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Yes, but Elon was always saying how it will not be like any other car that you have seen. So it would be basic, but perhaps be a strange shape and not look like any other car.
Now it won't be that different. Perhaps Tesla decided to get a more affordable electric car out there faster rather than trying to be really adventuresome.
I'll credit GM's announcement of the Bolt for the change in strategy. Tesla needs to deliver a Model 3 contemporaneous with the Bolt, a Model 3 that will make the Bolt look ridiculous and establish Tesla's dominance in the EV space. If the Bolt hits the streets a year ahead of the Model 3, Tesla will be in catch-up mode, rather than leading.
I disagree with that.
For Model S, we knew the average wait time is 3 months and they produce 1k cars per week... so that's roughly 12k cars - or so we thought.
For Model X we were doing some voodoo and came up with 24k cars.
Both of these assumptions were based on calculations, partial information, pure logic and some user posts on reservations. So I think the actual data we know now only reaffirms the excellent work that people did on these threads. No one expected these figures to be dead on, if anything I am shocked on how accurate TMC was.
For Model 3, think the idea is the first version out will be basic so they can deliver on the promised price point (would be an enormous long-term pr hit to miss that). Also, to achieve maximize efficiencies for production ramp up, and hit the largest segment of demand first. Must be in line with their expectations of GF output, and their calculus of Bolt likelihood.
My favorite parts were the "bs" comment, and the "would love to figure out how to be less stupid about this in the future". The contrast in the execs' barely contained excitement, and their slightly casual language, to my former Fortune 50 employer's excruciatingly scripted and stolid delivery amazes me.
in the course of a few weeks, the company vision has been revolutionized with the clear and simple targets of "millions of cars within 10 years" and "market value of current Apple" (=25x). WOW!
My favorite parts were the "bs" comment, and the "would love to figure out how to be less stupid about this in the future". The contrast in the execs' barely contained excitement, and their slightly casual language, to my former Fortune 50 employer's excruciatingly scripted and stolid delivery amazes me.
in the course of a few weeks, the company vision has been revolutionized with the clear and simple targets of "millions of cars within 10 years" and "market value of current Apple" (=25x). WOW!
I get the logic, but I think it's ridiculous that the media is so PRO GM. The Bolt was a bloody concept car that used TESLA'S concepts (battery pack on the floor, larger touch screen). We have something tangible and a starting point and people continue to ignore this.
Krugerrand
Meow
Runarbt
Active Member
+1
I have had dreams the past year of tesla reaching the mcap of apple, when they mature and dominate the car world.
Hearing Elon thinking the same was a WOW moment. :-D
I was planning to exit my stock position soon, which I have been holding since $32.. now not so much.
When my wildest dreams for the stock might become a reality in 10years or so.. I am sticking with it. up or down, whichever way the stock goes until we see where Elon leads us. ;-)
Me who thought the run from 32$->292$ was a once in a life time experience! If we can do $200 - $4000-5000 in the next 10 years, that will be an experience I definitively do _not_ want to miss. :-D If I have to, I might even consider selling my Model S, just to keep my stocks. ;-)
Krugerrand
Meow
It could very well be that the possibility of the Bolt has solidified the direction Tesla is going in with the Model 3, but I'm not convinced the Bolt coming out first puts Tesla behind. That is not until the Bolt can actually go 200 miles on a single charge, have performance better than 0-60 in a half day, handles well with a low center of gravity, fast charges, grabs the eye in a good way, has a huge touch pad screen that controls everything in the car, has OTA updates FOR FREE on a regular basis that updates the car, within the stated price range etc., etc.... Only after GM achieves all that and then some - like FULL auto pilot - and puts it out before Tesla would I ever consider Tesla in catch up mode. I'd say the chances of that happening are less than zero.
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Can anyone explain to me how they plan to spend $1.5 billion in capital expenditures this year while losing money on operations? It sounds like they will spend the cash all the way down but then start making up for it starting Q1 2015. That is a very aggressive plan and I suppose I should expect no less but it scares me. I hope they sandbagged that guidance big time though because by my models they need 60,000 deliveries just to break even on operations. Even that means they will exit the year with $400 million in cash. If the X is in full swing in Q1 2015 they will start to actually have cash flow to meet capital expenditures so I see where the plan is but it looks scary to me.
After this report 2015 looks like a very tough year to me. However, if they execute they aren't lying about strong positive cash flow in 2016.
After this report 2015 looks like a very tough year to me. However, if they execute they aren't lying about strong positive cash flow in 2016.
Opportunities for regular investors to "ride the tail of a comet" don't come along that often. Congrats on getting in so early! If you are relatively young with x years of stable income ahead, I would encourage you to roll the dice on TSLA and stay with it with a meaningful stake. I'm considering a 50% increase in my long position today (don't understand options and LEAPS well enough to play in those).
Edit: purchased ~10:16am @ $198.18 (cost basis now <$230 in non-taxable account.....#latebloomer).
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Gerasimental
Member
Your model isn't accounting for revenue from home storage sales. I'm very curious about the scope and scale of this. Might it be worth a new thread to speculate on / try to predict the impact of stationary storage sales?
For example:
-Unit cost
-Volume
-Margins
-Sales model
Good point. The thing is I feel like they have a great product and I would prefer them to take a slower approach because why mess with a sure thing? Elon's prorities are different. I'm most encouraged by Model 3 being fall of 2017 and less adventurous. That makes me feel better. But if they miss this years guidance they will have to raise some amount of money. By all measures though it does look like conservative guidance.
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Krugerrand
Meow
This. Total unknown with HUGE potential and coming online way sooner than I expected.
As far as cash goes, they pretty much stated that they will start using a financing facility that will give them cash for leased cars. So they will start borrowing money. Also they said cash from operations should start in Q4. But yes, the first 2 or 3 questions on the conference call were essentially about Tesla's alarming cash deterioration. And then in answer to one of those Qs, Elon says something like our capital expenses will be enormous.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
And for those who think such things are impossible, recall that Apple's market cap in 2006 was $60 B; eight years later, we're at $728 B. Elon's giving himself an extra two years....
flankspeed8
Member
But AAPL at $700 billion in market cap is generating about $40 billion in profits. I am all for Tesla (waiting to get in about $180) but if we walk away from all they hype and look at the numbers do we really believe that Tesla is going to be worth this in 10 years? Lots of unknown competition down the pike.
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