2014 Q4 Earnings Report and Conference Call

[chickensevil]

Can we just get off this needless speculation when the launch isn't even presently scheduled for Wed nor has there even been a hint they would shift one schedule or the other? I think we all get it that it would suck for him to have to make a call of one company or the other... For now, we don't need to worry about that.

And yes I realize I contributed to this conversation and for that I am sorry... Because you guys have really been going after each other over something that isn't even on the radar of happening right now. We have higher odds of a successful barge landing at this point than having Elon be called away.

 

[sundaymorning]

I thought it was industry standard to trade before or after hours. Who reports i n the middle of the trading day? I wouldn't want that since you want people to have time to digest the information. I would prefer it happen after the closing after hours tradinging just so NOTHING can be traded... But that is a pipe dream.

Your post reminds me of a time when Elon made everyone listen in on a 5AM CC, he sounded half awake and despite the tiny bits of underlying good news, the market sold off. Yep, that's the way the market goes, unpredictable.. but it was good times, immediately following the CC members on this forum got to work, crunching numbers and analyzing the Gospel, people blogged it out, despite it being early. I miss those days, we had some very dedicated members eager to make a "Teslanaire" out of themselves and they worked diligently, countering FUD with equal intensity and endless paragraphs wherever they encounter the opposition, especially on Seeking Alpha; their intensity would soon payoff...

Fast forward to the present and breeds of investors have changed quite a bit. I believe the success that some old timers have had with Tesla has rendered them lazy, soft or careless; of course I don't blame them because they likely would rather enjoy their profits as appose to scour through endless threads on this forum. With success comes apathy, and a certain level of carelessness creeps in. I know this was somewhat true in my case, I use to go on seeking Alpha to repudiate people like John Peterson, nowadays, I just chill and let others do the dirty work. This may be counter productive as upcoming shorts bring intensity to the game, they have more to lose and more to gain from FUD, so they fight for their life, no matter how ridiculous their argument, they always put up a fight. This is contrary to the present attitude on this forum, some even suggest we don't click on seeking alpha because of bait, but I think it's important that whatever side of the trade you are on, to bring a fight and educate the mass. Not all investors are logical and confident in their evaluation like we are. Many newbies rely on seeking alpha and get chased off by fear. I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on this CC, but I wouldn't be completely out of a QR play either, just because the Tesla train is unpredictable.. which ever side you are on, I am suggesting you hedge in case it runs away or dips for an opportune purchase.

 

[maoing]

Well said Sunday! TSLA is not in mania phase now. Personally I bet the farm for Q1/Q2/Q3 ERs, but I have to hedge for this ER. Good luck for everyone!

Your post reminds me of a time when Elon made everyone listen in on a 5AM CC, he sounded half awake and despite the tiny bits of underlying good news, the market sold off. Yep, that's the way the market goes, unpredictable.. but it was good times, immediately following the CC members on this forum got to work, crunching numbers and analyzing the Gospel, people blogged it out, despite it being early. I miss those days, we had some very dedicated members eager to make a "Teslanaire" out of themselves and they worked diligently, countering FUD with equal intensity and endless paragraphs wherever they encounter the opposition, especially on Seeking Alpha; their intensity would soon payoff...

Fast forward to the present and breeds of investors have changed quite a bit. I believe the success that some old timers have had with Tesla has rendered them lazy, soft or careless; of course I don't blame them because they likely would rather enjoy their profits as appose to scour through endless threads on this forum. With success comes apathy, and a certain level of carelessness creeps in. I know this was somewhat true in my case, I use to go on seeking Alpha to repudiate people like John Peterson, nowadays, I just chill and let others do the dirty work. This may be counter productive as upcoming shorts bring intensity to the game, they have more to lose and more to gain from FUD, so they fight for their life, no matter how ridiculous their argument, they always put up a fight. This is contrary to the present attitude on this forum, some even suggest we don't click on seeking alpha because of bait, but I think it's important that whatever side of the trade you are on, to bring a fight and educate the mass. Not all investors are logical and confident in their evaluation like we are. Many newbies rely on seeking alpha and get chased off by fear. I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on this CC, but I wouldn't be completely out of a QR play either, just because the Tesla train is unpredictable.. which ever side you are on, I am suggesting you hedge in case it runs away or dips for an opportune purchase.

