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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I'm estimating labor pool as total of GF and Fremont. My basis is Elon's letter from mid April that they want to hire 400/wk for several weeks at both Fremont and GF. My interpretation is that this will be a 3rd shift, somewhere around 2000-2500 people. I doubled that and estimated that the existing labor pool at the time is ~4000-5000 people including both sites working on M3 related production.
Okay, I did some math and I tend to agree something like 50 hours per car seems reasonable for battery pack, drive unit and car production. So yeah, I don't know where the rest of the money is going, by their estimation. But Musk seemed to think they were in the ballpark.
 
Damnit guys, look at this *sugar*. We need Tesla to hurry up and build the damn Gigafactory and get battery storage to the masses.....along with cars and solar panels. Bah! Who on here is or knows of a philanthropist that hasn't given to Tesla yet!?! :)

What happened to capitalism and letting the market do it's job? What happened to not picking "winners and loser"? What happened to the Republican party? Such a shame. Coal is gone big boy, suck it up.

BREAKING: Trump orders Perry to stop coal, nuclear retirements
He can't. This is going to be interesting, because it's going to be smacked down in court in about 20 seconds. Perry might even literally refuse to do it. The utility companies certainly won't operate money-losing plants just because the federal government wants them to.

(Lawyers have already reviewed every law Trump could use to do this and concluded that he has no legal legs to stand on. Probably the only legal move he could make would be to outright purchase the plants from the utilities and make the DoD buy the power.)
 
Okay, I did some math and I tend to agree something like 50 hours per car seems reasonable for battery pack, drive unit and car production. So yeah, I don't know where the rest of the money is going, by their estimation. But Musk seemed to think they were in the ballpark.

I did research and found that the average for assembling a car was nearer 35 hours: this is from 2008:

Motor Trend:

When Harbour adds up all the man-hours it takes to build a car or truck, including stamping, assembly, engine and transmission manufacture, Hyundai was seventh of seven majors, at 35.1 hours per vehicle in North America. Ford Motor Company was sixth, at 33.88 hours, a 3.7-percent improvement over last year, Nissan was fifth, at an estimated 32.96 hours, or 8.8 percent more time than the previous year, and GM was fourth, at 32.29 hours, a 0.2-percent improvement. Honda was third, at 31.33 hours, a 2.3-percent improvement.

This is ten years ago but I would think 40 hours was reasonable for Tesla currently - with an expectation that it can be lowered to 30 hours a vehicle..on the Model 3 at 5-6000 a week.
 
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And not just any company. A HOMEGROWN company! A company employing over 30,000 Americans using predominantly American components and led by an immigrant who is the real world Tony Stark/John Galt! A company spearheading and accelerating the transition to clean, abundant energy and pollution-free transportation for all. How is this not the greatest business story of the 21st Century? Oh yeah, I forgot. Oil & gas giants, ICE manufacturers, vehicle dealerships and legacy energy companies do NOT want it to succeed. And sadly, the Fifth Estate has abdicated its ethical responsibility and is directly complicit in the effort to sabotage Tesla. In the process, the press is giving the world's oldest profession a bad name!

They also get so many people like you & the rest of this forum, owners, shareholders, EVangelist, investors, FUDbusters... At least this cheers me up :rolleyes:
 
I did research and found that the average for assembling a car was nearer 35 hours: this is from 2008:

Motor Trend:

When Harbour adds up all the man-hours it takes to build a car or truck, including stamping, assembly, engine and transmission manufacture, Hyundai was seventh of seven majors, at 35.1 hours per vehicle in North America. Ford Motor Company was sixth, at 33.88 hours, a 3.7-percent improvement over last year, Nissan was fifth, at an estimated 32.96 hours, or 8.8 percent more time than the previous year, and GM was fourth, at 32.29 hours, a 0.2-percent improvement. Honda was third, at 31.33 hours, a 2.3-percent improvement.

This is ten years ago but I would think 40 hours was reasonable for Tesla currently - with an expectation that it can be lowered to 30 hours a vehicle..on the Model 3 at 5-6000 a week.

On the Q1 call, didn't they say the 3 line has ~1/4 the stations of typical manufacturers (~50 total)?
500/day worst case is 2.88 minutes per step. If Fremont is half the labor, that's 20 hours per car or 417 people-steps. If the 50 steps is true, that would require 8 people per step. Doors are a separate operation, so that parallelism would boost head count. Still, I think those using conventional assembly as the reference are in for a shock.(engine build vs robotic motor assembly, fixed gearing vs full transmission...)

I dig the station when two robots install the seats simultaneously. The full dash installer is also cool.
 
I have always thought that Yahoo News is pay-for-placement. Your Yahoo Finance phone app is similar. I think that the Yahoo search engine was at one time pay-for-placement, so this is just an extension of that.

Google News is different. I have always thought Google News is being gamed by the news organizations, who in turn are being paid (or their editors or journalists).

Bloomberg appears to be a hybrid. Bloomberg Radio is sometimes pay-for-coverage. Bloomberg on the web or terminal is a straight news organization that is looking for the click and is not above sensationalist headlines.

It's important to recognize that there is tangible value in placement and coverage, as we have seen sometimes with TSLA short-term manipulation. If neither the Yahoo/Google news aggregator nor the news organization are paid, then it stands to reason that some of the editors and journalists are capturing or trying to capture that value.

When I search "Tesla" on Google, top three news with large pictures are all negative: paint fire (CNBC); still may not be profitable (Quartz); growing concern over Tesla's finances (BusinessInsider)......

