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Will the global vehicle market (all automakers combined) be bigger or smaller in 2030 and why?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by SteveG3, Sep 19, 2016.

  1. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    last year global vehicle sales were roughly 85 million, and they are widely projected to be roughly 100 million in 2020. where will they be in 2030?

    outside of short-term shocks like the 2008 financial crisis, the trend has been upward for at least as far back as I could readily find data, 1950 onwards https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Motor_Vehicle_Prod_volume_RITA_T1-23.svg/350px-Motor_Vehicle_Prod_volume_RITA_T1-23.svg.png

    this long standing upward trend may reverse in the next ten to fifteen years. how likely is a reversal? how dramatic might it be? could the total pie shrink so quickly to impact Tesla's progression from it's goal of ~0.1% of the pie this year and 1% of the pie in 2020, to x% of the pie in 2030?

    of course, the driver of this potential reversal is the coming of the autonomous car.

    where and when will autonomous cars come into usage? will car ownership fall off sharply only in urban areas? how will it impact a typical family in the suburbs?

    what are the counter trends, and where will things net out?

    how much will the wealth gap (and in some cases, roadway quality gap) close for billions of people outside of the bulk of the current vehicle market?

    the case for a rapid decrease in car ownership often refers to the fact that today vehicles are only in use 4% of the time on average. fleets of autonomous vehicles would dramatically increase that usage percentage. however, to what extent would that increase usage increase the wear and tear on the vehicles and therefore shorten their years of use, and increase demand for new vehicles (a separate but related question is how much more usage will EVs turn out to have over ICE, and what the breakdown of EV/ICE ratio will look like over time).

    how much will car ownership be an aspirational choice in the traditional and emerging markets for vehicles?

    how much is car ownership based on pleasure vs. efficiently getting from point A to point B among us collectively?

    so, will the global car market be bigger or smaller in 2030 vs 2020 and why?
     
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  2. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    Bigger. Population growth, and improved income in the poorer countries, will increase car demand, especially in the lower priced models.
     
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  3. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    I'm with @McRat on this one - bigger, or at worst, flat. 2030 -might- mark the point where we start seeing autonomous cars significantly offsetting the factors he identifies. I say that fully expecting that we'll be seeing truly autonomous cars on the road by then, but legal, regulatory, liability, insurance, ... issues won't resolve in weeks or months. I also expect we'll see them resolve partially in different jurisdictions, leading to better learning and resolution in other districts.

    My simple point, it'll take time - we won't see demand for new cars, in total, fall off a cliff due to overwhelming demand and use of autonomous cars by 2030.


    I'm comfortable with the idea that 2030 might represent the beginning of the flood gates for that transition, and I believe that there is a world out there in the 2030-2050 time frame, where the annual market for new cars is closer to 25-50M than 100M (all EV, higher average fleet utilization by a lot, longer life cars, but still needing regular replacement).
     
  4. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    Bigger.

    People cannot stop procreating. World Population Clock: 7.5 Billion People (2016) - Worldometers

    Population growth just today will be over 200,000.
    Population growth this year to date is nearly 60 Million extra people.

    With China's new 2-baby allowance, teenagers in the growing middle class there will want a car.
    The world wants to live a life of middle-class just like the USA did in the years after 1950s. Resource usage will continue to go up even if renewables are installed at record rates.
     
  5. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    Doesn't make a difference to tesla. A larger share of a smaller market is a lot more cars sold. It was like trying to decide on investment in Apple versus Microsoft. Apple with less than 5% market share in October market could only go up even with a decrease in total pic market
     
  6. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    The growth trend on population says the world will reach steady state on population at a total of around 11B people in around 2100. The obvious driver of a growing population, more babies, has already reached global steady state, with the number of children aged 1-15 steady at around 2B for decades.

    The continuing growth in populations is due to better health care, leading to more and more people in higher aged brackets.


