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‘I can almost go from my house to work with no intervention’ - Musk
- Thread starter Sparkeur
- Start date
MrBadger
Badger out
I'm not sure that is a particularly good thing to be excited about. Some other autonomous vehicle system developers are reporting numbers in region of several thousand miles between disengagements although some are not doing so well.
California DMV releases autonomous vehicle disengagement reports for 2019
Uh, I am guessing this is a joke reply to my joke post
Yes and no
Here over the pond there is no smart enhanced super duper un-regulated uncensored summon..... So 2 meters is a bout right.
Hard to argue with that, Tesla do eventually deliver on Elons twitter commitments the MCU1 to MCU2 upgrades for example.
If you told me in 2010 I would be driving an electric SUV with powered gull wing doors that I can control from my phone I would have called you mad.
Though FSD seems a long way away no one here has a crystal ball into the future.
The last AP software upgrade in 2018 did bring noticeable improvements. I for one am also excited to see what the AP software rewrite will bring to the table.
Regardless of what you think of Tesla we can atleast all agree if anyone of us had bought a different car we wouldn't even bother with this thread.
How many iPace/eTron/Taycann owners right now is looking fowards to an over the air software update which could change the functionality of their car overnight??
How do you manage to drive with just in effect one camera?
When you are looking left/right/behind what camera are you using to check the road ahead is still clear?
When the sun partially blinds your vision how do you have the confidence to keep going?
This is just a video game screen shot but I imagine real F1 drivers get this view when racing in the wet, their actual 'vision' in nearly zero, yet they still manage to race.
We can drive fine with just one camera because our brain builds a 3D map in our heads. When vision is blocked we make unconscious assumptions about the road ahead based on this map. F1 drivers memorise the track, so vision is simply a reference point for braking not an absolute trigger.
This is what the whole AP software rewrite is suppose to do, instead of relying on cameras to provide real time data for decision making, the FSD computer is instead making decisions based on a 3D map of what's around the car formulated from the camera inputs. So even if you than loss 20% vision you can still carry on providing you let the system assume nothing much has actually changed about the road ahead even if you cannot fully see it.
How well the Tesla team can get the FSD to mimics our brains ability to construct a 3D space from very limited visual data is the real challenge, its not about cameras or sensors, its the software and computing power needed.
AndrewGR
Member
Tesla’s cameras seem to get blocked or blinded much more easily than human eyes. It’s not clear that the message means that their input is being totally ignored though. Maybe they, like human vision, are just degraded when looking towards the sun or through mud splatters. Without wipers, snow could be a problem though.
Legislation always drags behind innovation. When the “motor carriage” was new (19th century), a law was passed in the UK stating that “all such carriages were to be preceeded on the roadway by a human supervisor, on foot, in front of the carriage, holding a red flag in clear view”. (I’m not making this up.)
Remember that most legislators are lawyers, who know nothing about the subject matter about which they are legislating. What could possibly go wrong?
Human drivers (even F1 drivers) slow down in grotty weather and when partially blinded whereas (should i let it) my Tesla will happily hurtle towards a blind bend at national speed limits before bugging out with a bleep. Even when it does use it's ability to slow for bends on speed imited roads it leaves it later than I would - not a confidence booster. Yes ot can be programmed to behave otherwise - and should have ben long ago.
Thats one of the criteria for feature complete as set out by the NHTSA and one that Tesla currently does nothing about.
Humans have the ability to move slightly, shield their eyes, apply a filter (aka as sunglasses), and decide to slow down. We might even drive in a different lane if that aided our ability to drive safely. We also try and anticipate whats going to happen rather than react when it does.
I fully appreciate whoever made the point about when cars first appeared they had to follow somebody with a flag, but thats not to say at that time it wasn't the right thing to do until the capabilities of the car and the environment adjusted to the technology. Motorways didn't have central reservsations but I'm sure plenty of people are glad they do now, things take time to evolve.
To me there are those that believe its imminent and those that don't, but those that don't believe its about to happen don't necessarily believe it will never happen. I don't think Tesla will deliver anything approaching true FSD with the current cars just as I don't think anyone would have thought Henry Ford could get a Model T to lab the ring in under 20 mins (if the ring existed back then). its the pace its going to happen for Tesla thats at question not whether its every going to happen, .and its whether they think a few cameras a cheapish radar and some grunty processing board is enough.
You make an interesting point. Elon has stated all that is needed for FSD is a software upgrade. He has also stated FSD is Tesla's top priority. If he cannot deliver FSD with the current hardware, in a reasonable time frame, he faces a class action lawsuit: he would know that.
I go back the the simple fact (as Larry Ellison of Oracle has pointed out) that Elon is the guy that is landing space rockets on their tails on drone ships out at sea. No one has made money betting against Elon so far.
The camera system has the ability to change the exposure far more effectively than human eyes do, and if partially blinded still has radar to back it up. The real issue is human's take risks which is necessary to keep traffic moving. You get blinded by rain/sun/snow you reduce speed and make an educated guess as to what is up front and continue in the hope that things improve. 99% of the time that's fine, but the other 1% is a crash/incident/wrong decision because you effectively drove blind.
If it's not acceptable for an AI to take a risk and drive blind like a human does, then it will struggle to do anything other than brake heavily in the event vision is obscured. If it is allowed to take risk then it also has to be acceptable for it to crash/have an incident.
It's not going to be possibly to make an automated car that won't crash, it just has to crash a lot less than a flesh blob.
If it's not acceptable for an AI to take a risk and drive blind like a human does, then it will struggle to do anything other than brake heavily in the event vision is obscured. If it is allowed to take risk then it also has to be acceptable for it to crash/have an incident.
It's not going to be possibly to make an automated car that won't crash, it just has to crash a lot less than a flesh blob.
Tesla's excuse for having 'beta' wiper software is you need to understand rain in order for FSD.
I've seen AP2 go from nearly useless when it was launched in Dec 2016 to something which now has real potential.
I reserve judgement on FSD till we see what this AP software rewrite bring to the table.
It had potential in 2016, but thats the trouble with Tesla and FSD - it's all about what it might do. There is absolutely no excuse that I can see for calling all the software Beta - when is he actually going to say "there you go". Thats not to say things would stay the same, it can improve. I'm sure I read somewhere somebody saying "the world in beta" as if its never finished, I think thats stating the obvious. We continually look to improve.
The camera exposure system doesn't really work with a gob of mud over the lens and the radar is limited in range and can see sideways.
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
Oh I see. I got confused because it seemed like Elon was talking about AP taking him from home to work (almost). I see you are talking about summon.Yes and no
Here over the pond there is no smart enhanced super duper un-regulated uncensored summon..... So 2 meters is a bout right.
I'm not a fan of it just yet. It makes me nervous.It is easy to drive thousands of miles without intervention on the American highway network. Distance means nothing. On city roads, and country back roads there is often no right answer. So you figure something out and hopefully don't die. I'm not sure I would trust my fate to even Elon's super advanced version of FSD.
On the other hand, I would LOVE to have it.
When Tesla are so confident that they are happy to underwrite and Insure the risk of all fully FSD journeys, that’s when I will be happy to pay for and use FSD, for now it is a great assist for long motorway journeys and the rest is pure marketing
Rooster6655
Active Member
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