15 degrees, snowing [discussion on energy situation in Texas]

[CrazyRabbit]

Yes, PEX is much better at not cracking or breaking in freezing conditions than copper, and both are enormously better than galvanized pipe.

But better is a relative term. Once the pipes freeze, you start to get into the details of whether or not your installer allowed enough slack for contraction, whether they used sweeps or elbows, what kind of fittings and manifolds were installed (and their quality!), exactly how they froze, and just how close that errant nail or drywall screw is to the contracted pipe. Cracked pipes are up there in my book with whole house floods and mold as top home disasters.

I am a PEX fan. The only downside in my book is that you need specialized tools to install/repair it, and someone who understands its' strengths and weakness. It isn't copper, and is ideally plumbed differently.

BG

when pex couplings freeze does it damage the crimp.

 

[CrazyRabbit]

Breakers protect against overcurrent. The things that bring the grid down are under-voltage and under-frequency. I recommend reading ' The Grid '. I thought it was interesting.

sorry, i can't read a book by a phd with an agenda. but back in japan in the 70's the frequency would drop sufficiently you could see the lights strobe, and it didn't bring the grid down. so i don't understand what ercot thinks would be the failure, i'm not doubting their claim. i'm guessing the generator windings would be destroyed by exceeding capacity.
all substations have fuses, they may look like a horizontal isolator, and distribution lines usually have auto loading fuses. so if a limb drops on the line they actually try to clear the fault with current three times... transformers have huge fault current capability.

 

[CrazyRabbit]

local news is reporting the rolling blackouts where not caused be wind energy! but wind was forecasted to be very low. back in 2011, superbowl storm at jerry's world, they all shutdown during that storm. i checked the ercots web site and wind was forecasted to be well below a one giga watt... COP HSL for Current Day Forecasted and Actual Wind Power Production
so that statement is not accurate. if we were not installing only wind we would have built out other generation sources and not have had the rolling blackouts. I don't know it it is possible to retrofit bade anti icing to existing wind mill, could be as simple as putting "forced air space heaters" in the blades.
Texas relies to much on natural gas for winter power, natural gas wells/delivery system can't keep up with the demand, being gas heat and gas electric generation.
when it was -1 out Tuesday Morning, there was NO wind, ZERO. so windmills are not the solution, neither is solar.

 

[CrazyRabbit]

ercot needs to add gas production number to their electric production estimate. really this should have been projected. I predicted this and said so at work. coworkers said, "you just want it to happen since you have powerwalls". which i don't, they are still on order...

 

[ReddyLeaf]

local news is reporting the rolling blackouts where not caused be wind energy! but wind was forecasted to be very low. back in 2011, superbowl storm at jerry's world, they all shutdown during that storm. i checked the ercots web site and wind was forecasted to be well below a one giga watt... COP HSL for Current Day Forecasted and Actual Wind Power Production
so that statement is not accurate. if we were not installing only wind we would have built out other generation sources and not have had the rolling blackouts. I don't know it it is possible to retrofit bade anti icing to existing wind mill, could be as simple as putting "forced air space heaters" in the blades.
Texas relies to much on natural gas for winter power, natural gas wells/delivery system can't keep up with the demand, being gas heat and gas electric generation.
when it was -1 out Tuesday Morning, there was NO wind, ZERO. so windmills are not the solution, neither is solar.

Here, since you continue to spout FUD and can’t be bothered to learn the truth, let me fix that for you. This is directly from ERCOT, regarding the FEb 2011 event, and yes, probably a few PhDs contributed to the analysis.
MEDIA ADVISORY: Forced Outage List -- Final Update Posted

News Release
March 29, 2011

• 
  
• MEDIA ADVISORY: Forced Outage List -- Final Update Posted

The final list of generation units that experienced a forced outage during last month’s severe weather event, Feb. 1- 4, has been posted on the ERCOT website in the News/Reports/Emergency Response section at this link.

The forced outages identified by time period are:

• 50 units: Feb. 2, midnight to 5:43 a.m. , the beginning of the rotating outages
• 91 units: Feb. 2, midnight to 1 p.m. , the end of the rotating outages
• 102 units: Feb. 2, midnight to 11:59 p.m. , the full operating day
• 152 units: Feb. 1-4, the full period of the winter storm.

