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Will the global vehicle market (all automakers combined) be bigger or smaller in 2030 and why?

SteveG3

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Sep 21, 2012
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last year global vehicle sales were roughly 85 million, and they are widely projected to be roughly 100 million in 2020. where will they be in 2030?

outside of short-term shocks like the 2008 financial crisis, the trend has been upward for at least as far back as I could readily find data, 1950 onwards https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...-Motor_Vehicle_Prod_volume_RITA_T1-23.svg.png

this long standing upward trend may reverse in the next ten to fifteen years. how likely is a reversal? how dramatic might it be? could the total pie shrink so quickly to impact Tesla's progression from it's goal of ~0.1% of the pie this year and 1% of the pie in 2020, to x% of the pie in 2030?

of course, the driver of this potential reversal is the coming of the autonomous car.

where and when will autonomous cars come into usage? will car ownership fall off sharply only in urban areas? how will it impact a typical family in the suburbs?

what are the counter trends, and where will things net out?

how much will the wealth gap (and in some cases, roadway quality gap) close for billions of people outside of the bulk of the current vehicle market?

the case for a rapid decrease in car ownership often refers to the fact that today vehicles are only in use 4% of the time on average. fleets of autonomous vehicles would dramatically increase that usage percentage. however, to what extent would that increase usage increase the wear and tear on the vehicles and therefore shorten their years of use, and increase demand for new vehicles (a separate but related question is how much more usage will EVs turn out to have over ICE, and what the breakdown of EV/ICE ratio will look like over time).

how much will car ownership be an aspirational choice in the traditional and emerging markets for vehicles?

how much is car ownership based on pleasure vs. efficiently getting from point A to point B among us collectively?

so, will the global car market be bigger or smaller in 2030 vs 2020 and why?
 
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adiggs

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Sep 25, 2012
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I'm with @McRat on this one - bigger, or at worst, flat. 2030 -might- mark the point where we start seeing autonomous cars significantly offsetting the factors he identifies. I say that fully expecting that we'll be seeing truly autonomous cars on the road by then, but legal, regulatory, liability, insurance, ... issues won't resolve in weeks or months. I also expect we'll see them resolve partially in different jurisdictions, leading to better learning and resolution in other districts.

My simple point, it'll take time - we won't see demand for new cars, in total, fall off a cliff due to overwhelming demand and use of autonomous cars by 2030.


I'm comfortable with the idea that 2030 might represent the beginning of the flood gates for that transition, and I believe that there is a world out there in the 2030-2050 time frame, where the annual market for new cars is closer to 25-50M than 100M (all EV, higher average fleet utilization by a lot, longer life cars, but still needing regular replacement).
 

bonaire

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Aug 24, 2013
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Bigger.

People cannot stop procreating. World Population Clock: 7.5 Billion People (2016) - Worldometers

Population growth just today will be over 200,000.
Population growth this year to date is nearly 60 Million extra people.

With China's new 2-baby allowance, teenagers in the growing middle class there will want a car.
The world wants to live a life of middle-class just like the USA did in the years after 1950s. Resource usage will continue to go up even if renewables are installed at record rates.
 

adiggs

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Sep 25, 2012
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Portland, OR
The growth trend on population says the world will reach steady state on population at a total of around 11B people in around 2100. The obvious driver of a growing population, more babies, has already reached global steady state, with the number of children aged 1-15 steady at around 2B for decades.

The continuing growth in populations is due to better health care, leading to more and more people in higher aged brackets.


The two obvious events / factors I can think of that would materially change the global trend to a world population of 11B people are:
- a change on the health care front, that makes dramatically longer life spans reasonably accessible. Like people are routinely living to 100 or 120 kind of change (your decision about the likelihood). (= even higher total population)
- global scale catastrophe leading to massive species die-off. (= lower total population)


Back to the context of annual auto industry units, that's adding 3.5B people to the 7.5B we have - not quite 50%. I see the global trends towards living a middle class lifestyle, including owning a car (even 1 car for the family instead of 2+), being an insanely popular and attractive accomplishment for families. Even if it's only being utilized 4% of the time. I believe this is the dominant trend that will continue driving global volumes higher, with the counter trend of Uber / ride-sharing / autonomous vehicles, at least for the next 10-20 years, providing something of a counterweight to the dominant trend.

