[Wild Speculation] Base Model 3 Sold At/Near Cost

[Lonnie123]

Just a fun thread while we wait for the reveal in March and eventual release...

What does everyone think of the possibility that Tesla might sell the most base Model 3 at, or very near, cost to manufacture?

Here's my line of thinking:

- They obviously have quite a bit of cost to shave to make a $35k, 200 mile range car that lives up to the Tesla name. I dont think they are going to sacrifice anything major in quality to get there.

- I think its a very safe bet that most cars will get optioned up, some quite a bit.

- Auto Pilot and Super Charging alone could easily add $3,500 - $4,000 to the price right off the bat and are essentially "free" to Tesla to "turn on." Even if Super Charging is free, Auto Pilot definitely wont be.

- Battery upgrade and Dual motor easily add another $10-15k. Performance engine and you're up another $5-10k.

- Cost to manufacture the battery will decrease over time, so they can keep the cost the same but the profits slowly go up on the car.

- The $35k price has been stated so often I just don't think they can realistically miss the mark by much and still get a "victory" like they would if they hit it. Knowing a vast majority of cars will get optioned up gives them quite a bit of reassurance that they wont be losing money on the deal if they offer the base model with almost no mark up.

How say you, TMC?

 

[nwdiver]

A fully optioned S is roughly twice the cost of a base S... I would expect the same to be true for the 3.

If the Gigafactory can get pack costs to ~$150/kWh then 60kWh pack would only cost $9k. The drivetrain is ~$5k. That still leaves ~$14k for the rest of the car while maintaining a healthy 20% margin.

Tesla might be able to get away with very low M3 margins the first quarter they are delivered but decent margins will likely be just as critical as the $35k price point after that.

 

[Lonnie123]

Tesla might be able to get away with very low M3 margins the first quarter they are delivered but decent margins will likely be just as critical as the $35k price point after that.

Absolutely, and I think that will happen quite easily because a vast majority of people will option up some portions of the vehicle.

Even I, who would never think of buying a $35k car will very likely spring for AP and Super Charging if its an add on. I wont get anything on top of that but those two could be potentially revolutionary in terms of road trips and such in the coming years.

 

[McHoffa]

A fully optioned S is roughly twice the cost of a base S... I would expect the same to be true for the 3.

If the Gigafactory can get pack costs to ~$150/kWh then 60kWh pack would only cost $9k. The drivetrain is ~$5k. That still leaves ~$14k for the rest of the car while maintaining a healthy 20% margin.

Tesla might be able to get away with very low M3 margins the first quarter they are delivered but decent margins will likely be just as critical as the $35k price point after that.

The goal is $100/kWh for the gigafactory so make that's $6000 for the battery. I think Tesla will build an impressive car and still make a small profit on the base model. They're a luxury brand so far and I don't think that will change. We'll see a very nice car that will blow away the Bolt in every way even at base level. I still think I'll max it out for whatever the equivalent of the P90DL is.