Is a Chinese registration of a Model S inclusive of only new-units or is it a DMV type of registration of "any" car inclusive of LHD CPOs coming into the country? I assume one must register a used car as well. CPOs from traded-in USA-based leases starting in 2013 could possibly be sold at perhaps a higher price in China than in the USA due to the larger portion of the market being in the USA while China can be used as a secondary market with a possible fast-growing appetite for CPOs at a lower price than new. It can be a little skewing - such as Norway where a registration posted is not always a sale.
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That phenomenon is one of my caveats on China numbers. Not too long ago for an ICE manufacturer I then dealt with more than 50% of purported new sales were used and not-formally-imported models. On the face of it, quite a few China registrations could have come from such sources. I do not purport to know, but I do tend to discount China registration data by 30-50% because of that and other potential discrepancies.
jbc: Any chance at all that a "sale" in China can be counted as "New" even if it is an imported CPO? I do wonder where all the turned-in 2013-3yr. lease cars have gone - 2016 should have been a year of thousands of incoming off-lease models showing up for re-sale. When summing up the "removed" plus the "visible" CPOs for the USA on ev-cpo.com - that grand total is only 1000. You'd think more than 1000 Leases would have been returned in 2016 in the USA alone. Plus thousands of trade-ins for the new fascia and the new features like Ludicrous and P100D. They do drive LHD cars in mainland China.
Just a supposition - I have thought that importing LHD CPOs into lands like Norway and China would be a great thing to do for Tesla as there is no import taxation into Norway for even Used EVs right now and re-selling there could be smarter than trying to do so in the USA where many people like "brand spankin' new" cars. The new car smell and "nobody has been in my car before" is usually important here.
Just a supposition - I have thought that importing LHD CPOs into lands like Norway and China would be a great thing to do for Tesla as there is no import taxation into Norway for even Used EVs right now and re-selling there could be smarter than trying to do so in the USA where many people like "brand spankin' new" cars. The new car smell and "nobody has been in my car before" is usually important here.
I would like to report my observation of the google spreadsheet.
Since Dec 12, there were virtually very few entries (~10) in the google spreadsheet for the MS 16-Q4. However, in the first two weeks of Dec, there were about 4~5 entries per day. In the meantime, 17-Q1 spreadsheet was also barely moving since mid-Dec.
The most plausible explanation to me is that they hit (or at least they know they will hit) the lower end of their guidance at the end of the second week of Dec. Thus, they started to idle delivery for the rest of the month. If they were unable to meet the guidance, it would be very hard for me to imagine they stopped trying three weeks before the deadline.
My guess is 14,000 MS and 11,000 MX deliveries.
Since Dec 12, there were virtually very few entries (~10) in the google spreadsheet for the MS 16-Q4. However, in the first two weeks of Dec, there were about 4~5 entries per day. In the meantime, 17-Q1 spreadsheet was also barely moving since mid-Dec.
The most plausible explanation to me is that they hit (or at least they know they will hit) the lower end of their guidance at the end of the second week of Dec. Thus, they started to idle delivery for the rest of the month. If they were unable to meet the guidance, it would be very hard for me to imagine they stopped trying three weeks before the deadline.
My guess is 14,000 MS and 11,000 MX deliveries.
It seems there is some kind of delay to RHD vehicles in Tilburg. Also appears RHD cars to Japan experienced some kind of delays.
Here is a link to the model X thread where this is indicated. Most of it is in the last two pages RHD VIN assignment and delivery
Here is a link to the model X thread where this is indicated. Most of it is in the last two pages RHD VIN assignment and delivery
ev-sales.blogspot's China numbers appear to be reasonably accurate (albeit a bit on the low side) when they can be compared to official numbers released by Tesla. For example, for Q3 2015 (the last quarter I could find official Tesla China numbers), ev-sales.blogspot estimated 1278 deliveries -- not far from Tesla's official report of 1345. Tesla Motors Posts Strongest Quarterly Sales This Year in China.
Also, the roughly 300% y/y increase from ev-sales.blogspot data was also reported a couple months ago by an analyst who predicted similar numbers (10,000 Tesla deliveries in China in 2016; 322% y/y growth), and whose reports on Tesla in China have been accurate in the past. Tesla Motors: It’s Working?