The day we look around ourselves on the roads, and any vehicle being manually piloted by a human is the exception than the rule, is the day when this has flipped on its head. We're a LONG ways away from that (by which I mean, at least 10-20 years).

On the plus side, at least for me, that's a time scale that I expect to witness myself. And I think that's pretty darn cool.
 
When autonomous cars become commonplace (don't think it will happen by 2030) the industry will start shrinking.

Private cars will becoming moving offices/living rooms. Speed, handling, safety will become normalized. People will not only make fewer car purchases, they'll upgrade the interior of the car before replacing the entire car.
 

RobStark

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Jul 2, 2013
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Los Angeles, USA
People will still want to use the cars at roughly the same time.

Not a lot of demand for ride sharing services Sunday through Thursday between 11 PM and 5 AM for example.

I doubt the price for ride sharing for someone that commutes 5 days per week plus takes 2 trips on the weekend will be cheaper than buying an autonomous electric car and keeping it for 15 years. After a few iterations BEVs will last MUCH longer and require MUCH less maintenance, will park and charge themselves. Removing much of the hassle of car ownership. Plus you can't just leave your stuff in the car.

When autonomous vehicles are allowed to drive without a human driver it will no longer require car owners to have a drivers license, eliminating the contention about how young people have lower acquisition rates of vehicle drivers license.

Analyst who compare ride sharing price vs leasing a near luxury car for 36 months and then reupping have it all wrong.
 
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GoTslaGo

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Dec 25, 2015
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Bigger.

As people get more money and enter the "middle class" one of their first aspirations is to get a car. Witness the explosion of cars in China. We haven't achieved that density of wealth yet in India (1 billion people), or in much of Africa.

Hopefully these and other regions will achieve greater economic gains by 2030 to allow a larger proportion of their population to be "middle class". They will want to buy cars at that time.

The goal will be to provide sustainable cars, and hopefully desirable EVs like Tesla will be the norm. We have already seen what an explosion of prosperity coupled with ICE vehicles have done in China.
 
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winfield100

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Feb 16, 2013
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[QUOTE="so, will the global car market be bigger or smaller in 2030 vs 2020 and why?[/QUOTE]

smaller, at least in the US.
data points, 3.

I and another boomer family (birthdates late 1940's early 1950's)
4 children, millenials. 1, age 28, abandoned a paid off minicooper to use uber and subway, 1 uses uber and prius, lots of uber,
other boomer family, one millenial age 25 uber exclusively, no drivers license, 1 rarely drives, (all children age 24-28)

3rd family, both uber and drivers. (younger)
the trend is downward in my opinion

i somewhat agree with RMI (Rocky mountain Institute that "Peak Car" will be in about another 5 years depending on rate of autonomous vehicle uptake

https://rmi.org/Content/Files/CWRRMI_POVdefection_FullReport_L12.pdf
 

winfield100

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any updates? how is Uber and Lyft doing? increasing or decreasing? an example. Washington DC announced removal of 66 parking spaces in area where lots of night life goes on. how is autonomous driving going? increasing? flat? what does it cost per month/year to own a car and just park it 95% of the time $200/month? $300/month? more? what could you do with $4,000 more per year? what if you don't have $4,000/year?
 

bonaire

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Aug 24, 2013
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Some logical thinking but I need to use 2035 as a target due to it being one "late teen generation from here".

Global vehicles track population growth.
Population will be growing by at least 1.1 Billion by that date to 8.7B,
This is babies and young people, in general but they will eventually drive.
The population that has been babies and young adults from 2000-2017 are now starting to drive/ride.
Scooters are popular in massive cities like Mumbai, Chinese mega cities and similar.
Populations of eBikes, scooters and small NEVs will grow faster in unit-count than larger sedans and CUV+.
However, all this population bloom will "blossom" into 2035 and surely grow the transportation demand.
Energy use will continue to grow and be up at least 10-15% of all fuels by 2035 vs. 2017.

Population growth is this planets biggest problem in terms of how it will survive the end of oil and natural gas. Resource depletion is not a political issue - because it will "happen after my term". And all economists and politicians continue to push for "strong economic growth". China going to 2-child policy to bolster their economic condition.

