Elon mentioned in mid-December that they were "at around 600 a week" production (Teslas Musk speaks out on battery production - CNBC).
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
2014 1 QTR predictions/results
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
Elon mentioned in mid-December that they were "at around 600 a week" production (Teslas Musk speaks out on battery production - CNBC).
Tesla confirms production level approaching 700/wk
1. I reached out to Tesla earlier today (through a contact I have in Investor Relations) for clarification/confirmation regarding the 700 cars/week production number from the Goldman Sachs note this morning. Here's Tesla's reply:
“If one tours our factory - production boards indicate a production level approaching 700/wk.”
2. I also asked for clarification regarding this article (Goldman Sachs Visits With Tesla Management, Updates Each Business Category). The article states, "Tesla has projected it will deliver 6,400 Model S vehicles worldwide in the first quarter but cautioned investors the company will see an impact of “several millions” due to enhancements to the bottom of the car to improve the safety of the battery pack." So, I asked Tesla the following, "Will Tesla see an impact of 'several millions' dollars due to enhancements to the bottom of the car? Will this be realized in Q1 or spread out during the course of the year?"
Tesla’s reply was:
"All accrued (expensed) in q1 - for the fleet."
3. Finally, I asked for clarification regarding the article saying that Tesla is aiming for a "gross margin of 25 percent on the Gen III as opposed to 30 percent for the whole company”.
Tesla replied saying:
“A bit inaccurate in the note - we haven't provided such targets - other than to say g3 at least 20% GM”
- - - Updated - - -
It's not clear the exact amount expensed for the undercarriage reinforcements, but the article said "several millions" of dollars and Tesla did not deny/refute it. Rather, Tesla clarified saying that the all the expenses will be accrued in Q1 for the fleet. So, this does damper Q1 earnings as it needs to absorb this added expense.
On the other hand, we have possible ZEV credit income for Q1 that could offset this added expense.
This doesn't pertain to Q1 but I thought it was worth asking.
1. I reached out to Tesla earlier today (through a contact I have in Investor Relations) for clarification/confirmation regarding the 700 cars/week production number from the Goldman Sachs note this morning. Here's Tesla's reply:
“If one tours our factory - production boards indicate a production level approaching 700/wk.”
2. I also asked for clarification regarding this article (Goldman Sachs Visits With Tesla Management, Updates Each Business Category). The article states, "Tesla has projected it will deliver 6,400 Model S vehicles worldwide in the first quarter but cautioned investors the company will see an impact of “several millions” due to enhancements to the bottom of the car to improve the safety of the battery pack." So, I asked Tesla the following, "Will Tesla see an impact of 'several millions' dollars due to enhancements to the bottom of the car? Will this be realized in Q1 or spread out during the course of the year?"
Tesla’s reply was:
"All accrued (expensed) in q1 - for the fleet."
3. Finally, I asked for clarification regarding the article saying that Tesla is aiming for a "gross margin of 25 percent on the Gen III as opposed to 30 percent for the whole company”.
Tesla replied saying:
“A bit inaccurate in the note - we haven't provided such targets - other than to say g3 at least 20% GM”
- - - Updated - - -
My interpretation of this is that production level hasn't quite reached 700 cars/week yet but is almost there. Perhaps 680-690 cars/week or so.
It's not clear the exact amount expensed for the undercarriage reinforcements, but the article said "several millions" of dollars and Tesla did not deny/refute it. Rather, Tesla clarified saying that the all the expenses will be accrued in Q1 for the fleet. So, this does damper Q1 earnings as it needs to absorb this added expense.
On the other hand, we have possible ZEV credit income for Q1 that could offset this added expense.
This doesn't pertain to Q1 but I thought it was worth asking.
Thanks Dave! That's definitely valuable information.
Several millions is actually lower than I had feared for the battery pack armor enhancements. I was thinking somewhere around $7 million, but several millions indicates a something nearer to $3-5 million. With about 32,000 vehicles to retrofit, that's about $155 per vehicle. Presumably they account for some direct labor cost (as opposed to shop rate), so maybe $110 in parts, $45 in labor.
