$1500 discount because if tires but hw2.5

[raptor5244]

Thanks raptor. In my case the 19" come with the hw3, and the 18" come with HW2(.5) and a $1500 discount. But i get your point. Thanks

Even better, 19s and HW3, no $1500. Win, Win, Win.

 

[aymelis]

What if in a year comes a HW4 ? They might say HW3 owners with FSD will get the free upgrade. But what about HW2 owners ? Will they get a free upgrade to HW4 too ? I know, no one knows, but there is a risk here, do you agree ?

 

[Knightshade]

Hi all, my first post. I was supposed to have my model 3 long range fwd 18" wheels + FSD delivered next Tuesday. But realized they upgraded me with the 19" wheels for the same price. Sounds sweet, but i saw many videos explaining 19" are noisier, wear faster and less comfortable. Tesla first told me we'r could exchange the wheels in a few weeks but called me back explaining it won't be possible. However they have an inventory car which matches my order exactly, and they make me a $1500 discount. Super exciting ! But it was build in March 2019, so has HW2.5.
1- can we rely on the promise from Elon that all FSD customers will get upgraded to HW3 for free ? Or even if it's true, how long will this take to get the upgrade ? Isn't it better to have HW3 at first place ? Would you take the $1500 discount (i checked the car is perfect)
2- it's an inventory car, 750 miles. Will the IRS consider it new to get the tax credit ?
Thanks !

1- Yes. The CEO of the company has repeatedly stated it would happen- Teslas quarterly results/investor calls have mentioned it would happen multiple times- and the actual FSD purchase page at tesla.com explicitly mentions it will happen. Anybody who still "isn't sure" just isn't paying attention.

Currently HW3 cars aren't any better (worse, arguably, since they've been initially delivered missing some features- Elon mentioned that when they first were rolling out). By the time there's any difference that matters they'll be doing upgrades.


2- Yes, inventory cars are still sold as new (used cars aren't)


I'd take the $1500 discount and the (IMHO) better 18" wheels

What if in a year comes a HW4 ? They might say HW3 owners with FSD will get the free upgrade. But what about HW2 owners ? Will they get a free upgrade to HW4 too ? I know, no one knows, but there is a risk here, do you agree ?

No, there's no risk whatsoever.

If you have FSD and a 2.x car you'll get HW3 for free because it's required for the more advanced FSD features coming later this year.

If Tesla discovers they can't actually deliver those features without HW4- FSD owners would get that free too.

The FSD computer is explicitly designed to be swappable, and it wouldn't make any difference what your "old" computer is as long as it's at least 2.0 (when the began making them easily swappable by design).

 

[MXWing]

The FSD computer is explicitly designed to be swappable, and it wouldn't make any difference what your "old" computer is as long as it's at least 2.0 (when the began making them easily swappable by design).

Two concerns though:

Are the sensors and cameras sufficient? I can’t prove it but I feel they hw 2.5 really does detect far off objects better than hw 2.

Fastest CPU still could be limited by slowest bus, slowest dram or any other component.

Those components do not appear to be easily swappable.

 

[aymelis]

-Yes, inventory cars are still sold as new (used cars aren't)
[...]
No, there's no risk whatsoever.
[...]
If Tesla discovers they can't actually deliver those features without HW4- FSD owners would get that free too.

Thanks Knightshade. Cool for the tax credit. I'm worried that they could redefine what FSD means.

Anyway... bad news... the sales person called me today: the 750 miles car... was not for sale ! Has never been, it was a mistake ! So I asked to be rematched with the 19"/hw3 one. They first told me it might not be available anymore... Fortunately it was, but now $1500 more: they want me to pay for the 19" that i did not order. The sales person understood they committed several mistakes: 1- change my order without asking ( wheel size), 2- associate my account with a car that was not for sale. Problem: the sales person does not have the freedom to put the original $1500 discount back in the system. She will do her best to find out what was the process originally involved, or to match a car that corresponds to my order. Crossing fingers !

 

[Knightshade]

Two concerns though:

Are the sensors and cameras sufficient? I can’t prove it but I feel they hw 2.5 really does detect far off objects better than hw 2.

HW3 cars comes with exactly the same sensors and cameras as HW2.5 cars, and there are no HW2 Model 3s.

That said-for S/X owners- AFAIK the actual cameras in HW2 and HW2.5 cars the same cameras, only the color filters are different...(RCCC vs RCCB) which is why AP/EAP/FSD features have all been the same but there's been some 2 vs 2.5 differences for things like dashcam/sentry....

But the cameras (and ultrasonics) all have the exact same range, resolution, and field of view 2 vs 2.5... so the only thing that should impact range on anything 2 vs 2.5 is the front radar- which does indeed have a whole 10m extra range on 2.5/3 cars. (525 ft vs 558 feet for the non-metric folks)

Fastest CPU still could be limited by slowest bus, slowest dram or any other component.

Those components do not appear to be easily swappable.

...what?