We grow now so our current economy makes (some of us) wealthy. But think about what is to come by 2050 and then later when oil runs out for whatever the politicians pushed the world population size up to does with the loss of the easy energy. Good luck to our grand-children and theirs.

Learn more about the real need to slow down the economy, population growth and resource consumption at www.steadystate.org. And www.growthbusters.org.

Now what do I say to my friend who has 10 kids? How about all the other families at my church who are producing 3-4 good looking young girls in their young families? I heard on the radio about a lady displaced by one of the hurricanes using church funds to put a deposit down on an apartment where she could live with her FIVE CHILDREN and meet their living paycheck to paycheck situation. Sheesh.
 

bonaire

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Aug 24, 2013
2,482
1,079
USA
any updates? how is Uber and Lyft doing? increasing or decreasing? an example. Washington DC announced removal of 66 parking spaces in area where lots of night life goes on. how is autonomous driving going? increasing? flat? what does it cost per month/year to own a car and just park it 95% of the time $200/month? $300/month? more? what could you do with $4,000 more per year? what if you don't have $4,000/year?

In the USA, with 50% of the population living paycheck to paycheck and managing to own vehicles - convenience is their prime concern. What if all the people in homes in the forest fire region of CA had to wait for Ubers to come pick them all up and take their stuff out? Uber works in college communities and cities. However, not everyone wants to live in "sardine cans" in cities. Some want the freedoms that this country offers (even though it is a cause of heavier per-capita resource usage). Everyone pushing for car-share, how many live in cities already or tight local suburbs and don't need a vehicle anyway? While energy entropy grounds everything to nil - human entropy seems to want growth and diversity as it's end goal. I don't want to live in a city apartment without a vehicle. Who feels that is a great life goal?
 

bonaire

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Aug 24, 2013
2,482
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USA
One of the best things for India and China would be huge advances in Li-S batteries (very high density). Then put them into Scooters and eBikes. This will serve the per-capita transportation needs of billions of people without selling them 2-cycle engine scooters or 4-cycle. Both are high-emitters in the East.

What might power these eBikes and scooters?

As Beijing Joins Climate Fight, Chinese Companies Build Coal Plants
 

winfield100

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Feb 16, 2013
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In the USA, with 50% of the population living paycheck to paycheck and managing to own vehicles - convenience is their prime concern. What if all the people in homes in the forest fire region of CA had to wait for Ubers to come pick them all up and take their stuff out? Uber works in college communities and cities. However, not everyone wants to live in "sardine cans" in cities. Some want the freedoms that this country offers (even though it is a cause of heavier per-capita resource usage). Everyone pushing for car-share, how many live in cities already or tight local suburbs and don't need a vehicle anyway? While energy entropy grounds everything to nil - human entropy seems to want growth and diversity as it's end goal. I don't want to live in a city apartment without a vehicle. Who feels that is a great life goal?
Some logical thinking but I need to use 2035 as a target due to it being one "late teen generation from here".
babies and young people, in general but they will eventually drive.
we disagree on this point, if you had said "n general but they will eventually ride", that i would agree with.
I was not talking about rural areas, but urban ones

Now what do I say to my friend who has 10 kids? How about all the other families at my church who are producing 3-4 good looking young girls in their young families? I heard on the radio about a lady displaced by one of the hurricanes using church funds to put a deposit down on an apartment where she could live with her FIVE CHILDREN and meet their living paycheck to paycheck situation. Sheesh[/QUOTE said:
what you should say to the lady with 10 kids, or 3-4 children, or 5 children, is ask them how will _they_ support _their_ children?
there are far less polite responses that don't belong here
however, as my mother told me
"The world is a cold and cruel place, it cares not if you live or die, it's up to you and you alone, no one else"

however, this is not a discussion about Malthus, but the decline of ICE vehicles
happy investing
Alohaha
Mahalo
 
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winfield100

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Feb 16, 2013
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some further points to consider
what will be the monthly/yearly carrying costs to _own_ a verhicle vs simply _ride_ in a vehicle
my costs are vaguely
$20,000 down payment
$458/month purchase payment
$170/month insurance
$25/month electricity to drive
$100/month gasoline to drive
$random small amounts maintenance and such
About $750/month just to own or about $9,000/year
I could pay for a lot of Uber and Lyft rides and have money left over
more and more younger people with much less disposable income see these figures also
 

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