The units on the list represent those whose owners or operators have given ERCOT written consent to publicly disclose the unit names and represent approximately 99 percent of all the units that experienced a forced outage at some time during Feb. 1-4.

Finally, here’s the full list of outages. Please note that of the 152 units offline, only THREE were wind (and one of those was retired 2 yr later, so probably older or not properly maintained)
http://www.ercot.com/content/news/presentations/2011/Forced Outage List - Public Version 1.4.doc

Go ahead, continue to believe what you want, but please stop pushing the FUD drug.

Edit: When the final analysis of the current 2021 weather event is complete, it will probably show that wind production was close to predictions, thermal failed when needed the most due to inadequate or nonexistent cold weather resilience, and all was caused by a weather event that was more significant than anticipated. The solutions for the future are the same ones suggested after the 2011 event: require cold weather protections on all generators, expand grid to non-correlated regions (east-west, not north).

 

[nwdiver]

sorry, i can't read a book by a phd with an agenda. .

???? So you don't read books? No book is written without an Agenda. At least in this case the agenda is explaining the grid from the perspective of an Anthropologist so it's easier to understand how it works.

 

[nwdiver]

if we were not installing only wind we would have built out other generation sources and not have had the rolling blackouts.

??? What other sources? For what purpose? ERCOT had plenty of capacity... it just wasn't weatherized. Had they added GW of natural gas it would have just sat there idle until it failed to start a week ago since it wouldn't have been weatherized to save money. They build wind because wind is free and natural gas is not. Xcel has 20% more capacity than they need but they added 500MW of wind. Why? Because the fuel is free and the LCOE of the turbines is $18/MWh vs $30/MWh they pay for fuel for their natural gas turbines. But they didn't retire a single MW of gas. Why? BECAUSE THE PURPOSE OF WIND IS TO SAVE FUEL NOT TO SUPPORT THE GRID...... THE PURPOSE OF WIND IS TO SAVE FUEL NOT TO SUPPORT THE GRID.

so windmills are not the solution, neither is solar.

Can you cite a single source that says they are? No one is saying wind and solar are the solution to blackouts. Renewables are the solution to using less MWh not less MW. The solution is properly weatherizing power plants that are supposed to be available when needed.

THE PURPOSE OF WIND IS TO SAVE FUEL NOT TO SUPPORT THE GRID.

 

[recluce]

I go back to: It is possible for all kinds of power plants: gas, coal. nuke, wind, solar to operate in colder weather than we have had. There are these sources in Canada, Scotland and even Alaska. The question is only are we willing to pay for the weatherization and then verify and hold accountable/enforce the rules we come up with. It will cost a bunch of money but that doesn't really matter if we come together and decide that's what we want we can make it happen.

You imply that these measure must increase cost, but if you look at electricity prices in British Columbia, Manitoba or Quebec (all mainly Hydro), they are among the lowest on the continent. Ontario (lots of nuclear) and Alberta (fossil) are typically a bit higher.

Here is what I pay in BC (same rate for everybody, no smoke and mirrors), 98% hydro:

• $0.0930 (7.4 Cents US) per kWh for first 1,350 in an average two month billing period (22.1918 kWh per day).
• $0.1394 (11 Cents US) per kWh over the 1,350 Step 1 threshold.

Quebec and Manitoba are lower.

Texas decided to lower electricity costs by cutting interconnection with other states. As a result, while there was sufficient power in the US at all times during the cold wave, it just couldn't get into Texas when in-state generation was insufficient. In the end, you got what you paid for.

 

[CrazyRabbit]

THE PURPOSE OF WIND IS TO SAVE FUEL NOT TO SUPPORT THE GRID.

but texas has been growing at a fast rate, and we should be adding base generation and haven't. we have been installing only wind over the past 15 years
writing is on the wall, this is the new normal, thus i need powerwalls.
then when everyone is driving electric and then demand goes thru the roof...

 

[nwdiver]

but texas has been growing at a fast rate, and we should be adding base generation and haven't. we have been installing only wind over the past 15 years
writing is on the wall, this is the new normal, thus i need powerwalls.