As for Q4 delivery figures, I thought there was a significant overhang of cars produced in Q3 that were "in flight" and that was one of the reasons for a disappointing Q3 ER, at least relative to our lofty expectations.
Several millions is actually lower than I had feared for the battery pack armor enhancements. I was thinking somewhere around $7 million, but several millions indicates a something nearer to $3-5 million. With about 32,000 vehicles to retrofit, that's about $155 per vehicle. Presumably they account for some direct labor cost (as opposed to shop rate), so maybe $110 in parts, $45 in labor.
As for Q4 delivery figures, I thought there was a significant overhang of cars produced in Q3 that were "in flight" and that was one of the reasons for a disappointing Q3 ER, at least relative to our lofty expectations.
Agree and will be interesting, if true, to see how JP spins another incorrect prediction.
"The cost of retrofitting underbody armor packages on 30,000 existing cars will be accrued as a warranty expense in Q1-14, crushing Tesla’s GAAP and hypothetical earnings"
sahanim
Member
i did consider this. they should have enough data to understand what their demand for the different variation of configurations. Is it possible they have certain basic features assembled and at that point would just need to add the bells and whistles later on?
I understand it is far-fetched but I also find it hard to believe the team has no fail-safes whatsoever.
1,000 cars is a value of $100MM. This would show in Inventory. At the end of Q4 they had $340MM inventory value. It is unlikely that 1/3 of their inventory is finished cars sitting in the warehouse. It is more likely they have a buffer of materials to keep building cars for a several weeks to protect against a supply chain disruption.
Benz
Active Member
My estimates for the deliveries of the Tesla Model S in Q1 2014:
Europe = 3,000
USA = 3,800
Canada = 150
Total = 6,950
Europe = 3,000
USA = 3,800
Canada = 150
Total = 6,950
pz1975
Active Member
I was told directly by a manager at the Vancouver SC that they delivered 18 in the last 3 weeks of March (and that was a large number they were proud of) so your number must be too much.
Benz
Active Member
The figure for Europe is pretty much sure, because of the published monthly registrations numbers.
The total for Europe in Q1 2014 per country:
Norway: 2056
Germany: 239
Netherlands: 207
Switzerland: 133
Denmark: 111
Belgium: 55 (January+February)
France: 58
Austria: 38
Italy: 20
Spain: 8
Sweden: 1 (January)
Total = 2,926
And we still need to know:
Belgium (March)
Sweden (February+March)
Finland
Latvia
etc.
That's why I think that the figure of 3,000 for Europe is pretty much sure.
And I hope that US + Canada is at least 4,000 Tesla Model S deliveries.
Please add more data here when it's published somewhere else.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Here you will find provisional Canadian and U.S. sales figures for the Tesla Model S.
U.S. Source: Automotive News, Tesla quarterly report, subtracting Canadian totals via Matthew Klippenstein
Canadian Source: R.L. Polk via Matthew Klippenstein/GreenCarReports & Tesla
* 3 months U.S. & 2 months Canada
^ unconfirmed estimates, with every reason to believe they're not wildly inaccurate
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/08/tesla-model-s-sales-figures-usa-canada.html
Month | Tesla Model S U.S. Sales 2012 | Tesla Model S U.S. Sales 2013 | Tesla Model S U.S. Sales 2014 | Tesla Model S U.S. Sales 2015 |
January | | 1615 ^ | 2000 ^ | |
February | | 1598 ^ | 2509 ^ | |
March | | 1529 ^ | 1507 ^ | |
April | | 2041 ^ | | |
May | | 1461 ^ | | |
June | | 1464 ^ | | |
July | 84 ^ | 1757 ^ | | |
August | 84 ^ | 1505 ^ | | |
September | 85 ^ | 1071 ^ | | |
October | 400 ^ | 2058 ^ | | |
November | 400 ^ | 1119 ^ | | |
December | 1505 ^ | 977 ^ | |
Month | Tesla Model S Canadian Sales 2012 | Tesla Model S Canadian Sales 2013 | Tesla Model S Canadian Sales 2014 | Tesla Model S Canadian Sales 2015 |
January | --- | 15 | 20 | |
February | --- | 32 | 19 | |
March | --- | 111 | | |
April | --- | 59 | | |
May | --- | 64 | | |
June | --- | 61 | | |
July | --- | 43 | | |
August | --- | 55 | | |
September | --- | 64 | | |
October | --- | 26 | | |
November | --- | 48 | | |
December | 95 | 60 | |
| Year | Tesla Model S U.S. Sales | Tesla Model S Canadian Sales |
2012 | 2558 ^ | 95 |
2013 | 18,195 ^ | 638 |
2014 YTD * | 6016 ^ | 39 |
Canadian Source: R.L. Polk via Matthew Klippenstein/GreenCarReports & Tesla
* 3 months U.S. & 2 months Canada
^ unconfirmed estimates, with every reason to believe they're not wildly inaccurate
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/08/tesla-model-s-sales-figures-usa-canada.html
Benz
Active Member
Thanks RobStark for posting that info.
