FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Wow, nice. This is about the earliest after the quarter that I've seen. Usually it's about another week after this point. They must be speeding up their accounting!
i was was thinking exactly the same.
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2014 Q2 Prediction Thread
- Thread starter hershey101
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i was was thinking exactly the same.
Unfortunately we are not going to get the confirmation.
"Work to reconfigure the production floor at the Fremont, California, facility began today and vehicle assembly resumes Aug. 4 with a goal of boosting production by 25 percent, Simon Sproule, a Tesla spokesman, said in an interview."
Tesla Idles California Plant to Retool for Electric SUVs - Bloomberg
That's good news to confirm the Fremont factory will only be closed for 2 weeks (10 business days) as planned. Also some other informations being hinted in this interview:
[Weekly production at the plant was approaching 800 units ahead of the current project, Sproule said. ]
[Work to reconfigure the production floor at the Fremont,California, facility began today and vehicle assembly resumes Aug. 4 with a goal of boosting production by 25 percent, Simon Sproule, a Tesla spokesman, said in an interview.]
For Q3:
1) There was 2 weeks + 3 days (excluding 7/4 holiday) before factory shut down, say the run rate is closing to 800/week;
2) There will be 8 weeks + 2 days after factory reopen, say the run rate will be closing to 1000/week (up 25%);
So I guess the Q3 guidance for production and delivery will be between 9,500 to 10,000. Is this a good catalyst we are expecting from Q2 shareholder letter? (compared to Q2 guidance, 8500-9000 production and 7500 delivery).
[Weekly production at the plant was approaching 800 units ahead of the current project, Sproule said. ]
[Work to reconfigure the production floor at the Fremont,California, facility began today and vehicle assembly resumes Aug. 4 with a goal of boosting production by 25 percent, Simon Sproule, a Tesla spokesman, said in an interview.]
For Q3:
1) There was 2 weeks + 3 days (excluding 7/4 holiday) before factory shut down, say the run rate is closing to 800/week;
2) There will be 8 weeks + 2 days after factory reopen, say the run rate will be closing to 1000/week (up 25%);
So I guess the Q3 guidance for production and delivery will be between 9,500 to 10,000. Is this a good catalyst we are expecting from Q2 shareholder letter? (compared to Q2 guidance, 8500-9000 production and 7500 delivery).
Here is a summary of Q2 outlook:
Deliveries
There were about 2500 deliveries in Europe (UK estimated 200). In China, there was about 1545 cars imported, however, no one knows how many were actually delivered, but there are probably about 100 or so less deliveries. Canada had 71 registrations in April, and 61 in May, educated guess of 68 for June takes us to 200 deliveries in Canada. This adds up to 4145 deliveries in Europe, China, and Canada, leaving 3355 deliveries for the US (compared with ~3243 last quarter). I doubt Tesla will beat guidance by a significant amount because it would require a large increase in US deliveries over last quarter. The total deliveries will probably be between 7500 and 7600, with 200 cars leased (as guided).
If Tesla doesn't deliver at least 7500 cars, there will be a lot of FUD about how Tesla produced much more than it delivered, and couldn't meet its own guidance, and seeking alpha writers and others will conclude that Tesla now has an inventory, which will not be good news for the stock.
However, if Tesla meets guidance or exceeds it by 100 or so vehicles, I doubt the stock would be affected.
Production
Guidance was 8500-9000 vehicles. The factory supposedly ran at 700 vehicles during the first five weeks and 800 vehicles during the last seven weeks. This takes us to 9100 vehicles produced, which is ahead of guidance.
I'm confident that Tesla met their guidance for production, but I doubt that the production numbers will affect the stock.
Gross Margins
Given that guidance was that gross margins would "increase slightly from Q1 to Q2", and that gross margins were 25.4% in Q1, it is reasonable to assume that gross margins will be in the realm of 26%-26.5%. This would be on track to 28% by the end of the year.
This will likely not affect the stock.
Superchargers
On April 24, Tesla installed its 100th supercharger, and today, almost three months later there are a total of 146 supercharging stations, representing a difference of 46 superchargers. Tesla said in the Q1 letter that they want to build 200 more superchargers by the end of the year, and they have about 6 months to build 150 superchargers. Tesla is likely to say that they are on track to have 300 superchargers installed by the end of the year.
This will likely not affect the stock.
