This is true (pending IRS guidance) for all China/LFP-equipped cars sold in the USA. It does not (again, subject to updated IRS rules) apply to leased cars, which will be able to capture the entire $7,500 IRA credit as a commercial vehicle (I defer to @mongo for the correct IRS interpretation).
Indeed, although I do not understand the upthread post of why a switch from Panasonic 2170 to Tesla 4680 is needed. Tesla is only getting a percentage of the IRA manufacturing credit from Panasonic, but the cells do meet requirements for vehicle credits (pending guidance, 10% increase in mineral and content requirements, and excluded entity treatment/ sourcing)
And, lo-and-behold, what did we see today? A $100/mth drop in the cost on a 36-mth term lease. That's a total of $3,600 which is SUSPICIOUSLY close to the $3,750 battery portion which China/LFP-cars may lose starting Jan 2nd, 2024 due to battery sourcing requirements of the IRA.
$3,600 is close to $3,750, but I don't follow the causality. Current leases are $7,500 credit eligible, so 2024 would see an effective increase on vehicle purchase pricing, making leases relatively cheaper. Lowering the lease payments increases that differential. Raising payments $100 or lowering sales price $3,750 maintains existing parity (for qualified purchasers).
Now, where does this money come from to finance the leases? I submit that Tesla raised over a billion USD in bonds last month from Wall-E and that is this leasing program that they are intending to fund.
Third party leases are also eligible, no change from current situation.
Now, I just wonder if the lease-backers will have some residual ownership of the returned cars? This is yet another way that Tesla could be planning to build it's own fleet of 3/Y cars for the Tesla Network (robotaxis). Note well that there cars will ALL be long-life LFP-battery equipped, which is the best choice for high annual-mileage fleet vehicles.
(Accountants, forgive me)
Ignoring destination fee: $7,500 credit + $4,500 down +$1,292 first, acquisition, order fees = $13,282 to Tesla/ 3rd party at inception on a $38,990 vehicle. Net is $25,700.
Monthly payments on the lease align with an 8 year 6% loan which gives a remaining principle of $17,500 after 3 years. (Likely not at all the way to calculate). However, Tesla as lessor would also pocket the interest of nearly $4k putting the vehicle remaining cost at $13,500 (yes, ignoring a lot of things). Backing out original profit of 20% (roughly) or $8,880 yields remaining 'cost' to Tesla of $4,700 a car.