Search "Tesla" on Yahoo, again, top three news with pictures are all negative.

We have tried to predict how they will twist the $28k cost as a negative. They did a good job twisting it. Seems to me they not only pay to create these negative "news", they also pay Google and Yahoo to display them as "top news".

Tesla is the only public company that I know which has been working so hard to help humanity. Look what they get in return, it's sad.
 
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On the Q1 call, didn't they say the 3 line has ~1/4 the stations of typical manufacturers (~50 total)?
500/day worst case is 2.88 minutes per step. If Fremont is half the labor, that's 20 hours per car or 417 people-steps. If the 50 steps is true, that would require 8 people per step. Doors are a separate operation, so that parallelism would boost head count. Still, I think those using conventional assembly as the reference are in for a shock.(engine build vs robotic motor assembly, fixed gearing vs full transmission...)

I dig the station when two robots install the seats simultaneously. The full dash installer is also cool.
I thought the number of 50 steps was limited to the general assembly, and doesn't include the body line, paint, people moving parts and finished cars, QA, etc.
 
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Weekend O.T.

Eco friendly sneakers.

Collaboration between Parley for the Oceans and Adidas.

They use recycled plastic for the uppers equivalent to ~11 500 mL water bottles.

The plastic comes from Ocean and Beach cleanup. And "from coastal communities" before they reach the ocean. So I take it is mostly the latter.



Review of Parley Ultra Boost



Parley Adidas sneakers range in price from $60 to $250. That is about $20 more than a conventional equivalent pair.

I picked up a pair of these a few weeks ago for $200.

file.jpg


These are the most comptable shoes I own. The upper material is very breathable and stretchy. I usually buy old school leather sneakers in the $100-$150 price range. So the new school textile upper and "styrofoam" looking midsole gets some getting used to but can't beat the combo of eco friendly AND very comfortable.
 
And not just any company. A HOMEGROWN company! A company employing over 30,000 Americans using predominantly American components and led by an immigrant who is the real world Tony Stark/John Galt! A company spearheading and accelerating the transition to clean, abundant energy and pollution-free transportation for all. How is this not the greatest business story of the 21st Century? Oh yeah, I forgot. Oil & gas giants, ICE manufacturers, vehicle dealerships and legacy energy companies do NOT want it to succeed. And sadly, the Fifth Estate has abdicated its ethical responsibility and is directly complicit in the effort to sabotage Tesla. In the process, the press is giving the world's oldest profession a bad name!
Who is John Galt?

(Don't bother replying or explaining... it's a joke.)
 
Northern European Study:

Location: Danmark, Finaland, Norway, Sweden,Island

Sample: 82 visits at Auto Dealers, Duration: 10 minutes interviews

Result: 0% likelihood that a consumer buys an EV visiting an Auto Dealer due to no competence, no interest to sell an EV, not motivated sales reps. Many did admit to have EVs after the consumer asked a couple of times the same question. Easy and best sale is still an ICE (for the Dealer!).

Autohändler meiden Elektroauto-Verkäufe (Studie) - ecomento.de
 
I thought the number of 50 steps was limited to the general assembly, and doesn't include the body line, paint, people moving parts and finished cars, QA, etc.

I think you are correct. On the other hand, paint is automated, part movement is an aggregated action, and metal placement for welding is likely highly automated.

Has anyone seen people driving the 3's into the holding lot? Would be cool if they are using super summon.
 
Right, but there are a lot of people who will be fooled. I'd bet everyone on this forum has run into people completely misinformed about Tesla, i.e. "fooled". As negative headlines keep increasing a larger number of people will be misled. Tesla is in a race to engineer a fix for human stupidity before maximum negativity takes hold.

And as I said, I’m not worried about those *fools* because there are enough non-fools to continue us forward. Some of the *fools* will become non-fools over time as the product proves their perception wrong.

You’re of the opinion the fools will be too great in number. We’ll just have to wait and see.
 
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You got 2 data points saying its no issue and a lot of data points saying it is a huge issue.

No, I don’t. I can go on if you need me too. I have plenty of no issue data points but I don’t want to bore people and this isn’t a contest. But that particular one, where there is virtually no Tesla presence to correct misinformation, is a pretty powerful one especially coming from a big ICE supporter deep in the heart of Republican fracking is almost as good as my rifle in my pickup and the open can of beer in my lap. Which begs the intelligence question of those who are fooled.

Negativity always has a greater impact on one’s perception than positive. You read a few bad reviews from a restaurant and people are likely to be put off even if there are twice as many good reviews.

What I’ve learned in life is that generally the more bluster being tossed about the less likely the bluster is real, and the more likely it’s just hot air. Eventually hot air dissipates.
 
I think you are correct. On the other hand, paint is automated, part movement is an aggregated action, and metal placement for welding is likely highly automated.

Has anyone seen people driving the 3's into the holding lot? Would be cool if they are using super summon.
I heard rumors that they are recruiting interns to drive the cars to the holding lot, can't remember where, maybe one of the threads in the M3 subforum.
 
They also get so many people like you & the rest of this forum, owners, shareholders, EVangelist, investors, FUDbusters... At least this cheers me up :rolleyes:
If you like that, get this:
We’re.
Just.
Getting...
STARTED!!
Imagine that May 2018, the biggest ramp of FUD in recent memory, but also when Elon Musk said, “Braking not meeting expectations? HOLD MY BEER,”
...will be what is remembered as a perceptible Tipping Point in this story company’s story. There’s a good case to be made that it will be.

Breathe *that* in for a few seconds. Eh?

Feel that?

...d’ya feel it???​
 
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