Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Indeed, maybe Q2 and S&P is a bit baked in after the last couple of weeks, but the 150k deliveries in Q3 will totally flabbergast the market and the $1b profit (number straight from my sphincter, but maybe, eh?) will have them soiling their breeches.

Agree completely. One thing I'll add is Battery Day revelations may offer another "boom" for TSLA prior to Q3 numbers.

It's also possible the market could awaken to how big Q3 will be prior to Sep 22.

 

[kyzhk]

anyone dare to sell $3500 strike covered call expiring 7/24?

 

[oldTAVguy]

This just crossed the wire: (it is so short there is nothing to excerpt from it)

"No coronavirus risk to Tesla's Elon Musk after meeting with Oklahoma governor -spokesman
REUTERS 10:48 AM ET 7/15/2020

Symbol Last Price Change
TSLA 1499.2 -17.6 (-1.16%)
QUOTES AS OF 01:55:54 PM ET 07/15/2020
July 15 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc(TSLA) Chief Executive Elon Musk and other Tesla employees are not at risk of having contracted the novel coronavirus after a July 3 meeting with Oklahoma's governor, who said on Wednesday he had tested positive for the virus, a spokesman for the governor said.

"There is no risk to any Tesla employees from the July 3 visit," Charlie Hannema, a spokesman for Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt said in a statement, adding an additional meeting with Tesla executives on Monday was conducted virtually over Zoom. (Reporting by Tina Bellon in New York Editing by Chris Reese)"

I've noticed the price tends to be higher first thing in the morning. Is this Robinhood neophytes placing orders overnight that are bunched up then? Also, what's with the people happy to overpay during pre-market every day recently?

If we close >= $1,500 today I will be very happy since it is like a new floor (trading range) prior to earnings on 7/22.

On a personal note: I spent the past few days swapping all but 34 shares out of my wife's Keogh (fully taxable if ever withdrawn) by sell/buy moving the rest of it into 4 tax-free Roth IRAs, and selling then buying all the Roth holdings into the Keogh account. Fidelity's Active Trader Pro(R) "multi-trade" screen allowed me to sell 20 names at a time out of the Roths to raise capital to buy the equivalent TSLA. We still have low hundreds in some normal accounts, but they are just capital gains taxes so not as painful if we ever sell any of them. This exercise avoids doing a "Roth IRA conversion" which incurs ordinary income tax here in the U.S. (ouch!) in the year you do that. What I don't like about it is it resets the cost basis for all the securities that were in the Roths now in the Keogh, not to mention all the TSLA shares that are now in the Roths. I will have to use Quicken to track this now.

Algo bots took the stock down a bit with the words in the headline, not the meaning.

 

[smorgasbord]

anyone dare to sell $3500 strike covered call expiring 7/24?

It only pays $4, so why?

EDIT: The real question is: Who's got the guts to:
• Sell the Jan 21 $3500 Call for $121
AND
• Sell the Jan 21 $1200 Put for $239

that's $36K for potentially being forced to buy TSLA at $1200 and selling at $3500

I can see it now: Forced to sell at $3500 in Aug/Sept, then Forced to buy back at $1200 after S&P inclusion wears off and some macro news hits.

Or, just pocket $36K while HODLing.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Such manipulation going on.......Consolidation before blast off

 

[kyzhk]

It only pays $4, so why?

Suppose you have 4000 shares, you get low risk $16000 premium for it which can be used to buy more TSLA.
Imagine doing this every week.

 

[Garlands]

Looks like the 3k drop has helped peak Model Y interest:

 

[mikevbf]

I've always defended Fred but the word "shut down" sure sounds like FUD.

Here is an example of a less FUDDY way of conveying basically same info:
Tesla is expanding its Model Y production line at Fremont
Bravo Teslarati

 

[Nocturnal]

Suppose you have 4000 shares, you get low risk $16000 premium for it which can be used to buy more TSLA.
Imagine doing this every week.

7/31 at around $10 seems better. I'm considering selling a couple. Not a lot of money but I'd sell all my shares for $3500 today if asked. Hitting over 3500 seems very unlikely this month.

