last year global vehicle sales were roughly 85 million, and they are widely projected to be roughly 100 million in 2020. where will they be in 2030? outside of short-term shocks like the 2008 financial crisis, the trend has been upward for at least as far back as I could readily find data, 1950 onwards https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Motor_Vehicle_Prod_volume_RITA_T1-23.svg/350px-Motor_Vehicle_Prod_volume_RITA_T1-23.svg.png this long standing upward trend may reverse in the next ten to fifteen years. how likely is a reversal? how dramatic might it be? could the total pie shrink so quickly to impact Tesla's progression from it's goal of ~0.1% of the pie this year and 1% of the pie in 2020, to x% of the pie in 2030? of course, the driver of this potential reversal is the coming of the autonomous car. where and when will autonomous cars come into usage? will car ownership fall off sharply only in urban areas? how will it impact a typical family in the suburbs? what are the counter trends, and where will things net out? how much will the wealth gap (and in some cases, roadway quality gap) close for billions of people outside of the bulk of the current vehicle market? the case for a rapid decrease in car ownership often refers to the fact that today vehicles are only in use 4% of the time on average. fleets of autonomous vehicles would dramatically increase that usage percentage. however, to what extent would that increase usage increase the wear and tear on the vehicles and therefore shorten their years of use, and increase demand for new vehicles (a separate but related question is how much more usage will EVs turn out to have over ICE, and what the breakdown of EV/ICE ratio will look like over time). how much will car ownership be an aspirational choice in the traditional and emerging markets for vehicles? how much is car ownership based on pleasure vs. efficiently getting from point A to point B among us collectively? so, will the global car market be bigger or smaller in 2030 vs 2020 and why?