    The two obvious events / factors I can think of that would materially change the global trend to a world population of 11B people are:
    - a change on the health care front, that makes dramatically longer life spans reasonably accessible. Like people are routinely living to 100 or 120 kind of change (your decision about the likelihood). (= even higher total population)
    - global scale catastrophe leading to massive species die-off. (= lower total population)


    Back to the context of annual auto industry units, that's adding 3.5B people to the 7.5B we have - not quite 50%. I see the global trends towards living a middle class lifestyle, including owning a car (even 1 car for the family instead of 2+), being an insanely popular and attractive accomplishment for families. Even if it's only being utilized 4% of the time. I believe this is the dominant trend that will continue driving global volumes higher, with the counter trend of Uber / ride-sharing / autonomous vehicles, at least for the next 10-20 years, providing something of a counterweight to the dominant trend.

    The day we look around ourselves on the roads, and any vehicle being manually piloted by a human is the exception than the rule, is the day when this has flipped on its head. We're a LONG ways away from that (by which I mean, at least 10-20 years).

    On the plus side, at least for me, that's a time scale that I expect to witness myself. And I think that's pretty darn cool.
     
  7. 987S4

    987S4 Member

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    When autonomous cars become commonplace (don't think it will happen by 2030) the industry will start shrinking.

    Private cars will becoming moving offices/living rooms. Speed, handling, safety will become normalized. People will not only make fewer car purchases, they'll upgrade the interior of the car before replacing the entire car.
     
  8. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    People will still want to use the cars at roughly the same time.

    Not a lot of demand for ride sharing services Sunday through Thursday between 11 PM and 5 AM for example.

    I doubt the price for ride sharing for someone that commutes 5 days per week plus takes 2 trips on the weekend will be cheaper than buying an autonomous electric car and keeping it for 15 years. After a few iterations BEVs will last MUCH longer and require MUCH less maintenance, will park and charge themselves. Removing much of the hassle of car ownership. Plus you can't just leave your stuff in the car.

    When autonomous vehicles are allowed to drive without a human driver it will no longer require car owners to have a drivers license, eliminating the contention about how young people have lower acquisition rates of vehicle drivers license.

    Analyst who compare ride sharing price vs leasing a near luxury car for 36 months and then reupping have it all wrong.
     
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  9. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    Bigger. Humans like independence. Plain and simple. Not good for us.
     
  10. Xenoilphobe

    Xenoilphobe Active Member

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  11. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Bigger.

    As people get more money and enter the "middle class" one of their first aspirations is to get a car. Witness the explosion of cars in China. We haven't achieved that density of wealth yet in India (1 billion people), or in much of Africa.

    Hopefully these and other regions will achieve greater economic gains by 2030 to allow a larger proportion of their population to be "middle class". They will want to buy cars at that time.

    The goal will be to provide sustainable cars, and hopefully desirable EVs like Tesla will be the norm. We have already seen what an explosion of prosperity coupled with ICE vehicles have done in China.
     
  12. N5329K

    N5329K Member

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    Flat or lower in NA and Europe. Bigger in China and India; two countries with very strong incentives to build, buy and operate zero-emissions cars.
    Robin
     
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  13. winfield100

    winfield100 Member

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    [QUOTE="so, will the global car market be bigger or smaller in 2030 vs 2020 and why?[/QUOTE]

    smaller, at least in the US.
    data points, 3.

    I and another boomer family (birthdates late 1940's early 1950's)
    4 children, millenials. 1, age 28, abandoned a paid off minicooper to use uber and subway, 1 uses uber and prius, lots of uber,
    other boomer family, one millenial age 25 uber exclusively, no drivers license, 1 rarely drives, (all children age 24-28)

    3rd family, both uber and drivers. (younger)
    the trend is downward in my opinion

    i somewhat agree with RMI (Rocky mountain Institute that "Peak Car" will be in about another 5 years depending on rate of autonomous vehicle uptake

    https://rmi.org/Content/Files/CWRRMI_POVdefection_FullReport_L12.pdf
     
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  14. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    What he or she said. Smaller in the developed countries, bigger in the underdeveloped countries.
     

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