Will the value of used M3's increase once the rebate is half and then gone?

[TeeEmCee]

It will have an impact but it will be slight. Any difference is dwarfed by regular old depreciation.

That's not a good comparison. If a new car is relatively more expensive than a used car will also have an upward pressure on value.

You're assuming 100% price elasticity for those new cars, which is wrong.

There's only a finite number of people who would spend a non-trivial pile of money on what is essentially a likable yet pretty crummy car, only because it's electric. The introduction of the mid-range model should indicate that, at least in the US, the market is reaching saturation for the current price point.

 

[Nocturnal]

You're assuming 100% price elasticity for those new cars, which is wrong.

There's only a finite number of people who would spend a non-trivial pile of money on what is essentially a likable yet pretty crummy car, only because it's electric. The introduction of the mid-range model should indicate that, at least in the US, the market is reaching saturation for the current price point.

No I'm not. I said it would have an upwards pressure, not stating how much it would be. And if we are at a max sales level for premium 3s, then I suggest that further increases the relative value of used 3s compared to new 3s.

 

[TeeEmCee]

No I'm not. I said it would have an upwards pressure, not stating how much it would be. And if we are at a max sales level for premium 3s, then I suggest that further increases the relative value of used 3s compared to new 3s.

I'm going to hazard a guess and say come next year, Tesla vehicles will have to get some combination of price cut and content increase to maintain the current US sales volume. Furthermore, when actual competition arrives, the price and content will have to be further adjusted to match the new reality (I drove the i-Pace, that one is not that much of a threat at this point, i.m.o.).

... all this while ignoring the upcoming recession. When that one hits, all bets are off.

 

[tylerdurden]

I saw a 2018 P3D for sale in Red and one in black they are going for around $66k on the used market and available RIGHT now , on the only used Tesla site, you can google them and look. The other thing to consider is customers will just buy the MR since the LR is RWD is not available anymore. Its only a 40 mile range difference and less cost + the fed $3750 and whatever state incentives they have like for example here in NYC its $2k.

 

[ℬête Noire]

...on what is essentially a likable yet pretty crummy car....

 

[Lifeinabox]

One factor that might decrease depreciation rate is if oil prices and hence gasoline prices go way up. If that happens and it happens for a significantly long time period people will start to really want more efficient vehicles and there aren't many that are more efficient than a M3. I remember the oil price peak during the recent recession and people were definitely starting to question the efficiency of their vehicle, driving habits, etc.

I think if you happened to purchase in a state with a good rebate that that amount might help as not all states have that rebate so sales prices don't always account for that like the federal rebate.

If gas prices go way up, what you "gain" from reduced depreciation will be more than made up for the cost of pretty much everything else in your life.

 

[DdotRoq]

Tesla's own calculations, when they had the resale value guarantee, was 50% of the base price ($35k for the 3) and 43% of the options (LR, Premium, EAP, etc) after only 3 years.
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/rvg/RVG_Agreement_R20160318_en_US.pdf

I think this is about 10% worse than other 36 month car leases like the C-Class or 3 series, but those are usually subsidized by the manufacturer to get low monthly payments. When you factor in the tax incentives, it becomes competitive. The huge majority of buyers are sensitive to monthly payment, so loss of the tax incentive might be a big factor for sales.

That form looks so familiar. How would you know if your vehicle had that form included? Honestly, I don't remember.

 

[HeatproofGenie]

If gas prices go way up, what you "gain" from reduced depreciation will be more than made up for the cost of pretty much everything else in your life.

And?

It's the same for everyone then. What's the point?

 

[eloder]

Also the lower rebates may force Tesla to lower prices and increase content on new sales to keep any volume of sales. Even now there appears to zero wait time for many configurations even with the rebate about to drop in half Dec 31st. Most of the original reservation holders were looking at the 35K model less all the rebates (In many states) to be about $25K net.

Demand is saturated given current prices and offerings, but the US is only half of Tesla's market. And most other countries don't have the tax incentives to worry about affecting demand.

Give this huge batch of cars in the past few months some time to generate word of mouth while international gets a major focus, then combine this with the short range version, and I imagine they'll get plenty of buyers.