The FSD computer is the whole computer not just the CPU.

 

[MXWing]

..what?

The FSD computer is the whole computer not just the CPU.

I'd like to see an interconnection diagram.

My point is there will be a bottleneck somewhere. Our best hope is that bottleneck was the FSD computer.

With HW3 is that computer now the bottleneck or has it moved to the interconnects?

 

[Knightshade]

I'd like to see an interconnection diagram.

Between the computer and the rest of the car? It's here-

https://electrek.co/2019/01/23/tesla-self-driving-autopilot-hardware-3-0-computer-model-3/

Though the article was originally confused by the second radar connection (it's simply redundant wiring for the one front radar- 2.5 has the same thing already)

If you mean inside the chip there's data out there on that too, but the slowest thing in the package is the LPDDR4 DRAM, which has a bandwidth of 68 gigabytes per second... more than plenty for the amount of data the sensors are capable of producing.

My point is there will be a bottleneck somewhere. Our best hope is that bottleneck was the FSD computer.

In terms of hardware, that's the only place there could be one... there's nowhere near enough data to be saturating anything else.

Tesla claims its latest self-driving chip is 7 times more powerful than its rivals’

I'
With HW3 is that computer now the bottleneck or has it moved to the interconnects?

Not sure why you think there's any bottleneck left?

I mean, "something" is always the slowest part, but when it's faster than it needs to be for the job it's doing it's not really a bottleneck is it?

 

[MXWing]

I mean, "something" is always the slowest part, but when it's faster than it needs to be for the job it's doing it's not really a bottleneck is it?

It’s not a bottleneck until it is. Good systems architecture is trying to anticipate that in advance.

I hope they don’t screw the HW2 owners by not planning for possibility of insufficient hardware.

As a tangent I really wonder how much the FSD computer costs and if Tesla is taking a bath on cars that don’t upgrade.

They executed on a prediction I made that they would force AP just to get some money out of these cars.

To use a PC example, I wish Tesla could have slapped in a Celeron for basic safety and auto steer.

Throw in a Xeon only when the customer pays for FSD.

I recall hw 2.5 being GPU based and 1080Tis were Approx $1000 retail.

 

[mswlogo]

I found this linki

Just found this link about range, interesting.
Tesla Range Table - Teslike.com

Keep in the bulk of the differences are the tires (compound) Tesla chose for each wheel, not the wheels themselves.

You can put more efficient tires on the 19” rims that will equal the Aero/Primacy Efficiency.

Primacy are not the most efficient tires nor the quietest regardless of tire size.

The OEM 19” tire is not an efficient tire, nor a quiet tire, nor a long lasting tire. It it will however, grip on dry or wet better than a Primacy (because that’s what is designed to do).

 

[Knightshade]

It’s not a bottleneck until it is. Good systems architecture is trying to anticipate that in advance.

Which is what they did.

HW3 can handle more data than the sensor suite can provide. (over 2000 frames per second of over for example, which is several times more than the cameras can even capture)

I hope they don’t screw the HW2 owners by not planning for possibility of insufficient hardware.

Not really understanding what you mean here... again other than a very tiny difference in radar range, and different color filters making dashcam/sentry a problem, the HW is the same between 2 and 2.5

As a tangent I really wonder how much the FSD computer costs and if Tesla is taking a bath on cars that don’t upgrade.

They executed on a prediction I made that they would force AP just to get some money out of these cars.

To use a PC example, I wish Tesla could have slapped in a Celeron for basic safety and auto steer.

Throw in a Xeon only when the customer pays for FSD.

IIRC they've stated the per unit cost is actually lower for HW3 than for 2.5.

And if they can actually deliver on even half their FSD promises the take-rate should go way up on FSD... (as it is I'd expect it's already much higher than it used to be since they moved some of the "good" features into FSD by downgrading EAP to just AP)

I recall hw 2.5 being GPU based and 1080Tis were Approx $1000 retail.

But it's not based on a 1080ti so not sure why that's relevant?

It's based on a 1060 as the nearest PC GPC, which was a ton cheaper.... (and didn't need a bunch of additional parts a discrete PC GPU would've needed)

 

[Bill Foster]

Thanks Knightshade. Cool for the tax credit. I'm worried that they could redefine what FSD means.

Anyway... bad news... the sales person called me today: the 750 miles car... was not for sale ! Has never been, it was a mistake ! So I asked to be rematched with the 19"/hw3 one. They first told me it might not be available anymore... Fortunately it was, but now $1500 more: they want me to pay for the 19" that i did not order. The sales person understood they committed several mistakes: 1- change my order without asking ( wheel size), 2- associate my account with a car that was not for sale. Problem: the sales person does not have the freedom to put the original $1500 discount back in the system. She will do her best to find out what was the process originally involved, or to match a car that corresponds to my order. Crossing fingers !

You're shooting yourself in the foot with the HW3 requirement. it will be upgraded when needed, and its not needed now.

