15 degrees, snowing [discussion on energy situation in Texas]

[garrett5688]

On a side note, this is the reason we added Powerwalls. My wife wanted to ensure I would not be pissed starting at solar panels we could not use on a sunny day to power the home when the grid went down.

this is SO true. I briefly considered not getting PWs in exchange for a bigger PV array... I didn’t even lose power, but I would’ve gone berserk if I had a roof covered in useless panels.

I don’t think I could recommend anyone getting solar WITHOUT battery... and I think 2 powerwalls is a minimum. Otherwise just get a generator.

 

[Silicon Desert]

On a side note, this is the reason we added Powerwalls. My wife wanted to ensure I would not be pissed starting at solar panels we could not use on a sunny day to power the home when the grid went down.

You got me thinking of something. This likely wouldn't affect you so much as it rarely gets extremely cold in the bay area, yet in the far North or in this case, Texas, wouldn't it help to have those powerwalls in a garage where it might be just a few degrees warmer and no wind chill factor? As we know, batteries don't do very well in extremely cold weather.

 

[Silicon Desert]

Of course! I knew that. Not CO2 how silly or bad proof reading of me!

Well, but actually high CO2 will also kill you , but yea, I know what you mean.

 

[nwdiver]

Vogtle and Summer are fair criticisms, both are (were?) a disaster. Though I'm hesitant put all of nuclear in to the same bucket given the relative successes of AP1000 reactors overseas I completely understand the need for demonstrable proof that the cost estimates are indeed realtiy.

Thermal generation in general is just economically non-competitive vs gas turbines. The employment numbers really highlight this disparity. A 993MW combined cycle gas plant was recently completed in Texas. Total employment will be 31 people. 31 people for ~1GW. According to the NRC each 1GW unit at Vogtle will employ ~400 people once operational. 31 vs 400 for roughly the same power output.

Nuclear is best suited to an operational style we no longer need. We don't need a plant to operate at 100% 24/7/365. With wind and solar dirt cheap they'll be able to carry the grid more and more but we'll still need hundreds of GW of dispatch-able capacity on occasion. It costs ~$200M/yr to keep a GW of nuclear operational and ~$20M/yr to keep a GW of gas turbines operational. Nuclear simply makes no sense.

Lets say someone invents a 1kW nano-nuke. It costs $15,000 and you need to get it swapped annually for refurbishment at a cost of $200 regardless of how much it's used. Since we're using utility scale nuke costs solar also costs $1/w. So for $15k you can also get 15kW of solar. Would you buy a nano-nuke? For what purpose? To reduce your electric bill? The $15k nano-nuke produces 24kWh/day. $15k in solar would produce ~75kWh/day. For backup? You can get a 100# tank of propane and a 2kW Honda for ~$2k. It just doesn't make any sense.

 

[Feathermerchan]

In our 37 yr old house in DFW, the pipes are copper under the slab. In outside walls they are insulated. But why put them in outside walls? Just bring them up into the cabinet under the sink. We were without power 51 hours. No heat. And when it came back on, the thermostat said it was 42 degF. So copper can work if installed properly. It is probably more resistant to nails and screws than Pex.

 

[h2ofun]

In our 37 yr old house in DFW, the pipes are copper under the slab. In outside walls they are insulated. But why put them in outside walls? Just bring them up into the cabinet under the sink. We were without power 51 hours. No heat. And when it came back on, the thermostat said it was 42 degF. So copper can work if installed properly. It is probably more resistant to nails and screws than Pex.

I had a contractor put 3 nails right into the middle of a copper water line. It lasted a few months then let loose on my new hardwood floors.
Still trying to get this repair done.

 

[jboy210]

You got me thinking of something. This likely wouldn't affect you so much as it rarely gets extremely cold in the bay area, yet in the far North or in this case, Texas, wouldn't it help to have those powerwalls in a garage where it might be just a few degrees warmer and no wind chill factor? As we know, batteries don't do very well in extremely cold weather.

Getting them out of the weather was the reason we wall-mounted our PWs inside the garage. I worry not only about the cold, but also about the heat. As you know it does get hot in the East Bay in the summer. And especially at the logical outside point for the PWs at our home. It is a west-facing wall just outside the garage which in the summer gets direct sun from 1 PM until the sun goes behind the hills. And heat must be an issue with PW since the PW batteries are liquid-cooled with a radiator and fans.

 

[jboy210]

this is SO true. I briefly considered not getting PWs in exchange for a bigger PV array... I didn’t even lose power, but I would’ve gone berserk if I had a roof covered in useless panels.

I don’t think I could recommend anyone getting solar WITHOUT battery... and I think 2 powerwalls is a minimum. Otherwise just get a generator.

You are kind of unique for Texas based on the comments in this forum. Many people from Texas post they the power is so cheap and reliable there is no need for PowerWalls. You must be like me, belt and suspenders!

