Coronavirus

[Norbert]

I just take it at face value - it's a formula based on the number of cases (specifically the change in cases over time). And they apply some correction now based on the testing levels. That's just going to produce a curve of Rt retrospectively. The site doesn't say anything about what Rt is now, and it is not a reflection of how many cases exist (in an absolute sense there is no such relationship), or how many deaths will occur.

I think it's a reasonable guide for what Rt has been, but I'm sure it's not 100% accurate. It's just a formula and if you feed it incorrect data the answer won't be right - and in all cases in all states with significant disease burden, they are guessing at the actual number of cases. So there is definitely going to be error, and test methodology changes over time will introduce additional errors.

Why would you take it at face value? I don't. It does say what they think Rt is, until about a week ago, past that it wouldn't have much effect on current death numbers. We would expect that deaths go down, and maybe they will. Or maybe not, rt.live can't really tell us, even though we would expect it to.

Basically, just a website that allows you to see the impact of distancing measures and will tell us how things went, a couple weeks after we have taken actions. Fortunately states are looking at this data in closer to real time (but there is definitely always a delay)!

If you want to feel good about distancing measures, it does that. But it doesn't show you the lack thereof. Too much green.

I can't prove or disprove this. The relationship between cases and mortality is complex. There are counting issues, treatment changes, dependence on exposed population, etc. I think it's hard to conclude that if the death numbers don't do exactly what you expect that there is some flaw in their formulas.

I haven't looked at the formulas, but who did? If the death numbers don't do what we would expect, then the graphs are not as meaningful as we want them to be. They don't say what we think they say.

 

[PeterJA]

Bless your heart, @PeterJA Dramatic/provocative/argumentative writing style is usually a giveaway that the text is not intended for scientific audience, but maybe to gull the uninformed.

Thanks for the blessing. Your comment might also help the folks who posted insults, ridicule, unsupported claims, and obvious falsehoods in response to the peer-reviewed science I cited and linked here for days.

I'd say failure to even look at text written by distinguished doctors and scientists is usually a giveaway that the audience is not interested in science that conflicts with their beliefs.

Edit: I see you edited your post to add a few sentences from the distinguished doctors and professors, and emphasized the "dramatic/provocative" words Many lives and Tragically. Maybe you wouldn't use those words after drastically reducing mortality from a pandemic killing thousands elsewhere, but I can't join your sneering at these doctors fighting on the front line.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I haven't looked at the formulas, but who did? If the death numbers don't do what we would expect, then the graphs are not as meaningful as we want them to be. They don't say what we think they say.

Yeah we will see. Thinking about it heartlessly, for the purposes of ending the epidemic, the number of deaths doesn’t matter. But Rt does.

For the purposes of reopening, Rt alone does not matter. You need to take into account all the other factors mentioned previously as well.

Why would you take it at face value?

I just take it as a formulaic interpretation of the current case numbers (I have not read their methodology, so I could be full of crap, but I assume it is not based on deaths). That will just give the results from their formula. That is what I mean by face value. I think it tells you (roughly speaking) whether the ratio of new cases per day on subsequent days was above or below 1, 1-2 weeks ago, presumably with some smoothing of the input data.

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon continues to be a dumb-dumb with Covid.

Look up excess mortality studies. Basically, look at the usual number of deaths happening per week vs what is happening now. Guess what? It might be double the number of recorded Covid deaths. This is the big picture change of what's happening b/c Covid.

Example :

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAFegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw3gdGgOksir2FFO32Ttjjhz

As a scientist, Elon's constant minimization of Covids' effect seems pathetic and annoying.

I am not saying anything about whether Fremont should open or not, just that Elon is either disillusioned or purposely trying to twist information.

If you disagree, come @ me with your data.

EDIT: this was supposed to be in the investor thread, but they don't like any negative there I guess

 

[renim]

At my wife's hospital and at our Giant food market there is a wheeled robot that goes around with UV lights on it. It stops if someone is in the way. Not sure how effective the UV lights are since it is usually moving. View attachment 540387

Minecraft creeper?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I guess I would do the following concern trolling:

To add to the concern trolling list, I read through Tesla’s plan, but I did not see any mention of unlimited full pay sick leave for anyone staying home for COVID symptoms (or COVID symptoms for anyone they have been in contact with).

I assume they would allow unlimited sick leave with pay for such people since they require a doctor’s note to return to work (with the exception of those who are with someone with COVID symptoms). So presumably these workers just have to request the time off, as much as they need, as many times as they need. But that is not made clear - maybe I missed it.

 

[SMAlset]

So I see that VP Pence is now self-isolating at home. That's smart given it was his aide. Report said he has tested negative so far.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So I see that VP Pence is now self-isolating at home. That's smart given it was his aide. Report said he has tested negative so far.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This whole White House thing is the least surprising event ever. The only thing that is moderately surprising is that it did not happen earlier. That being said, disease burden is probably near a peak in the DC area. So perhaps the timing makes some sense.

