2014 1 QTR predictions/results

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This is what worries me...Has TM made any progress in the GF since they announced it? If all they report is that they are still working on it...I expect sell off. I don't know if 1 quarter was enough time for Tesla to pick a location and work out details with a partner, which would be the first two things they should have at least have gotten done.

Expect a drop. But if you're a "believer" it could be a time to buy. Panasonic's CEO statement said to me that:
- It'd be a significant investment and they're restructuring, which means they can't do anything too risky.
- They want to see more from Tesla (Can they even use all the volume from the new contract? X? China? Supercharger expansion? Grid storage?)
- Panasonic would want to be sure they'll be able to deliver the cell advances that Tesla needs.

So, if you believe in Tesla and Panasonic, there should be more positive attitudes by the end of the year.

 

[InTheShadows]

If Panasonic is getting cold feet I'm not convinced they will be the GF partner for Tesla. I think another battery manufacture would be willing to step up to the plate. If not then I think Tesla will do it in their own. Elon is building reusable rockets, super awesome electric cars and helping with a hyperloop project in Israel that will go 200+ miles in 7 minutes 7 seconds. I'm pretty sure he can build a battery factory with out an existing battery company's participation.

 

[clmason]

... and helping with a hyperloop project in Israel that will go 200+ miles in 7 minutes 7 seconds...

This was an April Fools Day Joke. Sadly :-(

 

[austinEV]

This was an April Fools Day Joke. Sadly :-(

Ugh, that article violates the iron law of april fool joke articles; it isn't funny. There is no particular reason any of it couldn't be done. Just invented plausible info with a one-liner saying its fake. haha?

 

[Alpha]

How about an All American Gigafactory blow-out? Apple and Google could come to the party. They should double down and raise $10B! Yeah there might be some supply chain challenges, but the investment would pay off.
OK, I was dreaming.. but wouldn't it be cool?

 

[30seconds]

California updated rules to support Grid Storage. Makes the GF way more valuable/ viable

California to Utilities: Connect Battery-Solar Systems to the Grid : Greentech Media

 

[kcveins]

Nobody knows; the last major fall was from ~194 to ~118ish - we haven't seen that kind of drop, but if we go into any kind of larger bear market, I'm sure it could fall a lot farther than even that...

This fall has been from a high of $265 to $185 last week - it looks comparable to me. Not saying that it can't fall any further, but an $80 fall in the last month and a half is still pretty steep..

 

[Matias]

PEG should be below one. So unles Tesla demonstrates less than 100% growth YonY, price will most likely fall.

 

[Lessmog]

PEG should be below one. So unles Tesla demonstrates less than 100% growth YonY, price will most likely fall.

Wut? I'm sorry, don't understand. Are you saying that company growth must be slow in order for the share price not to fall? Why?

 

[Matias]

My bad (English is not my native language), I ment IF YoY growth is below 100%, stock will fall :redface:

 

[Lessmog]

My bad (English is not my native language), I ment IF YoY growth is below 100%, stock will fall :redface:

Ok, I guessed something like that. I see how you mean. Not sure I agree with the exact measure, but the principle makes sense.

 

[AlMc]

I have posted a question to TM investor relations about the amount of ZEV credits they may be sitting on and their current market value. I do not expect a response with exact numbers but I am hoping. Anyone have a feeling for the ZEV credits they have. I think the question has been asked before but not answered. It appears this would be a great quarter to use them as I believe they are taking the entire Kevlar/titanium battery protector write off this quarter and will probably have the smallest beat on deliveries.

 

[JRP3]

Kevlar?

 

[AlMc]

Kevlar?

My bad:wink:

 

[jimmyjohn]

So we're almost within one week of Q1 release... is it safe to assume that we will not hear any Q1 news from Tesla Motors prior to May 7?

 

[Benz]

So we're almost within one week of Q1 release... is it safe to assume that we will not hear any Q1 news from Tesla Motors prior to May 7?

That's right.

 

[Cankooo1]

I have two questions and I will appreciate some details.
What is the current consensus for the Q1 earnings. I have checked several sources:
Tradingview: -0,1$
Yahoo finance : 0,12$
Marketwatch: 0,08$
Estimize: 0,07$
My second question is why Tesla produced more cars in Q3 2013 than Q4 2013?

2013 Q1 produced 5000, guided 4500, sold 4900
2013 Q2 produced 5525, guided 4500, sold 5150
2013 Q3 produced 6825, guided 5000, sold 5500
2013 Q4 produced 6587, guided 6000, sold 6892

 

[AlMc]

Cankooo1: My quick answer to your second question: Q4 has many more 'holidays' than Q3: You have Thanksgiving in November and Christmas/other religious holidays in mid to late December. This is not an analytical answer but a practical one.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I have two questions and I will appreciate some details.
HWhat is the current consensus for the Q1 earnings. I have checked several sources:
Tradingview: -0,1$
Yahoo finance : 0,12$
Marketwatch: 0,08$
Estimize: 0,07$
My second question is why Tesla produced more cars in Q3 2013 than Q4 2013?

You are confusing deliveries with production. They report deliveries (which they count as sales) and have never reported production. Loaner production, cars in transit (particularly Europe and china with long transit times) don't count in deliveries and hence sales.

- - - Updated - - -

You are confusing deliveries with production. They report deliveries (which they count as sales) and have never reported production. Loaner production, cars in transit (particularly Europe and china with long transit times) don't count in deliveries and hence sales.

Also stores that are opened need demo units as well.

 

[uselesslogin]

I have two questions and I will appreciate some details.
What is the current consensus for the Q1 earnings. I have checked several sources:
Tradingview: -0,1$
Yahoo finance : 0,12$
Marketwatch: 0,08$
Estimize: 0,07$
My second question is why Tesla produced more cars in Q3 2013 than Q4 2013?

I think the source of these numbers is Hummingbird's post which was updated in mid-April as follows:

2013 Q1 produced 5000, guided 4500, sold 4900
2013 Q2 produced 5500, guided 4500, sold 5150
2013 Q3 produced 6500, guided 5000, sold 5500
2013 Q4 produced 6587, guided 6000, sold 6892

I have no idea where 6825 came from and I am fairly certain all of these are estimates except for the 2013 Q4 number which was reported in the same shareholder's letter.