Q3 Guidance
There are 66 business days in Q3, and Tesla is supposedly at 800 cars/week or 160 cars/day. The first 10 business days, Tesla ran at 160 cars/day, and then there will be 10 business days of no production to retool and start the second line, and the last 46 days would run at 200 cars/day or 1000 cars/week due to the 25% increase in production capacity. This means that Tesla will be able to produce 10,800 cars in Q3 in ideal conditions. Guidance will probably be 10,000-10,500 cars for Q3 production. Hopefully, this quarter will not have such a large gap between deliveries and production because Tesla needs to produce 21,000 cars in the second half.
Q3 guidance will be incredibly important for the stock. If Tesla does not guide for at least 10,000 cars produced, the stock will take a hit. If Tesla does not guide for at least 9500 cars delivered, the stock will probably also take a hit. However, if Tesla guides for 10,000 delivered and 10,500 produced, the stock will react well.
Gigafactory
Tesla and Panasonic will be reporting earnings on the same day, and some think it is a coincidence. I think not. Tesla is overdue for an announcement of groundbreaking, as Elon claimed the factory will break ground in June. Perhaps Tesla and Panasonic saved the announcement for the ER. Also, Panasonic has not said how much it will invest in the gigafactory, and they haven't even fully committed yet. There is a lot to say about the gigafactory, with a few overdue announcements, it is highly unlikely that the two largest partners involved in the gigafactory reporting earnings on the same day is coincidence. Something will be said about the gigafactory that day. Either it will be said during both ERs, or both ERs will announce a date/time for a press release about the gigafactory.
Any gigafactory news will move the stock to the tune of 10-20%. If there is no news about a groundbreaking, that means not only did Tesla fail to break ground in June, but also in all of July, and this will probably take the stock back down to the 200 day moving average. If Panasonic does not commit $1B to the gigafactory and commits $200M instead, the stock will also take a hit. However, if Panasonic contributes the full $1B and Tesla announces that they broke ground, the stock will appreciate in value quickly.
The Stock
If Tesla guides for 10,000 deliveries in Q3, announces that Panasonic will contribute a significant amount to the factory, and also announces that they broke ground on the first site, expect the stock to start a rally to the next resistance point of $320. If none of this happens, the stock will go down to the 200 day moving average at $190, and may even dip below it.
Deliveries
There were about 2500 deliveries in Europe (UK estimated 200). In China, there was about 1545 cars imported, however, no one knows how many were actually delivered, but there are probably about 100 or so less deliveries. Canada had 71 registrations in April, and 61 in May, educated guess of 68 for June takes us to 200 deliveries in Canada. This adds up to 4145 deliveries in Europe, China, and Canada, leaving 3355 deliveries for the US (compared with ~3243 last quarter). I doubt Tesla will beat guidance by a significant amount because it would require a large increase in US deliveries over last quarter. The total deliveries will probably be between 7500 and 7600, with 200 cars leased (as guided).
If Tesla doesn't deliver at least 7500 cars, there will be a lot of FUD about how Tesla produced much more than it delivered, and couldn't meet its own guidance, and seeking alpha writers and others will conclude that Tesla now has an inventory, which will not be good news for the stock.
However, if Tesla meets guidance or exceeds it by 100 or so vehicles, I doubt the stock would be affected.
Production
Guidance was 8500-9000 vehicles. The factory supposedly ran at 700 vehicles during the first five weeks and 800 vehicles during the last seven weeks. This takes us to 9100 vehicles produced, which is ahead of guidance.
I'm confident that Tesla met their guidance for production, but I doubt that the production numbers will affect the stock.
Gross Margins
Given that guidance was that gross margins would "increase slightly from Q1 to Q2", and that gross margins were 25.4% in Q1, it is reasonable to assume that gross margins will be in the realm of 26%-26.5%. This would be on track to 28% by the end of the year.
This will likely not affect the stock.
Superchargers
On April 24, Tesla installed its 100th supercharger, and today, almost three months later there are a total of 146 supercharging stations, representing a difference of 46 superchargers. Tesla said in the Q1 letter that they want to build 200 more superchargers by the end of the year, and they have about 6 months to build 150 superchargers. Tesla is likely to say that they are on track to have 300 superchargers installed by the end of the year.
This will likely not affect the stock.
Q3 Guidance
There are 66 business days in Q3, and Tesla is supposedly at 800 cars/week or 160 cars/day. The first 10 business days, Tesla ran at 160 cars/day, and then there will be 10 business days of no production to retool and start the second line, and the last 46 days would run at 200 cars/day or 1000 cars/week due to the 25% increase in production capacity. This means that Tesla will be able to produce 10,800 cars in Q3 in ideal conditions. Guidance will probably be 10,000-10,500 cars for Q3 production. Hopefully, this quarter will not have such a large gap between deliveries and production because Tesla needs to produce 21,000 cars in the second half.