 

[Norbert]

Yeah we will see. Thinking about it heartlessly, for the purposes of ending the epidemic, the number of deaths doesn’t matter. But Rt does.

For the purposes of reopening, Rt alone does not matter. You need to take into account all the other factors mentioned previously as well.

It would be wonderful if we had an accurate real time Rt rendering. I'm not dismissing that. However, my impression is that death number progression is a better Rt indicator than rt.live's calculations, even with the additional lag.

I just take it as a formulaic interpretation of the current case numbers (I have not read their methodology, so I could be full of crap, but I assume it is not based on deaths). That will just give the results from their formula. That is what I mean by face value. I think it tells you (roughly speaking) whether the ratio of new cases per day on subsequent days was above or below 1, 1-2 weeks ago, presumably with some smoothing of the input data.

Plus an attempt to correct for the changing testing levels/capacity (since 4/26). Something seems to go wrong there.

 

[eevee-fan]

This whole White House thing is the least surprising event ever. The only thing that is moderately surprising is that it did not happen earlier. That being said, disease burden is probably near a peak in the DC area. So perhaps the timing makes some sense.

Guess this is applicable in the WH right about now...
First they came ... - Wikipedia...

 

[kyzhk]

Elon continues to be a dumb-dumb with Covid.

Look up excess mortality studies. Basically, look at the usual number of deaths happening per week vs what is happening now. Guess what? It might be double the number of recorded Covid deaths. This is the big picture change of what's happening b/c Covid.

Example :

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAFegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw3gdGgOksir2FFO32Ttjjhz

As a scientist, Elon's constant minimization of Covids' effect seems pathetic and annoying.

I am not saying anything about whether Fremont should open or not, just that Elon is either disillusioned or purposely trying to twist information.

If you disagree, come @ me with your data.

View attachment 540436

EDIT: this was supposed to be in the investor thread, but they don't like any negative there I guess

Are there studies about excess death from peope who are not treated due to covid19? In some US cities there are hospitals with lower than pre covid19 utilization.

Rather than attributing all excess death to direct casualty from covid19 might be helpful to get a estimate how much of those come from lack of access to treatment that are normally available for other diseases.

I'm not biased toward one or the other, just thought that we should be objective in the assessment before concluding all excess death are directly due to covid19.

 

[Robertj]

Although all excess deaths may not be attributable to Covid 19

it maybe that the Covid deaths are in fact more than the excess

due to lower deaths from

vehicle accidents
Muggings
School shootings etc

 

[kyzhk]

Although all excess deaths may not be attributable to Covid 19

it maybe that the Covid deaths are in fact more than the excess

due to lower deaths from

vehicle accidents
Muggings
School shootings etc

Known fact that is observed:
1) There are excess deaths in some cities adjusted for seasonality compared to historical norm.

Hypothesis that can be tested:
1) Excess death are mainly contributed by death from covid19
2) Excess death are mainly contributed by certain lockdown practices that exacerbates mental illness, and prevention of access to proper treatment in other diseases, etc.
3) ...

One could simply indicate on time axis on the onset of covid19 for 1), but it's equally easy to do so with 2) where you indicate the start of lockdown practices instead and would arrive at the flawed conclusion that 1) or 2) is true. In both scenario you would see an increase in death rate following the marked events and arrive at different conclusions which are equally flawed.

This is just a clear "correlation does not imply causation" case. Frankly with the provided data we are not in a position to evaluate the different hypothesis for excess death. There needs to be an investigation on death cause classification to get a clear picture of what happened.

 

[linux-works]

Thanks for the blessing.

in case you didn't catch that:

Bless your heart - Wikipedia

a bit more Urban Dictionary: Bless your heart (#4 is pretty much spot-on)

 

[Norbert]

2) Excess death are mainly contributed by certain lockdown practices that exacerbates mental illness, and prevention of access to proper treatment in other diseases, etc.

I believe if that were the case, we would likely already have heard about that on this thread (in some substantial way).
(EDIT: For example we get inside reports from a New York hospital every few days.)

This is just a clear "correlation does not imply causation" case. Frankly with the provided data we are not in a position to evaluate the different hypothesis for excess death. There needs to be an investigation on death cause classification to get a clear picture of what happened.

We could have more information about the details, but the general picture is quite clear. Even if the exact numbers are not known, and there is no complete certainty. A few people argue otherwise, but they usually come with a lot of baggage.