So, when taken together with other information, I tend to think these numbers provide useful information. I don't know whether registrations in China lag actual sales/deliveries a bit as they do in some other countries -- if so the actual deliveries could be quite a bit higher given the rapid growth of Model S sales and recent introduction of Model X in China.
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dc_h
Active Member
FYI. Speigal predicts 18500 Q4 deliveries. Estimates for October/ November seem to exclude china. They guess 8000 global deliveries in oct/nov to get to 17-18.5 for quarter.
Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter
Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter
Plotted the spreadsheet data for Model S (from Model S Order & Delivery 2016).
Looks like on average, slope stayed pretty much constant from Q3. VIN assignment in Q3 (approx. 165,000-150,000=15,000) is pretty much in line with deliveries (Q3 letter: "Deliveries increased 114% from the third quarter of 2015, and was comprised of 16,047 Model S and 8,774 Model X vehicles."). So using that to predict Q4, I´d say 183,000-165,000=18,000 Model S.
What is strange though is while in Q3 production end and deliveries nicely followed assigment, for Q4 that´s not really the case. Could be a technical problem with the spreadsheet or my analysis, actual delivery problems, or an artifact from batching (likely that US customers are more likely to report and might be batched to end of Q even more then usually).
In mid-october the VIN assignment curve seems to a discontuity in its slope (from steeper to more flat), which coincides with the announcement of AutoPilot 2.0 hardware on Oct 16. Might be reading to much into the data though.
Still have to do this for the X, I´ll see when I find time.
Looks like on average, slope stayed pretty much constant from Q3. VIN assignment in Q3 (approx. 165,000-150,000=15,000) is pretty much in line with deliveries (Q3 letter: "Deliveries increased 114% from the third quarter of 2015, and was comprised of 16,047 Model S and 8,774 Model X vehicles."). So using that to predict Q4, I´d say 183,000-165,000=18,000 Model S.
What is strange though is while in Q3 production end and deliveries nicely followed assigment, for Q4 that´s not really the case. Could be a technical problem with the spreadsheet or my analysis, actual delivery problems, or an artifact from batching (likely that US customers are more likely to report and might be batched to end of Q even more then usually).
In mid-october the VIN assignment curve seems to a discontuity in its slope (from steeper to more flat), which coincides with the announcement of AutoPilot 2.0 hardware on Oct 16. Might be reading to much into the data though.
Still have to do this for the X, I´ll see when I find time.
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Wasn't that his prediction in Q3 as well (18.5k), along with plummeting gross margins, of course.
Gerardf
Active Member
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
Just want to ask the experts here, why does Tesla always make crazy rush at the end of each quarter to deliver car, and then take it super easy at the beginning of each quarter? why not just make a constant pace of steady increasing production/deliveries every single month, instead of mostly just the end of each quarter?
On China. All I can say is the head of Tesla China recently said Fremont was running over clock during 3 weeks around Thanksgiving to meet orders from China. And there were about 180 X90D owners waiting in line to take delivery in Beijing in a single day a few days ago.
C'mon, someone join me and the other two saps who voted for 29,001+. It's OK to be an optimist and a realist!
I like it, here's hoping that Tesla is pulling midnight madness delivery events all over the world on New Year's Eve in 2016.
Because once you've done it once, Wall St makes it hard to get off the roundabout. Tesla do some amount of batching because of the logistics of shipping and country homologation, but it would be surprising to me if this naturally coincided with quarter boundaries. But the first quarter where they don't do anything special will have less deliveries. Now, I think at some point, Elon will just have to say out loud that at some future quarter, they will go into steady state mode, and incorporate that into projections. The analysts will hit TSLA hard for ever saying something like that, because they're all about Q-on-Q numbers. So maybe Elon will never say that. Anyway, he seems to like the internal pressure generated too.
Actually Elon said a while (more than a year) ago that they wanted to get away from that, so I guess they are aware that it is not the most efficient operating mode. But I guess @ggr is right, unless they have a really easy time making their targets, taking time off at the beginning of a quarter to recover from the rush at the end of the previous forces them to do another rush and so on.
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