Will the base model include Auto-pilot hardware?

[aronth5]

One of the more interesting questions is, will the "base" Model S include auto-pilot (AP) hardware?
My guess is yes. I just don't see Elon ever making a car that doesn't support AP. They are doing that now with the Model S.
As the software improves there will be significant money on the table for Tesla, so for buyers who initially didn't pay to enable AP will likely pay extra to enable it.
Also, the argument can also be made that the cars's added re-sale value will more then make up for the cost of the hardware.

What do others think?

 

[Lex]

I'd expect to see things that worked, in particularly financially, to transition to the Model 3. They reported that Autopilot on MS at least breaks even, with some folks getting hardware they never fully activate, but those that do more than make-up for it (at least with the hardware costs).

Don't expect a budget box, even though there will need to be a pretty basic model this is Tesla after all... so if they totally leave-off the hardware on a very basic base model, it would be a statement to consumers to not but that model, I'd suggest, as Autopilot is one of the biggest features of my MS, and more Autopilot-enabled cars make the roads safer IMO.

 

[Breezy]

I think the hardware will be there. Tesla is one manufacturer that's committed to have auto-braking on all their cars. I think Autopilot-type features will be available on many mass market cars by the 2018-ish time frame when the Model 3 is available.

 

[Yggdrasill]

It will definitely have autobraking, and probably lane departure warning, blind spot detection, etc. To get full score in the NCAP testing you need at least autobraking, and by the time the Model 3 is available, the requirements will probably have increased even more.

I'm not sure whether some sensors will be optional. I can see Tesla chosing one or the other based on various considerations, and it's very hard to predict which considerations will tip the scales. I doubt even Tesla would be able to say firmly what they plan at this point.

 

[Lonnie123]

No. Nothing that is an upgrade on the Model S will come free on the Model 3, why would it?

It isn't available on their $70,000 car, no way in hell you get it for free for half that. The base model will be very, very basic (obviously this is me speculating). The Model 3 most people will actually want/order will be north of $45k, and likely $50k. I think a great many people will add the Auto Pilot for $2,500, and the Dual Motor for $5,000, the largest battery size for anywhere between $7-15K, and a smaller amount will get the Performance model for another $10k. The decked out Model 3 will likely approach the base price of the S70

This is how Tesla will be able to advertise the base car for $35k, because a ton of people wont be buying it, and will end up with a car that costs $50-60k

 

[Tezlah]

No. Nothing that is an upgrade on the Model S will come free on the Model 3, why would it?

It isn't available on their $70,000 car, no way in hell you get it for free for half that. The base model will be very, very basic (obviously this is me speculating). The Model 3 most people will actually want/order will be north of $45k, and likely $50k. I think a great many people will add the Auto Pilot for $2,500, and the Dual Motor for $5,000, the largest battery size for anywhere between $7-15K, and a smaller amount will get the Performance model for another $10k. The decked out Model 3 will likely approach the base price of the S70

This is how Tesla will be able to advertise the base car for $35k, because a ton of people wont be buying it, and will end up with a car that costs $50-60k

I agree that nothing that is an upgrade on a 2018 Model S will come free on a 2018 Model 3, however if Tesla makes autopilot a standard feature (activated) across all Model S/X vehicles in 2016/2017, I don't think it's that far fetched to think that Tesla could make autopilot a standard feature across all current/future vehicles. Do I think it's "likely" that Tesla will do this for the Model 3? No, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened. Time will tell.

 

[Yggdrasill]

No. Nothing that is an upgrade on the Model S will come free on the Model 3, why would it?

The autopilot hardware is standard on the Model S.

 

[Lonnie123]

The autopilot hardware is standard on the Model S.

No, not really. I understand that technically the capability is there already, but you have to pay to turn it on, it is not included in the base price. It is still possible to buy a Model S and not have Auto Pilot, to my this violates any reasonable persons definition of "standard" ... comes with the car for the base price. Not that every car has the option to pay to enable it.

 

[ecarfan]

The autopilot hardware is standard on the Model S.

Yes the hardware is built into every S and every X but the information from that hardware as processed and displayed by the cars firmware requires the purchaser to pay Tesla the price of the AP option.
I'm sure you know that, but not everyone reading this thread will know that.