 

[Silicon Desert]

Getting them out of the weather was the reason we wall-mounted our PWs inside the garage. I worry not only about the cold, but also about the heat. As you know it does get hot in the East Bay in the summer. And especially at the logical outside point for the PWs at our home. It is a west-facing wall just outside the garage which in the summer gets direct sun from 1 PM until the sun goes behind the hills. And heat must be an issue with PW since the PW batteries are liquid-cooled with a radiator and fans.

Hmmmm, a really good point. It's the same reason we put out inverter in the garage in the bay area home. Less heat is a better thing on electronics.

 

[gpez]

this is SO true. I briefly considered not getting PWs in exchange for a bigger PV array... I didn’t even lose power, but I would’ve gone berserk if I had a roof covered in useless panels.

I don’t think I could recommend anyone getting solar WITHOUT battery... and I think 2 powerwalls is a minimum. Otherwise just get a generator.

My neighbor has a slightly larger PV install and has a much better roof layout so he constantly "beats" me in solar production but he doesn't have PWs. My only solace is that if (when?) the power goes out my system will be able to catch up while his is shut down

 

[Silicon Desert]

In our 37 yr old house in DFW, the pipes are copper under the slab. In outside walls they are insulated. But why put them in outside walls? Just bring them up into the cabinet under the sink. We were without power 51 hours. No heat. And when it came back on, the thermostat said it was 42 degF. So copper can work if installed properly. It is probably more resistant to nails and screws than Pex.

I guess you are thinking about people in Texas or locations when it can get freezing for long periods of time. I agree, but in parts of California, for earthquake reasons, often, pipes are not put into the slab.

 

[jboy210]

PEX is pretty much standard on new construction here and has been for years, but there are just so many older homes with copper or other materials that it is a major widespread problem. And the problems will be concentrated just based on neighborhood ages.

By us most of the homes have had to be re-pipped. Where they abandon the leaking copper pipes in the slab and replaced them with PEX running in the ceilings. I suspect we will have to do this soon and our newly remodeled walls and ceilings will have to be opened up.

 

[SMAlset]

You got me thinking of something. This likely wouldn't affect you so much as it rarely gets extremely cold in the bay area, yet in the far North or in this case, Texas, wouldn't it help to have those powerwalls in a garage where it might be just a few degrees warmer and no wind chill factor? As we know, batteries don't do very well in extremely cold weather.

I would assume due to the high 90s, 100+ high temps in Texas PWs are not as often placed outside if at all possible as batteries don't like high temps either.

The SF Bay area isn't immune to these polar vortex attacks of very cold extended freezing temps. Pretty thankful we were spared although I know Oregon got hit with it. Local topography here affects areas to varying degrees. Before we moved out here there was a bad event that we heard about from an orchid grower in Cupertino. Water froze, pipes burst, the freezing temps wiped out their whole inventory in their store and greenhouse. She almost gave up on the business from the losses and repair costs. After moving out here, back in mid-December 2013 another such system came to the area where temps were at or below freezing. Our house was fine as we still had heat but some of our landscaping took a toll as temps from midnight thru sometimes 8-9am stayed below freezing. We are more inland and hit 25F at the lowest. Other areas of the Bay got colder than ours. Our area has been considered Zone 9a and 9b at different times (they re-evaluated a few years back) but there are much colder zones in this part of the State.

 

[Silicon Desert]

I would assume due to the high 90s, 100+ high temps in Texas PWs are not as often placed outside if at all possible as batteries don't like high temps either.

The SF Bay area isn't immune to these polar vortex attacks of very cold extended freezing temps.

Yup agree on all that. Lived there 40 years, and although I remember some very cold days in the winter, I guess I was fortunate enough to not have anything freeze (East bay). I sure would not want to be in Texas right now... a terrible situation that I hope gets better quickly. You know what Mark Twain said.....

 

[SMAlset]

I guess you are thinking about people in Texas or locations when it can get freezing for long periods of time. I agree, but in parts of California, for earthquake reasons, often, pipes are not put into the slab.

SF Bay area here with a slab foundation with reinforced rebar for earthquake purposes. Our first floor kitchen island like other homes in this area all have water pipes running in the slab -- something to think about if you are looking for a home with a sink or dishwasher in the island. We saw the home being built and have long lengths of copper pipe running the length of the house basically all through the attic to the various wall cavities to the various rooms below. We actually had a water leak coming from the slab at our island after a few years of ownership due to a bent line caused during construction. We had just installed new cabinets but not our flooring yet when I was standing in the room with our remodel contractor outside on a phone call and saw water coming from under the island cabinets. Contractor quickly cut off the main supply and then the fun began with the developer and his sub and the City. Newly installed wall cabinets had to be removed so the wall the water lines were in coming from above could be opened up to access the affected lines. Pipes were cut and with some effort pulled out of the wall from the island. The construction kink was observed then and the developer had to eat the cost. Then new piping was pulled through. Any water leaks like this are not fun.

