Interesting. Thanks.
Do you foresee a high failure rate of batteries for vehicles say 2016 and newer?
Would be great if the batteries did end up lasting for the entire life of the car.
They didn't really address all of the known issues until maybe 2018. Even then, there's some things impossible to address. So while I suspect the failure rates of the packs will decline with the newer versions, it's probably plateaued, barring any future design screw ups.
Curious why not? Is it due to the larger monolithic module design making them poor/unwieldy choices for second-life projects?
The 3/Y packs are pretty useless as they sit for anything besides an EV conversion... and even then, they're difficult to deal with for most. Instead of 14-16 modules that weigh ~50 lbs each and are 24V (safe to touch anywhere), you instead have four 200+ lb modules that are ~100V (
). They're harder to handle, harder to ship, and harder to do anything useful with. Tons of off the shelf equipment works with 24-48VDC. Next to nothing works with 100V+.
I suspect so. The main issue being that the modules are higher voltage and requires safety equipment/procedures to work with them. The old 24 volt Model S modules were perfect for pairing to 48 volt and using for solar storage. (If I recall correctly anything under 50v is considered low voltage and doesn't require any special handling.)
Per the NEC, for solar and off-grid type setups a battery system below 50V nominal voltage follows a different set of rules than anything higher. In fact, once you break the 50V nominal threshold it gets very cost prohibitive to do anything by the code. Tesla gets around this with the Powerwall/Powerpack because the batteries are configured to never be > 50V nominal. Instead, they use a DC-DC converter to bump the voltage as needed on each "pod"... skirting the code requirements for higher voltage batteries.
Since it's pretty much impossible, for all practical purposes so far or at any real scale, to breakdown the Model 3/Y/Plaid batteries into groups below 50V nominal (would have to be 13s or fewer to qualify), they're not useful for a whole range of applications, lowering their overall secondhand market value. We've been working on different ways to make the Model 3/Y batteries more manageable, but it always ends up being more expensive in the end per kWh than just using S/X modules. Maybe we'll get there eventually, but I suspect the 3/Y/Plaid replacements will continue to be more expensive than original S/X replacements.