2014 Q4 Earnings Report and Conference Call

[chickensevil]

They won't have the specifics of the landing right away. The best they get is telemetry until well after the landing is done. This is because you can't have camera feeds and such that transmit live because they are too far off-shore and below the horizon. This is why they reported during the last one that the rocket was "lost" below the horizon. This is also why it took a good while after the landing for Elon Musk to tweet the results and it took until the next day to get video back to look at. So no, don't expect Musk to bail on Tesla.

 

[uselesslogin]

They won't have the specifics of the landing right away. The best they get is telemetry until well after the landing is done. This is because you can't have camera feeds and such that transmit live because they are too far off-shore and below the horizon. This is why they reported during the last one that the rocket was "lost" below the horizon. This is also why it took a good while after the landing for Elon Musk to tweet the results and it took until the next day to get video back to look at. So no, don't expect Musk to bail on Tesla.

Huh?
Elon Musk on Twitter:
Elon Musk on Twitter:

20 minutes between "launching 1 minute" and "no cigar this time."

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What can I say though I would certainly be 80% SpaceX 20% TSLA if that were an option. Or maybe no TSLA at all. I just can't see anything Tesla being more important but I do see how relationships with Wall Street would be important especially because at some point SpaceX does plan to IPO. Granted, only after a Mars colony is started they say so we'll see.

 

[chickensevil]

Right, the landing happened at around the 9 minute mark...

From the feed we had these markers:

• [T + 8:30] Stage 1 trans-sonic
• [T + 6:55] Stage 1 entry burn performed!!
• [T + 5:20] Stage 1 boostback shutdown

And from the AMA Musk said it would happen around the 9 minute mark.

And if you look at the other released rocket feeds of stage 1 it has been determined based on the timestamps to happen between the 9-11 minute mark.

Which means... it took Musk (for whatever reason) anywhere from 9-11 minutes to type 140 characters or less that the landing was a failure. This is again, because all they have to work with is the last telemetry data until the barge crew gets to the droneship to assess the success/failure. No proper signal is transmitted back to base because of it being below the horizon. At best they would get a phone call (through sat phone) on the success/failure/current status from the barge crew as they work to clamp down the rocket and work to make their way back. And video? That ain't happening until 2 days later when the ship will return to shore. So yeah... not much to be had at 6PM during the middle of the CC. With the launch happening around 6:05 at best I would expect there to be useful information at 6:25 to be had at which time they could just cut the call short or it can wait 5 more minutes until they finish. There is nothing to be had by missing the conference call unless he is going to be out on the ocean as it comes in... which would serve absolutely no purpose other than to say he was there.

 

[maoing]

UBS analyst Colin Langan forecast . This could explain why we saw intra-day strength about 30 minutes ago.

Langan forecasted that Tesla Motors Inc TSLA 0.56% will report Q4 EPS of $0.34, above consensus of $0.31. The Q4 outlook was based on 33,000 FY14 deliveries. UBS also forecasted 62,000 deliveries in 2015 and 13,000 in the first quarter of 2015 with a gross margin of 25 percent.
“We'd expect the stock to react favorably if guidance for sales and margin are consistent with our estimates, particularly with the stock down >10 percent since mid-November,” according to Langan.

 

[uselesslogin]

With the launch happening around 6:05 at best I would expect there to be useful information at 6:25 to be had at which time they could just cut the call short or it can wait 5 more minutes until they finish. There is nothing to be had by missing the conference call unless he is going to be out on the ocean as it comes in... which would serve absolutely no purpose other than to say he was there.

OK valid point it won't be cutting it that short and he can go down and congratulate everyone. I'm sure he will at the very least do the CC from Hawthorne though.

 

[Zzzz...]

Sure SpaceX streamed live feed from cameras on ASDS last time Reddit SpaceX fans figured out exact moment when NasaTV showed launch control center, judged reaction of SpaceX crowd who watched landing live and here is the Reddit thread discussing mission controller reaction versus Elon one(with video attached):

Compare Elon's reaction to the crash with a mission controller's reaction. : spacex

ASDS being over the horizon, well, you know, there is a satellite internet on yachts and on airliners...

Bottom line: EM will be distracted during CC. But he will do CC. One option - he might stay for first 35 minutes or so, and rest of the call would be handled by Deepack and JB and whoever. But I have little doubt that EM would be there and CC would not be postponed.

 

[heosat]

I had thrown together an initial spreadsheet of each country, their 2014 sales, and then their stores, service centers, and supercharger counts for Europe. I took the time to expand that based on the rough estimates made here and elsewhere on the sales breakdowns for the other parts of the world. For China, because of the way Tesla has it listed on their website "Find Us" page, Hong Kong got thrown in with China.

Finally the "effectiveness" column (which is what really spawned me to do this in the first place) was just a simple division of Tesla "exposure" to the country versus their number of sales. So 17 would mean that per 1 piece of Tesla presence they are generating 17 sales a year. Some countries are more favorable to EVs with incentives which skews their numbers higher, I have no good way of measuring that impact. I also mentioned it in the EU outlook thread that it might be better to weight say a store with a value of 3, a service center a value of 2, and a supercharger with a value of 1 or .5 to get a better feeling for how effective/non-effective Tesla is for a region/country/whatever. But I thought it was an interesting concept and worth sharing.

