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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Hate to double post across threads, but I think this belongs here as well. Next big SP catalyst IMHO is upgrade to investment grade with lots of institutional buying. Can you imagine a 50+% increase in institutional ownership of TSLA shares! Can happen anytime = short squeeze when it does. Carefully with CC close to the sun.
jw934 said:
Today, Gary Black updated % institution holding of Tech stocks:
% shares held by instit’ns:
GOOG 85%
META 79%
MSFT 75%
AMZN 70%
AAPL 62%
TSLA 46% <<
Pointing to possible huge institution share purchases once Tesla debts become investment grade.
jw934 said:
Today, Gary Black updated % institution holding of Tech stocks:
% shares held by instit’ns:
GOOG 85%
META 79%
MSFT 75%
AMZN 70%
AAPL 62%
TSLA 46% <<
Pointing to possible huge institution share purchases once Tesla debts become investment grade.
Is it just me or does volume need to increase a lot to achieve "anemic"?
my convoluted charting says today's highest volume is around 904-906 (i dunno what is the significance of that)
edit: and 50% fib is EXACTLY 901.00
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Wanted some more cash on hand after spending a bunch this past 2 weeks, so.....
STO 12/16 BPS -$900 / +$600 for $92 each
Only $6 a week till then but still a fun spread to open!
STO 12/16 BPS -$900 / +$600 for $92 each
Only $6 a week till then but still a fun spread to open!
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
When do you anticipate this happening?
Otherwise, since interest rates aren't dropping anytime this year, I would think selling CCs would be the most optimal strategy until we see a macro reversal.
On my RRSP/TFSA (no-tax) accounts I sold shares and bought DITM LEAPs (roughly 2:1 ratio) back when we were hanging out around/under 700 in May / June.
Those have made some profit, but I was hoping to switch back to shares when we get close to ATH again.
Sure, I can wait more, but in the meantime I cannot sell CCs as I have no shares (those accounts do not allow short position without coverage, no margin).
What is your not-advice: is it better to wait hoping Q3/Q4 results or investment grade upgrade or whatever other catalyst will push us higher in the next half year or so, or just take whatever profit is on the table, convert back to shares and start selling CCs weekly ?
Shares would also appreciate from higher SP, but the LEAPs would bring about twice the gain, because of 2:1 ratio of the position, but I am missing out on the CC income.
Those have made some profit, but I was hoping to switch back to shares when we get close to ATH again.
Sure, I can wait more, but in the meantime I cannot sell CCs as I have no shares (those accounts do not allow short position without coverage, no margin).
What is your not-advice: is it better to wait hoping Q3/Q4 results or investment grade upgrade or whatever other catalyst will push us higher in the next half year or so, or just take whatever profit is on the table, convert back to shares and start selling CCs weekly ?
Shares would also appreciate from higher SP, but the LEAPs would bring about twice the gain, because of 2:1 ratio of the position, but I am missing out on the CC income.
Can you not sell the calls against the LEAPS as a diagonal spread?
Was thinking the same thing. Closed half my -855p and -950c for this week just to open up margin, and rolled the rest for a credit into next week (going further OTM). Whether the SP rises or falls on friday, I'll at least have available margin to sell something. And if it ends up ending with a whimper, at least I'll have next week's options to earn theta on as well.
When all the crooks and their friends have figured out the best way to profit from it
Ended up with a 8/26 +810/-840 -955/+985 IC , put together yesterday and today. The morning dip yesterday would have been optimal for the puts and todays spike for the calls... note to self for next time. For now, these have a good chance of expiring but can be rolled/closed to favor whatever direction the price moves.
My simple estimation concludes the same situation: TSLA is substantially under appreciated by institutions.
Using fintel.io data, I made the following table, showing the top 11 largest companies by market cap.
Compared with AAPL, TSLA is 0.339 of its market cap, but the institution owned value is only 0.278 of AAPL, indicating substantially less appreciated by institutions than by retail investors (like us) and founders (like Musk). The blue column indicates TSLA is actually the most underappreciated stock by these funds. Of course, the number of ETFs and mutuals suggest the same.
Assuming funds start to compensate this by buying shares after the credit upgrade, and assuming they accumulate 0.339 institution ownership, the same as they own AAPL. It means they need to purchase $113 billion dollars of TSLA, or 122 million shares, which is 12% of current market cap. Recall that the buying was about 108 million share when TSLA was included to S&P 500.
Apple started to pay quarterly dividends and repurchase its shares in March 2012. Since then and through the summer of 2021, Apple has spent over $467 billion on buybacks, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. During this nine-years, Apple stock raised from ~$20 to $140.
So what will happen if institutions pour hundreds of billions to buy TSLA and Tesla itself started to buyback stocks? A seven-fold increase of TSLA share price?
Of course, Apple's SP raise is also related to its stunning business, with EPS (TTM) increasing from $1.5 to $5.1. Tesla surely has the same potential? I think Tesla has the chance to increase EPS at a much faster and bigger pace!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
It's one thing for shares to be missing tomorrow, what about if options are a mess at the open? I guess there's nothing much that can be done and we just wait til the various brokers work it out?
I've got some spreads I'll want to roll tomorrow. I hope Fidelity has this sorted at the open.
I've got some spreads I'll want to roll tomorrow. I hope Fidelity has this sorted at the open.
Yes, tomorrow is “Roll Thursday“. What happens if those nasty hedgies and MMs (and us on this thread) can’t roll our sold positions into next week?
Edit: Do the MMs really have THAT much power? MaxPain was $880 this morning. Calls dominate at $885, puts at $880. Tonight’s close was $891.29. Crazy that I will need to roll the puts instead of the calls at 900 (300 post split) on Friday.
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Hey folks, who else is using Wingman tracker?
I'm wondering how do I update the positions there after the split.. hope I don't have to do it manually. I asked them about this but no answer so far.
Gotta say, looks like TSLA is real cheap today, you can get 10 shares for under 3k!
Edit: got an answer. Looks like I will have to do this manually, it means importing manually the trades again with the new prices and deleting old positions. Well this isn't so much fun..
I'm wondering how do I update the positions there after the split.. hope I don't have to do it manually. I asked them about this but no answer so far.
Gotta say, looks like TSLA is real cheap today, you can get 10 shares for under 3k!
Edit: got an answer. Looks like I will have to do this manually, it means importing manually the trades again with the new prices and deleting old positions. Well this isn't so much fun..
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