 

[aronth5]

Yes the hardware is built into every S and every X but the information from that hardware as processed and displayed by the cars firmware requires the purchaser to pay Tesla the price of the AP option.
I'm sure you know that, but not everyone reading this thread will know that.

The thread was started simply to ask if people thought the AP hardware and only the AP hardware would be included in the Model 3. Enabling it is a separate question and will certainly be an option. My belief is that just like the Model S the Model 3 will include at least the basic set of AP hardware and possibly the same hardware sensor as the S and X. AP seems very important to Elon and I doubt any car will leave the factory without sensor hardware. The revenue Tesla can make on the software enabling option for 350k cars at $2,500 per car is 875 million dollars. Hard to ignore. Whether there will be a premium level of hardware for advanced AP is another question.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I suspect tesla business model will change once model 3 production at couple hundred thousand a year. Of course you will be able to order car to be built and wait for it but I suspect they will build inventory cars that you can buy off the lot. Most buyers now get a color they can live with and options that they need plus those that they don't because car is on lot and they will drive car home from the lot that has been in inventory same day they shop. This model makes sense with higher volume and lower cost cars.

 

[Lonnie123]

The thread was started simply to ask if people thought the AP hardware and only the AP hardware would be included in the Model 3. Enabling it is a separate question and will certainly be an option. My belief is that just like the Model S the Model 3 will include at least the basic set of AP hardware and possibly the same hardware sensor as the S and X. AP seems very important to Elon and I doubt any car will leave the factory without sensor hardware. The revenue Tesla can make on the software enabling option for 350k cars at $2,500 per car is 875 million dollars. Hard to ignore. Whether there will be a premium level of hardware for advanced AP is another question.

Good catch. If the original intent of the thread was will the hardware be installed I think the answer is Yes... That seems like a no brainer

If the question is suppose to ask if "autopilot" will be included (to me that means actually being able to use Autopilot, not just having cameras on the car) than I think the answer is no.

 

[aronth5]

Good catch. If the original intent of the thread was will the hardware be installed I think the answer is Yes... That seems like a no brainer

If the question is suppose to ask if "autopilot" will be included (to me that means actually being able to use Autopilot, not just having cameras on the car) than I think the answer is no.

And if the hardware is included as I suspect the majority believe that is just one more challenge for Tesla to deal with as they target a $35k base price.
One wonders if Elon was even considering the added AP hardware when the $35k target was announced? Does anyone have a guess as to how much the hardware alone might cost?

 

[Discoducky]

The base model 3 will most likely include the ability to ensure NHTSA 5 star (all categories) for the foreseeable future and to do that it must include a set of sensors and functionality that the current model S autopilot hardware delivers. Therefore, yes, all will include autopilot hardware.

 

[Zwalderon]

Does anyone have any serious doubt the hardware will be present? Of course it will be. No way would Elon not include it. It would be counter to his philosophy.

 

[anxman]

The hardware will be on all cars. The safety features will all be included for free but autopilot and autonomous features will require an upgrade to unlock the software.

 

[WarpedOne]

The question and answer boils down to two distinct but related questions:
- what is the material price of AP hardware minus cost of manufacturing complexity of optional AP HW?
- what is pickup rate of optional AP?

I bet the AP HW will be there in model3. Less complexity (==higher reliability, less problems), more options for customers who get the option of "don't pay the full price immediately".

Cost of AP HW is bakshish

 

[vwtodd]

It is almost certain. Remember, the current S has the hardware by default - you pay to activate. Elon wants an autonomous fleet, so you can bet that every single car will have the hardware. You may not activate it, but if your car is leased, or resold, having the capability is only an asset. Elon also said that non-autonomous vehicles will be a novelty, and they are going for mass market. Done deal on AP hardware.

 

[Twiglett]

It is almost certain. Remember, the current S has the hardware by default - you pay to activate. Elon wants an autonomous fleet, so you can bet that every single car will have the hardware. You may not activate it, but if your car is leased, or resold, having the capability is only an asset. Elon also said that non-autonomous vehicles will be a novelty, and they are going for mass market. Done deal on AP hardware.

The extra weight on the side of including the hardware is that even the inactive features will still be capable of providing telemetry data to improve the overall system.
Remember that this is one of the huge advantages Tesla has in this field.