the surroundings
- Also traditional 360 degree camera views
- IR night-vision camera with object recognition (e.g. pedestrians) and display
- Side-mirror replacing, adjustable cameras in Europe
* Matrix LED lights
- Not just auto on/off, but capability to highlight road features and recognized objects (e.g. pedestrians)
- Capability to adjust beam light to light to highlight road but not blind others
* Safety differences
- LIDAR and more radars for forward collision detection
- Radar-based blindspot and cross-traffic detection towards the rear
- Active speed-limit detection (AP2 only has a database currently)
* More comfort features
- Wider range of seat adjustments (as said, with massage)
- Four zone climate control with rear-seat controls
- Fragrance (active odorization)
- Color-adjustable interior lighting
- Google Street View
- Android Auto, Apple CarPlay
- Wi-Fi hotspot, more connectivity/media options
- Kick to open trunk
- Compared to Model 3: ventilated seats, heated steering, electric trunk close
- Compared to at least Model S: soft-close door motors
* Just different: Audi has three screens/touchscreens
- Instrument cluster screen (none in Model 3, comparable to Model S/X)
- Two-screen media system (partly tactile, but smaller than Tesla's big screen)
I can't say I don't miss some of this stuff in a Tesla. Mind you, I don't regret moving into Teslas back in 2014. The EV transformation is certainly worth it and the Autopilot adventure too has been (and I expect remains) interesting, to say the least. But I did leave a lot of convenience stuff behind and I doubt I'm alone in thinking it does have some value in purchasing decisions going forward, now that/once big battery BEVs are available from a larger set of manufacturers than just one?
Olle
Active Member
True. Whatever it is, it doesn't change the fundamental value which isn't there in any of theses 'Tesla Killers' compared to their exhaust siblings. Even if they were competitive, they would only help Tesla sell more cars as said many times in this thread.
Sure. I don't personally think of the current upcoming competitors as Tesla killers anyway, nor do I think any of their manufacturers do either. It is something the media has made up. The expected volumes alone for these won't be enough. I'm not personally sure I think they won't steal Tesla sales, they might take some, but again the volumes are not significant enough to threaten the growing e.g. Model 3 anyway.
I'm simply pondering the merits the competing cars may have, which I believe are sufficient to sell the cars to the not-insignificant audience I've mentioned. We shall see if/how they do sell, of course.
Thank you for a nice conversation!