Yeah.... because unlike other ISOs that have minimum capacity requirements; ERCOT lets the 'invisible hand' determine available capacity. Hopefully that changes. Again... absolutely nothing to do with wind. If 1GW of gas might, maybe make you a few bucks if a once in 20 year event occurs and you get to use it and 1GW of wind will definitely save you $50M/yr. Which would you do? Spend $1B on a 90% chance of losing $20M/yr on maintaining 1GW of gas you'll probably never use OR spend $1B on a 99.99% chance on a $50M/yr profit? There's a reason other ISOs REQUIRE a minimum level of capacity. Because it's generally not in the economic interest of utilities to spend $$$ on maybes.

Xcel has a plant near my house that hasn't produced a kWh in ~2 years. They want to get rid of it to save $$$ but haven't been granted permission by the state PRC. Wouldn't have that problem in Texas.... but they have other problems instead... pick one.

The generators didn't even want to spend a few million on winterization... why on earth would they spend two orders of magnitude more on reserve capacity?

 

[CrazyRabbit]

Here is what I pay in BC (same rate for everybody, no smoke and mirrors), 98% hydro:

• $0.0930 (7.4 Cents US) per kWh for first 1,350 in an average two month billing period (22.1918 kWh per day).
• $0.1394 (11 Cents US) per kWh over the 1,350 Step 1 threshold.

i pay 8.5 cent per kwh

Texas decided to lower electricity costs by cutting interconnection with other states. As a result, while there was sufficient power in the US at all times during the cold wave, it just couldn't get into Texas when in-state generation was insufficient. In the end, you got what you paid for.

wow, fake news. there are four isolated grids in the united states.

west coast: 125Gw
texas: 75Gw
east coast: 600Gw
NE including part of canada: something small ~35GW

they are all interconnected thru many AC-DC-AC plants which can pump power in either direction. Plus there are three main setts of dc lines across the continental united states...
the EC grid has three regulation authorities and two of those regions, one SPP, had rolling blackouts at the same time. so the EC grid could not help, neither could the WC grid.

 

[nwdiver]

they are all interconnected thru many AC-DC-AC plants which can pump power in either direction. Plus there are three main setts of dc lines across the continental united states...
the EC grid has three regulation authorities and two of those regions, one SPP, had rolling blackouts at the same time. so the EC grid could not help, neither could the WC grid.

There are 4 ties total. Not sure that counts as 'many'. What's the capacity of those ties? I'd be surprised if it's even a GW.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

For podcast, transcript and more:
Failed State: Texas Power Grid Collapse Impacts Millions. Black & Brown Communities Are Worst Hit | Democracy Now!

 

[NikolaACDC]

There are 4 ties total. Not sure that counts as 'many'. What's the capacity of those ties? I'd be surprised if it's even a GW.

Well, you were close.
According to this document
http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/key_documents_lists/90055/ERCOT_DC_Tie_Operations_Document.docx

"There are two (2) commercially operational DC-Ties between ERCOT and the Eastern Interconnection:
• North (DC_N) located near Oklaunion (220 MW)
• East (DC_E) located near Monticello (600 MW)
There are two (2) commercially operational DC-Ties between ERCOT and CENACE:
• Railroad (DC_R) located near McAllen (300 MW)
• Laredo (DC_L) located near Laredo. This is a Variable Frequency Transformer (VFT) (100MW)

So according to that ~1.2GW
From what I saw in articles ERCOT was short >10GW

 

[ReddyLeaf]

but texas has been growing at a fast rate, and we should be adding base generation and haven't. we have been installing only wind over the past 15 years
writing is on the wall, this is the new normal, thus i need powerwalls.
then when everyone is driving electric and then demand goes thru the roof...

Again, please stop lying and spewing more FUD. let’s stick to the facts.

You have some good thoughts, for example, that yes, you may need to get PowerWalls. But because your state officials refuse to require winter weatherization of power generators, NOT because more renewables are being added to the mix.