Q3 guidance will be incredibly important for the stock. If Tesla does not guide for at least 10,000 cars produced, the stock will take a hit. If Tesla does not guide for at least 9500 cars delivered, the stock will probably also take a hit. However, if Tesla guides for 10,000 delivered and 10,500 produced, the stock will react well.
Gigafactory
Tesla and Panasonic will be reporting earnings on the same day, and some think it is a coincidence. I think not. Tesla is overdue for an announcement of groundbreaking, as Elon claimed the factory will break ground in June. Perhaps Tesla and Panasonic saved the announcement for the ER. Also, Panasonic has not said how much it will invest in the gigafactory, and they haven't even fully committed yet. There is a lot to say about the gigafactory, with a few overdue announcements, it is highly unlikely that the two largest partners involved in the gigafactory reporting earnings on the same day is coincidence. Something will be said about the gigafactory that day. Either it will be said during both ERs, or both ERs will announce a date/time for a press release about the gigafactory.
Any gigafactory news will move the stock to the tune of 10-20%. If there is no news about a groundbreaking, that means not only did Tesla fail to break ground in June, but also in all of July, and this will probably take the stock back down to the 200 day moving average. If Panasonic does not commit $1B to the gigafactory and commits $200M instead, the stock will also take a hit. However, if Panasonic contributes the full $1B and Tesla announces that they broke ground, the stock will appreciate in value quickly.
The Stock
If Tesla guides for 10,000 deliveries in Q3, announces that Panasonic will contribute a significant amount to the factory, and also announces that they broke ground on the first site, expect the stock to start a rally to the next resistance point of $320. If none of this happens, the stock will go down to the 200 day moving average at $190, and may even dip below it.
RationalOptimist
Member
32no thanks for the very good summary. I do agree with most of it, but a couple of points I see differently,
1. here's how Bloomberg described Sproule's comments
"Work to reconfigure the production floor at the facility in Fremont began yesterday and vehicle assembly will resume in two weeks, with a goal of boosting production by 25 percent, said Simon Sproule, a spokesman for the carmaker. The $100 million upgrade will add 25 robots and modify the factory’s body and general assembly lines, he said."
Tesla Idles California Plant to Retool for Electric SUVs - Bloomberg
I hope this means that starting 8/4 or very near that day Tesla takes production up to 1,000/week, but he did not explicitly say that. The factory shut down may be to accommodate a step in a multi-step process that will get them to 1,000 vehicles per week later in the year.
again, I hope you are right, but consider how these comments from Musk back in February (in answer to Elaine Kwei's question) fit with the alternative I'm suggesting (italics and underlining are mine).
"...it's a little complex because there are many pieces that go into making a Model S. Some of which are production-constrained, and some of which are not. So to get to this sort of the hype, the sort of 1,000-plus production rate, we do need sort of a new final assembly line, which we're in the process of constructing. And then we'll transition the final assembly to that, hopefully, around the end of the third quarter or thereabouts."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2033061-tesla-motors-management-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=2&p=qanda&l=last
2. Production. Yes, we have Sproule apparently saying production had been approaching 800 per week. I've not seen anything saying this has been going on for 7 weeks, more than half the quarter. Was there something on this?
3. Panasonic's participation. They may well announce $200 million, and no matter how it is presented I'm sure we'll see FUD articles. That said, 6 months ago Panasonic already publicly said they like to invest over time in increments when they were discussing their possible involvement in the GF. Depending how clearly this is laid out, it may be a non-issue or even a plus. For example, Panasonic and Tesla may share a plan for a series of Panasonic investments equaling $1-2 billion based on the achievement of some calendar of milestones the two companies arrive at. of course, it it's a $200 million investment now and only vague suggestions of additional investment, I think that would be reasonably seen as disappointing.
4. How the market reacts...while I see the merit in discussing what we think will happen, the market can be very irrational short-term. I don't think we have much precision on those near term moves, sometimes the move is in a counter-intuitive direction. That's why I'm basically buy and hold. If the market gets super-irrational and the stock has a silly selloff I have and will do some short-term buying.