 

[sundaymorning]

Well said Sunday! TSLA is not in mania phase now. Personally I bet the farm for Q1/Q2/Q3 ERs, but I have to hedge for this ER. Good luck for everyone!

Just for the record Maoing, I'm 90% in, with 10% cash on hand. Usually I'm 100% in. But of course my risk tolerance is ultra high and I only play long term so my risk visibility is ultra low. Having the opportunity to visit spaceX and spoken with George Blankemship in person somewhat impacted my trading strategy as it made me a bit bolder. Despite the pullback, 2014 was a great year, hopefully 2015 will be even better. Looking forward to reaping many More years of profits and sharing debates with you and others on this forum. May the longs thrive...

 

[Benz]

Which info are we the most looking forward to during the Conference Call on Wednesday (or in the Shareholder Letter)?

- Delivery numbers in 2014;
- Guidence delivery numbers in 2015;
- News regarding Tesla Model X reveal date;
- News regarding progress Gigafactory;
- News regarding upgrade of the Tesla factory in Fremont;
- News regarding growth/expansion plans in 2015 (more factories, more Supercharger stations, more geographical expansion);
- balance of the reservation deposits account;
- news regarding the Tesla Model 3;

What else are we looking forward to?

OK, let's get back on topic now.

I think that the guidence for delivery numbers in 2015 will be 50,000 Tesla Model S deliveries and 10,000 Tesla Model X deliveries.

Anybody who "dares" to have a different opinion?

 

[schonelucht]

Yes, I don't think they will change their guidance significantly from the last shareholder letter with deliveries at 50 000 (excluding CPO) in 2015.

 

[Benz]

Yes, I don't think they will change their guidance significantly from the last shareholder letter with deliveries at 50 000 (excluding CPO) in 2015.

Yes, they mentioned the "50% increase" in the last shareholder letter.

Though I must say that I do expect them to revise their guidence for the annual total of the delivery numbers in 2015 in the following quarterly shareholder letters in 2015. In August (ER Q2 2015) they might already mention an annual total Tesla Model S delivery number in 2015 of 55,000 (10% more than their original guidence of 50,000). That scenario would be great, I think.

 

[Auzie]

Your post reminds me of a time when Elon made everyone listen in on a 5AM CC, he sounded half awake and despite the tiny bits of underlying good news, the market sold off. Yep, that's the way the market goes, unpredictable.. but it was good times, immediately following the CC members on this forum got to work, crunching numbers and analyzing the Gospel, people blogged it out, despite it being early. I miss those days, we had some very dedicated members eager to make a "Teslanaire" out of themselves and they worked diligently, countering FUD with equal intensity and endless paragraphs wherever they encounter the opposition, especially on Seeking Alpha; their intensity would soon payoff...

Fast forward to the present and breeds of investors have changed quite a bit. I believe the success that some old timers have had with Tesla has rendered them lazy, soft or careless; of course I don't blame them because they likely would rather enjoy their profits as appose to scour through endless threads on this forum. With success comes apathy, and a certain level of carelessness creeps in. I know this was somewhat true in my case, I use to go on seeking Alpha to repudiate people like John Peterson, nowadays, I just chill and let others do the dirty work. This may be counter productive as upcoming shorts bring intensity to the game, they have more to lose and more to gain from FUD, so they fight for their life, no matter how ridiculous their argument, they always put up a fight. This is contrary to the present attitude on this forum, some even suggest we don't click on seeking alpha because of bait, but I think it's important that whatever side of the trade you are on, to bring a fight and educate the mass. Not all investors are logical and confident in their evaluation like we are. Many newbies rely on seeking alpha and get chased off by fear. I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on this CC, but I wouldn't be completely out of a QR play either, just because the Tesla train is unpredictable.. which ever side you are on, I am suggesting you hedge in case it runs away or dips for an opportune purchase.

sundaymorning, I do not expect Seeking Alpha to have any influence on the TSLA movements. SA are just opinion pieces and I doubt that they have the power to sway investors. SA followers seem to fall into predetermined camps and trying to convince the other camp to a different point of view seems very ineffective and futile.