Here are the facts from the EIA: yup, lots of gas added:
Natural gas-fired generation has increased in most U.S. regions since 2015 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

1990-2019, Existing Nameplate and Net Summer Capacity by Energy Source, Producer Type and State (EIA-860)
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/existcapacity_annual.xlsx
Plus lots of other great information/presentation at the EIA, no PhD required.
Natural gas, renewables dominate electric capacity additions in first half of 2012 - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Texas - State Energy Profile Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Scheduled 2015 capacity additions mostly wind and natural gas; retirements mostly coal - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Finally, for the Feb 2021 event: Early data clearly shows 20 GW loss of gas generators, coal & nuclear drop on Monday AM, while solar and wind doing what they always do (hint: variable as per normal and pretty easily predicted, apparently unlike thermal sources).
Extreme winter weather is disrupting energy supply and demand, particularly in Texas - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Here’s an interesting US summary. Yup, gas increasing

 

[Feathermerchan]

Texas chose not to be involved in interstate commerce and therefore regulated by the FERC. So Texas remains 'isolated' from the so called national grid. The DC ties mean that the Texas grid is not synchronized with the national grid and so does not fall under the definition of interstate commerce and FERC jurisdiction.

As for power walls and rolling blackouts, Power walls charging during times when electricity is on then discharging when electricity is off are great for you but not for everyone else. Why? When the charge by taking power from the grid, it more than offsets the power that is supposed to be saved when the power is turned off. So you are defeating the purpose of rolling blackouts. If it becomes common, utilities will have to find workarounds to reduce load in power emergencies or just black out and not roll.

 

[Jagwease]

Texas chose not to be involved in interstate commerce and therefore regulated by the FERC. So Texas remains 'isolated' from the so called national grid. The DC ties mean that the Texas grid is not synchronized with the national grid and so does not fall under the definition of interstate commerce and FERC jurisdiction.

You are correct. Texas law prohibits ERCOT from interconnects agreements. There was a magor scandal and a long court fight because of the "midnight interconnect" between a Texas power plant and Oklahoma. This nearly brought Texas into the Federal net, but alas, it was not to be.

My brother was the CEO of the Midwest RO (MAPP COR) for years before it merged into the Mega RO. Texas did not want "the feds in their grid" and it had been that way for decades. So when the grid ROs were set up, Texas passed, but not all of Texas because parts were in other ROs.

Texas had to come up with standards for the grid, so the adopted the NERC standards. If this sounds like a head scratcher, it gets better. By adopting the NERC standards, it needed enforcement and compliance.... so the chose NERC. Waaaaa? Yep, to keep the feds away they set up their own grid and now has the feds (sort of) regulating them.

Reliability standard violations are up to $1 million per violation per day. This might get expensive.

The problem with the current Charlie Foxtrot was there was power available, but not for Texas. You really can't blame ERCOT or the local power companies too much (well you can still blame them for a lot), but when the Texas Lege ties your hands, blinds you, and gags you when you try to get outside help, what can you do? The root cause of the problem is the Texas Lege and the myth of Texas exceptionalism.

Current media reports, which I am sure like all initial reports of any emergency are subject large change as more detailed investigations occur, tell the story that the initial delta between supply and demand was 2 gigawatts. It got worse after that.

Texas needs to join the rest of US and Canada so we don't have ERCOT threatening to tank the entire US economy because the Texas Lege wants to show how independent Texas is.

here is a good, enjoyable short read about why Texas has its own grid from the independent (nonprofit and created by a bipartisan group) and always readable Texas Tribune.. It is the "go to" news source for Texas Politics.

Texplainer: Why does Texas have its own power grid?

 

[SMAlset]

Pretty good article explaining winterizing windmills and why the ones in Texas failed compared to other northern states dealing with even colder winter temps.

Wind turbines can handle the cold just fine. Just look at Iowa.

 

[CrazyRabbit]

yes they do if you purchase them with anti icing system, which it seams texas hasn't... hopefully they will reconsider. don't know if anti icing can be retrofitted.

interesting @SMAlset, seems ice isn't a big problem in iowa.
"Because Iowa is blessed with drier ice, wind farms there haven’t had to invest in such elaborate measures".

 

[SMAlset]

Texas Monthly had this article on what steps El Paso took after they were hard hit with blackouts in 2011 and how they managed to stay powered this past week.

El Paso Heeded the Warnings and Avoided a Winter Catastrophe