 

[aymelis]

You're shooting yourself in the foot with the HW3 requirement. it will be upgraded when needed, and its not needed now.

The problem is that the hw2 car with 18" wheels I've been matched with... is not for sale, and had never been. They committed 2 mistakes:
1- change my order (18" to 19") without asking me.
2- matched me with the demo car (18" and hw2) that was not for sale !
They assigned me back to the 19" car but are now asking me to pay these wheels i did not want. If I decline, I have no car assigned to me anymore and July 1st (tax credit) Is approaching...

 

[Snow Drift]

@aymelis It's RWD, not FWD. Please be aware as that makes a big difference in driving dynamics and winter capability (AZ gets snow too).


750 miles, that might be a demo for test drives and so, not New. They have title. Check Car Fax with the car's VIN. Make sure it is new or else you won't get access to the Federal Credit. The "inventory" cars online only have 3 miles, etc.

 

[aymelis]

@aymelis It's RWD, not FWD. Please be aware as that makes a big difference in driving dynamics and winter capability (AZ gets snow too).

750 miles, that might be a demo for test drives and so, not New. They have title. Check Car Fax with the car's VIN. Make sure it is new or else you won't get access to the Federal Credit. The "inventory" cars online only have 3 miles, etc.

Hey Snow Drift, your pseudo matches your comment . Yes we can have snow in Arizona. The AWD is $4000 more expensive and is heavier, hence a shorter range. It's my first EV so range is important to me .

Good to know for the demo car. Anyways even if i wanted i could not buy it, as is not for sale...

 

[MXWing]

Hey Snow Drift, your pseudo matches your comment . Yes we can have snow in Arizona. The AWD is $4000 more expensive and is heavier, hence a shorter range. It's my first EV so range is important to me .

Good to know for the demo car. Anyways even if i wanted i could not buy it, as is not for sale...

People killing me with misinformation. It can have 10,000 miles on it and be eligible for the tax credit. Being titled or not to an owner is the determinant.

Something which I don’t know if was asked / covered but what’s your holding period for the car? If it’s like five years.. just pay for the AWD.

It’s so much more fun and powerful for a modest range loss in my opinion.

 

[mswlogo]

You're shooting yourself in the foot with the HW3 requirement. it will be upgraded when needed, and its not needed now.

Not everyone is gonna buy FSD.

If I was buying today I would not accept a HW2.5 car, period. We have no idea how or when HW3 will deploy on HW2.5 cars.

It’s likely a year away for many of us.

After the pay $11k later, or $8k now and $5k in March for EAP/FSD stunt I don’t trust this company on what they “say” they will do.

Oh, HW3 is free but it’s $1000 to install it. Something like that would NOT surprise me, at all. I’d be less upset if they did that than what they have already done.

Sorry, but that’s what Elon made some customers feel towards his company.

 

[Knightshade]

Not everyone is gonna buy FSD.

If I was buying today I would not accept a HW2.5 car, period. We have no idea how or when HW3 will deploy on HW2.5 cars.

If you're not buying FSD then HW3 doesn't help you- so why would you not accept a 2.5 car?

It’s likely a year away for many of us.

Nonsense.

FSD features requiring it will be out later this year

We've already run math in other threads based on assumed FSD take rates- you're talking 4-8 weeks to upgrade all S/X owners, and maybe 3 months for Model 3 owners, and that's making some pretty conservative assumptions.

Oh, HW3 is free but it’s $1000 to install it. Something like that would NOT surprise me, at all.

It'd be outright fraud.

I don't mean the "we didn't hit a timeline" type, I mean the "company would be sued out of business type"

Given they have explicitly and publicly stated FSD buyers would be upgraded for free to HW3. Repeatedly, and in writing, including on the actual purchase page for FSD.

This is one of the few areas Tesla has gone way out of its way to be super clear

So again- FUD type nonsense.

 

[aymelis]

People killing me with misinformation. It can have 10,000 miles on it and be eligible for the tax credit. Being titled or not to an owner is the determinant.

Something which I don’t know if was asked / covered but what’s your holding period for the car? If it’s like five years.. just pay for the AWD.

It’s so much more fun and powerful for a modest range loss in my opinion.

The FWD is fun enough for me. I've never been interested in powerful cars, lol.

Not sure what you call a holding period. I'm financing it on 5 years.

 

[MXWing]

Oh, HW3 is free but it’s $1000 to install it. Something like that would NOT surprise me, at all. I’d be less upset if they did that than what they have already done.

I’ll call you out here and now for a charity bet for a $1000 if Tesla charges for a HW3 install for FSD purchasers.

That’s a lot of hubris for something Tesla has reinforced in no uncertain terms that FSD buyers get free upgrade.

The FWD is fun enough for me. I've never been interested in powerful cars, lol.

Not sure what you call a holding period. I'm financing it on 5 years.

I think you’d recapture a lot of the extra premium after five years for AWD. It’s just me but regret is more expensive than the extra cost upfront.