I am very delighted to see such high numbers for the first three months of 2014 in the US.
But 6,000 + 3,000 = 9,000 for Q1 2014. Could that really be possibe?
By the way, the total for Sweden for Q1 2014 was 33 Tesla Model S deliveries.
That means for the total of Europe: 2,926 - 1 + 33 = 2,958.
Getting closer to the 3,000 mark.
I am very delighted to see such high numbers for the first three months of 2014 in the US.
But 6,000 + 3,000 = 9,000 for Q1 2014. Could that really be possibe?
By the way, the total for Sweden for Q1 2014 was 33 Tesla Model S deliveries.
That means for the total of Europe: 2,926 - 1 + 33 = 2,958.
Getting closer to the 3,000 mark.
I'm trying to figure out, whether there is a bubble in Tesla's stock price. Tesla's market cap is 25B, source http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TSLA
Porsche imo is a quite good comparison, because it is a small premium car sellers and also growing. Porsche's market cap is 24B, source http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PAH3.DE
Porsche sold 38500 cars 1Q2014, source http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=857
Tesla estimates 6400 cars sold 1Q2014, source http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...beat-analyst-estimates-on-model-s-growth.html
So Porche's market cap/cars sold 1Q014 is approximately 600 000$, for Tesla the same figure is 3921875$. So 6 times bigger.
For me there seems to be a bubble.
Porsche imo is a quite good comparison, because it is a small premium car sellers and also growing. Porsche's market cap is 24B, source http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PAH3.DE
Porsche sold 38500 cars 1Q2014, source http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=857
Tesla estimates 6400 cars sold 1Q2014, source http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...beat-analyst-estimates-on-model-s-growth.html
So Porche's market cap/cars sold 1Q014 is approximately 600 000$, for Tesla the same figure is 3921875$. So 6 times bigger.
For me there seems to be a bubble.
Last edited:
Benz
Active Member
Actually, because of the current number of Supercharger stations in the US (84?), it could well be true that more and more people in the US are buying a Tesla Model S, and that the total for Q1 2014 indeed is 6,000 or even a few more than that. From that perspective it actually does make sense (I think).
I was part of the 'VIN counters of Q3' group and it turned out to be a disaster. 2013 Q3 beat guidance but not the whisper numbers that got priced into the stock before Q3ER. Thus, I am skeptical of the '9,000' delivery number. TM seemed to clean out all the show rooms and SCs and 'gamed' 4thQ deliveries a bit. So, they were starting Q1 2014 with very little in the pipeline. If TM started the year at 600/week production and ended the quarter with 700/week, average of 650 with 12 weeks of production leads to max production of 7,800 and impossible to have delivered all those vehicles while refilling the loaner/showrooms as well.
While I would like a blow out of guidance, I would be very happy with a beat of guidance at 7,000 deliveries.
Benz
Active Member
Yes, 7,000 deliveries would be already great indeed. But still, a few hundred more is very well possible, right?