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Is anyone here able to shed some more light on Canadian deliveries? From this thread and others, the consensus seems to be about 200 cars delivered in Q2. I am confused since the last time I visited the Tesla store here in Toronto (1 month ago), I was told by the salespeople there that the Toronto store was the highest selling store in the world outside of California. I was also told that they were selling "several" per day, but they wouldn't go into any more detail than that.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The highest Tesla sales per capita of any US State is Washington and Washington only has two stores.
That is 2 stores for 7M Washingtonians or one store per 3.5M.
And 17 Stores for 38M Californians or one store per 2.23M.
I was at the Vancouver service centre yesterday and there were 16 new cars on the lot. A while ago I was told by staff that they were moving 15+ cars a week through that service centre. Every time I happen to drive by there is at least a dozen new cars there so it seems reasonable.
Benz
Active Member
AustinEV guide to TSLA earnings reports
Big chart for context. The little box scores show the investment return of straight stock (you can infer options performance) over various periods around the ER:
Q1 2014 numbers for example
I added some color commentary that is how I remembered the reports, in a sentence or two. If you think I am missing the big picture let me know what you think.
Big chart for context. The little box scores show the investment return of straight stock (you can infer options performance) over various periods around the ER:
Q1 2014 numbers for example
| -10 lead | -7% | Buy 10 days prior to ER, sell EOB right before ER |
| 21 day | -8% | Buy 10 days prior, sell 10 days after. |
| Week | -13% | Buy Monday morning, Sell Friday afternoon. |
| 2 day | -15% | Buy day of ER, sell day after. |
| +10 trail | 10% | Buy morning after ER, sell after 10 days |
I added some color commentary that is how I remembered the reports, in a sentence or two. If you think I am missing the big picture let me know what you think.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I really hope that there are substantial announcements on the 31st about the Gigafactory regarding Panasonic and the actually location of the facility. Rumors and sleuthing are fun, but at some point there needs to be some official word.
I will say though that Tim Cook and Apple could learn a thing or 2 from Tesla about doubling down on secrecy.
perhaps- although the challenge of preserving secrecy between the 2 is not even in the same universe.
I feel like the analysts forgot that there will be 200 leased vehicles in this quarter and made revenue estimates based on 7500 vehicles instead of 7300, since 200 will be leased. Also, as usual, I do not expect any profits on a GAAP basis and negligible profits on a Non-GAAP basis. On the other hand however, analysts are cautious about Q3, perhaps too cautious. The quarter will have 64 workdays, of which the first 10 will be producing at 160/day, the next 10 will be producing at 0/day, and the last 44 should be producing at 200/day because of 25% increase in production. This would yield 10,400 cars produced. I am expecting guidance for 10,000, and I'm also hoping that there will not be too much pipeline expansion.
Too see how much the results from your different strategies vary between the quarters,
I compiled your numbers from the big chart and calculated arithmetic means and their standard errors:
So I guess every quarter is pretty much different so far,
no way to make a good strategy up from this data, only:
all averages are positive, so no matter what timing, on
average you can expect to make money (unless you short
of course
).Right, and most of the action is outside of the little boxes (between earnings announcements). I also don't see any insight or plan emerging. I made this because I started to realize the different earnings announcements were starting to blur together. This is an easy reference to remember each event.
If you WERE to try to make some overall assessment, it is that you should buy-and-hold. Also, with the possible exception of Q1 2013, the ER's don't have lasting effects. You can see that they tend to ride the medium term trend and just form a "glitch" that quickly resumes to the medium term trend. (the last one was a little different in that it looks like the ER itself punched the prices down to the 200day which then signaled the end of that trend. So it that case it sort of changed the direction of the stock-- it went down so much it caused an uptrend thereafter)
If you WERE to try to make some overall assessment, it is that you should buy-and-hold. Also, with the possible exception of Q1 2013, the ER's don't have lasting effects. You can see that they tend to ride the medium term trend and just form a "glitch" that quickly resumes to the medium term trend. (the last one was a little different in that it looks like the ER itself punched the prices down to the 200day which then signaled the end of that trend. So it that case it sort of changed the direction of the stock-- it went down so much it caused an uptrend thereafter)
Benz
Active Member
The total amount for deposits was on March 31st, 2014: $198M+.
How much will it be on June 30th, 2014?
Less than $220M?
Or is more than $220M more likely?
How much will it be on June 30th, 2014?
Less than $220M?
Or is more than $220M more likely?
that's probably the most overlooked number on Tesla ERs by the media. Even though they have been ramping deliveries impressively, their deposit figure keeps growing and growing. Yes you have to take out sig Model Xes from that, but is still the best indicator of growing demand.
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