If we can come up with a good weighting system for sales vs exposure it might help with calculating the future effectiveness of other Models in the region, and at what point a region might turn a profit for Tesla. For example the Model 3 would probably come in at a 3:1 ratio easily compared to the Model S.

So without further ado, here is the sheet:

View attachment 71305

PS: I threw this here since it was no longer fitting for the EU thread, but don't know if maybe this discussion would be better suited in a different thread once this moves beyond the Q4 and or 2014 discussion.

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And looking over the chart... there must be an error on the number of Superchargers... so I appologise for that. It is probably an issue with how I got the country data from the Find Us page... that or there are about 10 more locations that have come online that isn't reported on the Supercharger page or the third party site Supercharge.info

Are you counting deliveries as sales? If so, the Australian sales are too high. 30 cars were delivered at most, possibly less.

 

[30seconds]

Sure SpaceX streamed live feed from cameras on ASDS last time Reddit SpaceX fans figured out exact moment when NasaTV showed launch control center, judged reaction of SpaceX crowd who watched landing live and here is the Reddit thread discussing mission controller reaction versus Elon one(with video attached):

Compare Elon's reaction to the crash with a mission controller's reaction. : spacex

ASDS being over the horizon, well, you know, there is a satellite internet on yachts and on airliners...

Bottom line: EM will be distracted during CC. But he will do CC. One option - he might stay for first 35 minutes or so, and rest of the call would be handled by Deepack and JB and whoever. But I have little doubt that EM would be there and CC would not be postponed.

Moving a quarterly call an hour later isn't an issue. He could also do his part from wherever he is at.

 

[Zzzz...]

Moving a quarterly call an hour later isn't an issue.

Not an issue for whom? For every person who scheduled his time weeks in advance and are relying on that schedule? To move such call to accomodate some billionaire funky and unrelated interest would be at the very least the most unrespectful thing most saw in their carriers. Most self respecting professionals at least will take notice. And many would ignore the idiot. Remember call already scheduled at 5:30pm - but it is fine because such things come with profession. But to expect people to wait another "after"hour - for what? Sure some will bite the insult. But their opinion about such moron(we could all agree about this classification at least, correct?) will be forever changed.

Tesla will be much better off doing this particular call without EM, then trying to screw up family/real life plans of hundreds of professionals who have happens to get even bare minimum amount of self respect.

PS. Sure I'm not talking about fans/people without schedule and others of such sort - they are irrelevant in this case.

 

[uselesslogin]

To move such call to accomodate some billionaire funky and unrelated interest would be at the very least the most unrespectful thing most saw in their careers.

??? For the record I understand your main point as far as not moving the call but billionaire funky and unrelated interest? Perhaps you are unaware that the company was recently valued at $12 billion and Elon has a majority stake in it unlike Tesla. He has made it clear Tesla plays second fiddle for that matter by preparing us for stepping down from the CEO position once Tesla is around the 500,000 vehicle mark. So, if anything, Tesla is this billionaire's funky and unrelated interest. I'll just assume this is something you may have missed since SpaceX is not as much in the public eye.

--edit--
Huh, nevermind looks like you are quite aware of SpaceX after reading previous posts. Now I am just confused.

 

[sundaymorning]

Not an issue for whom? For every person who scheduled his time weeks in advance and are relying on that schedule? To move such call to accomodate some billionaire funky and unrelated interest would be at the very least the most unrespectful thing most saw in their carriers. Most self respecting professionals at least will take notice. And many would ignore the idiot. Remember call already scheduled at 5:30pm - but it is fine because such things come with profession. But to expect people to wait another "after"hour - for what? Sure some will bite the insult. But their opinion about such moron(we could all agree about this classification at least, correct?) will be forever changed.

Tesla will be much better off doing this particular call without EM, then trying to screw up family/real life plans of hundreds of professionals who have happens to get even bare minimum amount of self respect.

PS. Sure I'm not talking about fans/people without schedule and others of such sort - they are irrelevant in this case.

I think you are blowing this out of proportion and your comments are quite outrageous. As shareholders, we voted Elon as CEO, we realize his schedule and interest in SpaceX. Although SpaceX is a different entity than Tesla, his success in SpaceX has benefitted Tesla in ways I'm sure an engineer can only explain (use your imagination). If you feel "disrespected" you can always use your shares to vote him out, I for one will use my shares to counter yours. You may disagree with my logic, but there isn't another person I know of, that is more capable of running Tesla. As an investor with a keen eye on technology, SpaceX's success can only benefit Tesla in ways a marketing genius can wish for. Every news outlet that talks about SpaceX and Elon will undoubted bring Tesla into the conversation, this isn't to be taken lightly. If you feel you can't get past the "disrespectfulness," perhaps you are not thinking outside the box. Additionally, I think your logic of this CC being "better without Elon's" presence might be mired by you perceiving that he's personally disrespected you and other professionals. My schedule is as hectic as anyone here, I have a full time professional job and my vote is to sit, wait the 30 friggin meaningless minutes, and hear from the man himself! No way am I taking anyone else's words on my investments other than the CEO directly. If you are not contributing to the CC by personally calling in, you can always catch the recorded version of CC on Tesla's website.