 

[juanmedina]

anyone dare to sell $3500 strike covered call expiring 7/24?

are you serious? why not? they were $1600 bucks the other day, I would do it for that.

 

[Krugerrand]

Great, now the whole state is going into lock-down.

And without testing available except for those obviously sick.

 

[smorgasbord]

Suppose you have 4000 shares, you get low risk $16000 premium for it which can be used to buy more TSLA.
Imagine doing this every week.

Upping the quantity doesn't make the trade more worthwhile at all. It's still $4 on $1500. If you had 4000 shares, you'd be sitting on $6 Million, so $16K is in the noise, literally.

People thought similarly about $1200 strikes not that long ago and got burnt.

I still think my Jan 21 sell/sell pair is the better option for a percentage of one's shares. I'm OK selling some of my shares at $3500 in the next 6 months and I'm also OK buying more at $1200, and getting paid for the possibility.

 

[kyzhk]

Upping the quantity doesn't make the trade more worthwhile at all. It's still $4 on $1500. If you had 4000 shares, you'd be sitting on $6 Million, so $16K is in the noise, literally.

People thought similarly about $1200 strikes not that long ago and got burnt.

I still think my Jan 21 sell/sell pair is the better option for a percentage of one's shares. I'm OK selling some of my shares at $3500 in the next 6 months and I'm also OK buying more at $1200, and getting paid for the possibility.

Farther out covered calls at same strike are way more risky in getting ITM, and does not provide meaningfully more premium compared to selling weeklies repeatedly. Selling weeklies provide you flexibility to stop selling/moving to higher strike along with stock surge, and letting current ones expire.

 

[Tyler34]

Selling calls on TSLA for $4 is like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

 

[Tim S]

7/31 at around $10 seems better. I'm considering selling a couple. Not a lot of money but I'd sell all my shares for $3500 today if asked. Hitting over 3500 seems very unlikely this month.

Just sold a 7/31 $2500 strike call contract for $2500. Couldn't resist the symmetry. I'm willing to part with 100 shares at that price.

Also, green!

 

[computerchuck]

green

 

[kyzhk]

Selling calls on TSLA for $4 is like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

or, 14% dividend per year from your tsla holdings with little risk of assignment for the weeklies (at current stock price, need +130% in a single week to risk assignment).

Though I expect the $3500 strike premium to go down following IV crush after some consolidation.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Personally, I'm a fan of selling weeklies deep OTM preferably after a big upswing early in the week - especially when options are as outrageously expensive as they are right now. Have grown my portfolio by 6% in the last 6 weeks alone using this method. Proceeds go right back into the purchase of LEAPS or shares, or for use as collateral. Alternatively, I like to also sell OTM put credit spreads on downswings.

For those of us not sitting on a ton of capital and/or not yet at our share goal, this is a risky method of increasing delta. I prefer it to swing trading.

EDIT: I suppose I would continue to employ this strategy less aggressively even after achieving desired delta simply as a method to generate some extra cash flow.

 

[smorgasbord]

Farther out covered calls at same strike are way more risky in getting ITM, and does not provide meaningfully more premium compared to selling weeklies repeatedly. Selling weeklies provide you flexibility to stop selling/moving to higher strike along with stock surge, and letting current ones expire.

I do agree that weeklies have their place, but not at crazy high strikes that only earn about a quarter of 1%.

I myself have started selling weekly calls around $2k on less than 10% of my shares. That pays 9X more ($32.50 vs $4). Yes, it's more risky in that it could be exercised, but I'd be happy to take some profits off the table should that occur on <10% of my shares.

 

[Nocturnal]

I do agree that weeklies have their place, but not at crazy high strikes that only earn about a quarter of 1%.

I myself have started selling weekly calls around $2k on less than 10% of my shares. That pays 9X more ($32.50 vs $4). Yes, it's more risky in that it could be exercised, but I'd be happy to take some profits off the table should that occur on <10% of my shares.

Perhaps I'm seeing it wrong. Taking the 7/31 $3500 for example. Premium is around 950, which is peanuts, but the odds of SP hitting 3500 is very low.

Would you sell me all/some of your shares today at $3500?