Notes from analysts seem to have some needle moving power. Some analysts are better than others. Also factual reports, regardless of the reporting body, can move the stock.

 

[Benz]

Tesla Motors, Inc. Q4 Earnings Tomorrow -- What You Need to Know

Link: http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...rs-inc-q4-earnings-tomorrow-what-you-nee.aspx

 

[uselesslogin]

Tesla Motors, Inc. Q4 Earnings Tomorrow -- What You Need to Know

Link: http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...rs-inc-q4-earnings-tomorrow-what-you-nee.aspx

Analysts, on average, expect Tesla to report non-GAAP revenue and EPS of $1.23 billion and $0.44, up 62% and down 6%, respectively.

??? First off $0.44 sound ridiculously high and Yahoo says $0.31 is expected. Second, down 6% from $0.02?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Analysts at Stifel said in a note on Tuesday that they expect TM to announce global delivery of 31,750 vehicles in 2014, falling short of its goal to deliver 33,000.
The analysts kept their buy rating on the stock, however, and a price target of $400.
Their reasoning for their positive rating and PT is "given the lack of competition, misplaced concerns related to consumer demand, and (Tesla's) continued progress scaling core production."
Tesla is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with consensus calling for earnings of 30 cents a share on sales of $1.21 billion in the quarter, according to FactSet.
Link to original article on MarketWatch

 

[aznt1217]

That's a pretty good note. I already see the headlines something to the affect:

"Tesla continues to lose money: why you should stay away"
"Tesla demand lower than guided"
"Tesla the Amazon of the auto industry"

:biggrin:

What I'm really curious about is what they accrued for those seats that they need to retrofit and how much R&D is stepping up.

 

[doctoxics]

Why not at least15,000 Model X deliveries in 2015 since Tesla now offers early 2016 delivery if the order is placed today. Tesla must complete the existing orders (up to 24,000) before delivering new orders in early 2016.

 

[timf]

Why not at least15,000 Model X deliveries in 2015 since Tesla now offers early 2016 delivery if the order is placed today. Tesla must complete the existing orders (up to 24,000) before delivering new orders in early 2016.

Early 2016 is a vague statement. I've heard it quoted more accurately by people within Tesla as "well into 2016". There's no assurance from Tesla that all or even a significant portion of the first 24,000 will receive delivery in 2015. When I reserved it indicated "Summer 2015" delivery, which is clearly not the case now unless you are getting a Signature. I think 10,000 is a realistic if not slightly optimistic goal, and 15,000 is a bit too far out there even if everything goes perfectly with the testing and roll-out.

 

[Zaxxon]

Early 2016 is a vague statement. I've heard it quoted more accurately by people within Tesla as "well into 2016". There's no assurance from Tesla that all or even a significant portion of the first 24,000 will receive delivery in 2015. When I reserved it indicated "Summer 2015" delivery, which is clearly not the case now unless you are getting a Signature.

Exactly--you need to Tesla Time-adjust that statement. 'Early 2016' translates to 'some slim but non-zero chance of sometime in 2016.' After all, my 2/2014 reservation is due to be delivered any day now (according to what I was told on reserving).

 

[Benz]

Rocket launch is a NO GO.

Next attempt will be tomorrow.

 

[aznt1217]

Rocket launch is a NO GO.

Next attempt will be tomorrow.

Lol so what happens now

 

[Zzzz...]

Lol so what happens now

Elon now choosing Tesla or SpaceX or multitask(one way or another).

 

[erha]

Lol so what happens now

Maybe only JB and Deepak at the meeting.... Is that even a possibility?

 

[FredTMC]

Maybe only JB and Deepak at the meeting.... Is that even a possibility?

I think Elon will be 100% on the EC. Elon isn't essential for the launch at all.

Furthermore, I don't think they'll move or postpone the call.

Once the 1 hour EC is over, I'm sure he'll catch up on the 'details' of how the launch and landing went

I'm sure he'll get a few updates of progress during the call but he won't be terribly distracted during the call. He can wait for details after the call.