 

[linux-works]

The problem is that for the past thirty years, Democrats have also embraced the "corporations over people" strategy (with a very few exceptions).

its true that all those in power have sold out the regular working person. however, its not 'bsab' - one side clearly has made their goal in life to destroy unions, push more and more power to the bosses and shrink salary and employee bargaining (h1b, etc). employees are simply treated better by corps in blue states, overall. some of it is respect, some is fear of legal consequences.

we have no left in the US. we have center and far right. so, all things are skewed abnormally, these days. our yin is yanging when it should be yinging, and so on

 

[Norbert]

We seem to be going for a record low in deaths today.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Are there studies about excess death from peope who are not treated due to covid19? In some US cities there are hospitals with lower than pre covid19 utilization.

Rather than attributing all excess death to direct casualty from covid19 might be helpful to get a estimate how much of those come from lack of access to treatment that are normally available for other diseases.

I'm not biased toward one or the other, just thought that we should be objective in the assessment before concluding all excess death are directly due to covid19.

As I understand it there is growing evidence that people are dying from heart attacks, strokes, etc out of the fear of going to the hospital. These are not things that simply go on vacation.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-phobia-keeping-heart-patients-away-from-er/

In that article it mentions a survey of nine major hospitals that showed the number of severe heart attack being treated at those hospitals dropped by 40%.

I myself had a pretty consistent amount of unusually high head pressure over the last couple months. For awhile there I was hearing a low frequency noise that wasn't real. I went as far as using a Microphone to look at a spectrogram to show that there wasn't anything there. I'm not sleeping well where I'm lucky to get 4 hours a night. Some days are better than others, and I'm simply trying not to go crazy.

I'm pretty convinced that some of it is being caused by wisdom teeth pushing up against other teeth, and a bad tooth. I went to the dentist when the pain from that got really bad, and they said I'd have to have all those teeth removed. But, they then had to cancel the appointments (I scheduled cleaning before a consultation on getting the teeth removed).

Before the dentist appointment I did get an MRI because other weird crap was happening before the tooth aches. Like below my eye on one side started twitching. Back then the head pressure wasn't so bad. I say pressure because it's not quite like a headache. I dunno how to describe it other than pressure. I kinda of freaked out because there is a history of MS, and strokes in my family. Luckily they didn't find anything. They did find some "bright" spots, but didn't seem too concerned.

I mention myself because I imagine there are millions of Americans like me who have something they're dealing with, and they will until something gives.

I think we might want to strongly consider using the 2020 census as a welfare check. To make sure there aren't people dead in their houses, and no one knows they've died because they live alone.

 

[GFernandes]

Elon continues to be a dumb-dumb with Covid.

Look up excess mortality studies. Basically, look at the usual number of deaths happening per week vs what is happening now. Guess what? It might be double the number of recorded Covid deaths. This is the big picture change of what's happening b/c Covid.

Example :

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAFegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw3gdGgOksir2FFO32Ttjjhz

As a scientist, Elon's constant minimization of Covids' effect seems pathetic and annoying.

I am not saying anything about whether Fremont should open or not, just that Elon is either disillusioned or purposely trying to twist information.

If you disagree, come @ me with your data.

View attachment 540436

EDIT: this was supposed to be in the investor thread, but they don't like any negative there I guess

I disagree, here's the data:
If you look at excess mortality from Euromomo : https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ you'll realize this is equivalent to a bad influenza season. 2014/2015 had 144k . 2020 Covid has 148k. And since its a late outbreak the "excess mortality" will only be inflated since the baseline is lower. If you go by total mortality instead you'll realize that 16/17 and 17/18 are also at equivalent levels from 2020 outbreak and 14/15 is quite higher. If you go back to 99/2000 it was an actual destruction by today's media standards. P.S. for 2014/2015 data you'll have to go to their historical bulletins, it doesn't appear in the graphs anymore. It was 30% worse than 16/17 so you have an idea.

Also take a look at IFR. IFR for flu is well known to be 0,1% throughout many years of studying. Often is under. But it also goes higher. Italy has seasons at 0,3-0,7% :
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/...vLM_8VAmC_Hrxd7FUHxre_sPwFxA8d0z6VrBN_aInPd4o

Serological tests are telling us CV19 to be in the 0,2-0,5% ballpark, equivalent to a bad influenza season: PCR and Serological Studies

Come at me with your answer and data

 

[Norbert]

As I understand it there is growing evidence that people are dying from heart attacks, strokes, etc out of the fear of going to the hospital. These are not things that simply go on vacation.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-phobia-keeping-heart-patients-away-from-er/

In that article it mentions a survey of nine major hospitals that showed the number of severe heart attack being treated at those hospitals dropped by 40%.

I see concerns, but no "growing evidence" that people die at home without getting reported, in significant numbers. Not in that article.
Another explanation might be that the stay at home order gives people rest. No traffic, no work, no physical stress. But I'm no doctor. One could think of all kind of things. However we do know that traffic accidents are reduced significantly.