With China producing for Asia, (Germany producing for EU), is 100% of US production going to NA?

[anon125110]

With China producing for Asian market, (and later this year Germany producing for EU), is 100% of US production going to North American market? In other words NA will see sub 1 week delivery times as they will no longer get 1/3 of quarterly production?

Around here, during the "NA" delivery time of each quarter delivery times are typically 2 to 5 days. Is it going to become that all the time? So Tesla may actually be able to make more cars than they can sell? Which would mean potential price reduction to keep the numbers up?

 

[SMAlset]

I thought someone on here posted a while ago that the Chinese produced cars stay in China. It’s a huge potential market and I can see that could have been one of the conditions for the factory and financing—fulfilling all local orders. China is huge on pursuing EV adoption, unlike our country. Thankfully some States here have taken up the cause. While taking China out of the delivery picture (except for parts still needed), Tesla has expanded to other countries so I’m not sure the picture for deliveries here will get any better until GF4 goes into heavy production. Just my thought.

 

[Evergreeen]

China demand will soak up gf3 production for the near future. Germany gigafactory will take longer and unlikely to produce large volumes this year. Fremont will still be producing for Europe and non China for a while.

 

[OCR1]

Tesla sells cars all over the world, not just North America, China and Europe. But yes the Chinese market will be handled by the Shanghai factory. The rest of the world still relies on Fremont.

The Canadians usually have to wait the longest.

 

[jonquiljo]

Tesla sells cars all over the world, not just North America, China and Europe. But yes the Chinese market will be handled by the Shanghai factory. The rest of the world still relies on Fremont.

The Canadians usually have to wait the longest.

Right now - it is as you said, Fremont produces for everyone. Eventually as production ramps up, Shanghai will produce for China only. I read somewhere that had something to do with Tesla's "deal" with the Chinese government. So Shanghai is a big bet on China because I'm pretty sure cars can't be sent elsewhere.

Germany GF, when built, will produce for the EU, UK, etc. It may produce for elsewhere. It depends on demand, but I suspect that the EU is a big place with a major thirst for EVs.

To address the OP - Tesla will never make more cars than they can sell as they would be insane to do so. Profit is important in a growing company. Tesla has lots of debt to pay off and they are not going to give anyone big breaks. Supply vs. demand - and supply can be regulated so that demand is kept high.

 

[FielderJones]

To address the OP - Tesla will never make more cars than they can sell as they would be insane to do so. Profit is important in a growing company. Tesla has lots of debt to pay off and they are not going to give anyone big breaks. Supply vs. demand - and supply can be regulated so that demand is kept high.

The preliminary Q4 numbers reported contradict this. Sales were 112k vehicles, production was 105k vehicles, therefore Q1-Q3 production had 7k of inventory that did not sell by the end of Q3.

 

[SMAlset]

Are you factoring in cars “in transit” that can’t count as delivered because they haven’t been yet?

 

[LevelHeaded]

Where is the evidence that shows China-produced cars can’t be distributed elsewhere?

I thought the deal was that cars Tesla builds in China are eligible for more favorable pricing if sold in China. AKA there’s incentive to build locally for the Chinese market. But I’m not aware of restrictions on distributing excess vehicles elsewhere?

 

[hmmwv]

GF3 will not relieve Fremont and GF1's workload immediately, currently GF3 cars only have roughly 30% domestic content, the rest are still shipped directly from the US. By the end of this year domestic content will rise to roughly 80%, including the complete battery pack. That's when we can see a jump in available cars for the NA market. I got the figures from a Chinese video of vlogger talking to Tesla during the first 15 vehicle delivery.

 

[boriszima]

GF3 will not relieve Fremont and GF1's workload immediately, currently GF3 cars only have roughly 30% domestic content, the rest are still shipped directly from the US. By the end of this year domestic content will rise to roughly 80%, including the complete battery pack. That's when we can see a jump in available cars for the NA market. I got the figures from a Chinese video of vlogger talking to Tesla during the first 15 vehicle delivery.

that would be good timing for Tesla to start producing Model Y.

How many GF is Tesla’s goal? They don’t want to over built but rather have continuous strong demand.

 

[Knightshade]

With China producing for Asian market

For the china region only, not all of Asia.

Shanghai Giga production of Model 3/Y will serve greater China region

, (and later this year Germany producing for EU)

You mean middle of next year....

Tesla's Europe Gigafactory to begin production of Model Y and Model 3 in 2021

Following the completion of GF4’s first construction phase, 150,000 Model Y and Model 3 vehicles are expected to be produced starting in July 2021.

And of course Y production starts in California THIS year, summer latest though some have suggested it might be as soon as end of Q1.

So given demand on the Y is expected to be even higher than the 3 I wouldn't expect Tesla to have supply exceed demand anytime soon.

 

[house9]

Germany gigafactory will take longer and unlikely to produce large volumes this year.

I don’t think there will be any cars produced in Germany for 2020, I would be surprised if the factory construction is complete by the end of the year, but you never know. GF3 construction was an anomaly, I would expect more bureaucracy/permits/worker safety concerns/etc... when building in other countries.

 

[Evergreeen]

I don’t think there will be any cars produced in Germany for 2020, I would be surprised if the factory construction is complete by the end of the year, but you never know. GF3 construction was an anomaly, I would expect more bureaucracy/permits/worker safety concerns/etc... when building in other countries.

They announced timeline of July 2021 for Berlin production start

 

[Chuq]

China isn't producing "for Asia" so your premise is wrong.

Not only is it only producing for China, it's also producing only one specific version of the Model 3 (I think it's the SR+). So Model S, X, and other editions of the Model 3 will still be from North America.

Also as others have said, they're not producing for Japan, South Korea, Australia or New Zealand. Also not Jordan or the UAE although these might be supplied by Europe.