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[Wild Speculation] Base Model 3 Sold At/Near Cost

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Lonnie123, Jan 16, 2016.

  1. Lonnie123

    Lonnie123 Member

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    Just a fun thread while we wait for the reveal in March and eventual release...

    What does everyone think of the possibility that Tesla might sell the most base Model 3 at, or very near, cost to manufacture?

    Here's my line of thinking:

    - They obviously have quite a bit of cost to shave to make a $35k, 200 mile range car that lives up to the Tesla name. I dont think they are going to sacrifice anything major in quality to get there.

    - I think its a very safe bet that most cars will get optioned up, some quite a bit.

    - Auto Pilot and Super Charging alone could easily add $3,500 - $4,000 to the price right off the bat and are essentially "free" to Tesla to "turn on." Even if Super Charging is free, Auto Pilot definitely wont be.

    - Battery upgrade and Dual motor easily add another $10-15k. Performance engine and you're up another $5-10k.

    - Cost to manufacture the battery will decrease over time, so they can keep the cost the same but the profits slowly go up on the car.

    - The $35k price has been stated so often I just don't think they can realistically miss the mark by much and still get a "victory" like they would if they hit it. Knowing a vast majority of cars will get optioned up gives them quite a bit of reassurance that they wont be losing money on the deal if they offer the base model with almost no mark up.

    How say you, TMC?
     
  2. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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    A fully optioned S is roughly twice the cost of a base S... I would expect the same to be true for the 3.

    If the Gigafactory can get pack costs to ~$150/kWh then 60kWh pack would only cost $9k. The drivetrain is ~$5k. That still leaves ~$14k for the rest of the car while maintaining a healthy 20% margin.

    Tesla might be able to get away with very low M3 margins the first quarter they are delivered but decent margins will likely be just as critical as the $35k price point after that.
     
  3. Lonnie123

    Lonnie123 Member

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    Absolutely, and I think that will happen quite easily because a vast majority of people will option up some portions of the vehicle.

    Even I, who would never think of buying a $35k car will very likely spring for AP and Super Charging if its an add on. I wont get anything on top of that but those two could be potentially revolutionary in terms of road trips and such in the coming years.
     
  4. McHoffa

    McHoffa Member

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    The goal is $100/kWh for the gigafactory so make that's $6000 for the battery. I think Tesla will build an impressive car and still make a small profit on the base model. They're a luxury brand so far and I don't think that will change. We'll see a very nice car that will blow away the Bolt in every way even at base level. I still think I'll max it out for whatever the equivalent of the P90DL is.
     

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