 

[AlMc]

Anyone else see this? Could be an interesting (positive catalyst) thing to explore on the ER CC: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2015/02/133_173217.html

Samsung supplying TM with batteries.......




A day late and a dollar short: I see Rob started a thread on it:The Korea Times

 

[Zzzz...]

If you feel "disrespected" you can always use your shares to vote him out, I for one will use my shares to counter yours.

I was replying to comment that suggested that it "isn't an issue" to move CC one hour later. It is. It would be huge mistake and in my opinion neither Elon himself would suggest it, nor any of his managing team. Not going to happen. In worst case scenario EM just won't be present, but call would be there. In offchance if CC will be postponed(which is not unheard of), it would be rescheduled for an appropriate/excusable reason, but not because someone(EM) had to watch rocket landing real time or something like that.

 

[Causalien]

I was replying to comment that suggested that it "isn't an issue" to move CC one hour later. It is. It would be huge mistake and in my opinion neither Elon himself would suggest it, nor any of his managing team. Not going to happen. In worst case scenario EM just won't be present, but call would be there. In offchance if CC will be postponed(which is not unheard of), it would be rescheduled for an appropriate/excusable reason, but not because someone(EM) had to watch rocket landing real time or something like that.

The person who does the scheduling should be fired if it ever occur. The person who does that understands it very well. It is not something worth thinking about or debating over. Look at the curren delay, it's rescheduled to the day before earnings. Plus Elon can just join the earnings cc with analysts remotely if needed. it's not like we are doing the normal cc where everyone sticks around while the CEO reads the financial results from a paper.

 

[jhm]

Actually, I would prefer the ER and CC to be in the middle of the trading day. This gives the market an opportunity to react while volume is high. I really dislike how shorts try to highjack the price in AH trading just as ER is released.

 

[jhm]

3 Reasons Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Will Crush Earnings
Finally somebody gets it.

 

[AudubonB]

Uh...class?

CLASS?

CLASS!!!!!!

Thank you.

Someone makes some completely unsupported remark and half of this forum starts tearing each others' hair out over an eventuality that exists solely within this fourm.

Settle down now and wait for Wednesday.

And certain of you - you know who you are - can stay on after hours to clean the erasers.

 

[sundaymorning]

I was replying to comment that suggested that it "isn't an issue" to move CC one hour later. It is. It would be huge mistake and in my opinion neither Elon himself would suggest it, nor any of his managing team. Not going to happen. In worst case scenario EM just won't be present, but call would be there. In offchance if CC will be postponed(which is not unheard of), it would be rescheduled for an appropriate/excusable reason, but not because someone(EM) had to watch rocket landing real time or something like that.

Ah that makes a lot more sense. I was under the impression that Elon already requested a 30 minute delay, and some are calling for his head; my mistake. Although Elon did not do this, but had he requested a 30 minute delay, I personally would not throw a fuss over it. If he sticks his landing Wednesday, we all reap the benefit of his exposure. It's not like he's requesting a 30 minute delay to spend time with his family nor is the man deliberately screwing us, he is genuinely concern about his ventures, and without that characteristic, Tesla would not have made it this far. He was willing to bleed his entire reserve to buy a dying company an extra month of operation, and that's why we're here, in comparison, our 30 minutes is meaningless in the scheme of what he's brought to the table. Although I prefer for him to be on time, if you're reading this Elon, take the 30 minutes if necessary.

 

[chickensevil]

Actually, I would prefer the ER and CC to be in the middle of the trading day. This gives the market an opportunity to react while volume is high. I really dislike how shorts try to highjack the price in AH trading just as ER is released.

I thought it was industry standard to trade before or after hours. Who reports i n the middle of the trading day? I wouldn't want that since you want people to have time to digest the information. I would prefer it happen after the closing after hours tradinging just so NOTHING can be traded... But that is a pipe dream.

 

[30seconds]

I was replying to comment that suggested that it "isn't an issue" to move CC one hour later. It is. It would be huge mistake and in my opinion neither Elon himself would suggest it, nor any of his managing team. Not going to happen. In worst case scenario EM just won't be present, but call would be there. In offchance if CC will be postponed(which is not unheard of), it would be rescheduled for an appropriate/excusable reason, but not because someone(EM) had to watch rocket landing real time or something like that.

Elon has been abundantly clear that there are two companies at which he is the CEO. Like a previous poster said - the conflict isn't because he is sipping a margarita somewhere - it's because he may need to manage a crucial step is changing the economics of the entire industry of space exploration.

The call is after market hours. Needless to say this wouldn't be the first (or last) quarterly call from a public company that would be delayed and I do not see it as a major issue. Of course they could do it without him, but I would rather have him on the call as his discussions and answers to questions have been very illuminating with respect to the many issues at the comapny.