 

[gpez]

Nuclear is best suited to an operational style we no longer need. We don't need a plant to operate at 100% 24/7/365. With wind and solar dirt cheap they'll be able to carry the grid more and more but we'll still need hundreds of GW of dispatch-able capacity on occasion. It costs ~$200M/yr to keep a GW of nuclear operational and ~$20M/yr to keep a GW of gas turbines operational. Nuclear simply makes no sense.

I don't understand this statement. We absolutely still need 24/7/365 base capacity, that's the whole reason why combined cycle NG is so much more cost efficient than NG peaker plants (which the Lazard data shows pretty clearly). US electricity usage is shifting more and more to "off peak" hours because of TOU incentives and EV car charging at night so base load requirements will continue to increase. Solar is not a solution because of the duck curve problem, and both wind and solar are not dispatchable.

You also shifted from pointing at nuclear's steep capex problem (well taken) to comparing nuclear to NG opex but nuclear is significantly cheaper to operate than NG. LCOE already includes amortized capex and even based on the high Lazard estimates nuclear can't be both 10x as expensive to build and 10x as expensive to run but have only a 3x LCOE of NG. In fact operating nuclear is about 1/2 the price of operating NG per GW (Transparent Cost Database | Transparent Cost Database (openei.org), select "Variable Operating Costs"). Remember the capacity factor of nuclear is 30% higher than NG so 1GW nameplate of nuclear running over a year produces the GWh equivalent of 1.3GW nameplate of NG, on average.

 

[Silicon Desert]

SF Bay area here with a slab foundation with reinforced rebar for earthquake purposes. Our first floor kitchen island like other homes in this area all have water pipes running in the slab -- something to think about if you are looking for a home with a sink or dishwasher in the island. We saw the home being built and have long lengths of copper pipe running the length of the house basically all through the attic to the various wall cavities to the various rooms below. We actually had a water leak coming from the slab at our island after a few years of ownership due to a bent line caused during construction. We had just installed new cabinets but not our flooring yet when I was standing in the room with our remodel contractor outside on a phone call and saw water coming from under the island cabinets. Contractor quickly cut off the main supply and then the fun began with the developer and his sub and the City. Newly installed wall cabinets had to be removed so the wall the water lines were in coming from above could be opened up to access the affected lines. Pipes were cut and with some effort pulled out of the wall from the island. The construction kink was observed then and the developer had to eat the cost. Then new piping was pulled through. Any water leaks like this are not fun.

Good info. Thanks. My first home was an Eichler in San Mateo hills. Pipes in the slap. An earthquake cost me a ton of money to cap them off and reroute them. I guess back in the 50s, they were not so good at this stuff.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

My 2 powerwalls without solar lasted 7 hours overnight because I was running regular loads all night and woke up to low batteries. All my neighbors ran out of power at 1 am and cold. Sucks because without rolling blackout, there is no powering up. Oh well, live and learn I guess. We are staying at friends tonight.

Were your Powerwalls able to start back up successfully? After they get low enough to shut down, they should try to start back up via solar every 6 minutes between 8 am and 4 pm.

From Best Practices During Power Outages | Tesla Support:

Running Low on Energy
If Powerwall has less than 10% energy remaining, it will enter a standby state. Powerwall will automatically attempt to recharge from solar for 6 minutes every hour between 8 am and 4 pm local time. If enough solar is available to charge Powerwall, it will remain on. Otherwise, it will wait for the next hour.
​

Our Powerwalls got too low a couple years ago and had problems starting back up. Fortunately, there have been a lot of software updates since then.

You are kind of unique for Texas based on the comments in this forum. Many people from Texas post they the power is so cheap and reliable there is no need for PowerWalls. You must be like me, belt and suspenders!

We aren't seeing too many posts from those users now...

 

[Feathermerchan]

We have weak and expansive soils in parts of Tx. Irving is especially bad. Our slab has cables in it that are pulled tight after the concrete sets up (post tension). The water lines are not run in the slab but under it and then up through it.

In Houston I have seen houses with the copper in the attic esp older houses with no insulation where heating the house meant heating the attic. It rarely gets to 32 degF in Houston and if it does its only for a few hours.

 

[nwdiver]

We absolutely still need 24/7/365 base capacity,

Sure... but not from designated 'base load' plants. That's an invented term. All you need is to have plants that can give you a GW when you need that GW. That can be wind, solar, storage, hydro, demand response... Todays grid is significantly more dynamic than it was 10 years ago and what we need is to make it smarter. The idea of having a larger thermal generator on the grid at 100% 24/7/365 was obsolete 10 years ago.

Wind has already carried 70% of SPP and that's largely because they had to curtail wind since nuclear couldn't cut back any farther. With better generators we would have already hit 100%. There was a time that grid operators thought 15% was impossible while maintaining stability. I have no doubt that within another 10 years there will be entire days that 100% of generation will be wind and solar... albeit with ~100GW of gas turbines ready to throw power into the grid if needed. Then weeks... then months.... That's why low $/MWh is no longer relevant for some generators. Low $/MW is FAR more important. What good is spending $200M per year on a nuclear plant you only use occasionally?