Here's an analyst who just lowered Q4 estimated deliveries by 300 on the back of the production issues Tesla had with the P85D in December : http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...s-tesla-estimates-on-currency-still-top-pick/ Taking their estimate of 10900 deliveries in Q4 together with 32no's number posted earlier the final number of deliveries would become 32721.
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chickensevil
Active Member
I had thrown together an initial spreadsheet of each country, their 2014 sales, and then their stores, service centers, and supercharger counts for Europe. I took the time to expand that based on the rough estimates made here and elsewhere on the sales breakdowns for the other parts of the world. For China, because of the way Tesla has it listed on their website "Find Us" page, Hong Kong got thrown in with China.
Finally the "effectiveness" column (which is what really spawned me to do this in the first place) was just a simple division of Tesla "exposure" to the country versus their number of sales. So 17 would mean that per 1 piece of Tesla presence they are generating 17 sales a year. Some countries are more favorable to EVs with incentives which skews their numbers higher, I have no good way of measuring that impact. I also mentioned it in the EU outlook thread that it might be better to weight say a store with a value of 3, a service center a value of 2, and a supercharger with a value of 1 or .5 to get a better feeling for how effective/non-effective Tesla is for a region/country/whatever. But I thought it was an interesting concept and worth sharing.
If we can come up with a good weighting system for sales vs exposure it might help with calculating the future effectiveness of other Models in the region, and at what point a region might turn a profit for Tesla. For example the Model 3 would probably come in at a 3:1 ratio easily compared to the Model S.
So without further ado, here is the sheet:
PS: I threw this here since it was no longer fitting for the EU thread, but don't know if maybe this discussion would be better suited in a different thread once this moves beyond the Q4 and or 2014 discussion.
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And looking over the chart... there must be an error on the number of Superchargers... so I appologise for that. It is probably an issue with how I got the country data from the Find Us page... that or there are about 10 more locations that have come online that isn't reported on the Supercharger page or the third party site Supercharge.info
Finally the "effectiveness" column (which is what really spawned me to do this in the first place) was just a simple division of Tesla "exposure" to the country versus their number of sales. So 17 would mean that per 1 piece of Tesla presence they are generating 17 sales a year. Some countries are more favorable to EVs with incentives which skews their numbers higher, I have no good way of measuring that impact. I also mentioned it in the EU outlook thread that it might be better to weight say a store with a value of 3, a service center a value of 2, and a supercharger with a value of 1 or .5 to get a better feeling for how effective/non-effective Tesla is for a region/country/whatever. But I thought it was an interesting concept and worth sharing.
If we can come up with a good weighting system for sales vs exposure it might help with calculating the future effectiveness of other Models in the region, and at what point a region might turn a profit for Tesla. For example the Model 3 would probably come in at a 3:1 ratio easily compared to the Model S.
So without further ado, here is the sheet:
PS: I threw this here since it was no longer fitting for the EU thread, but don't know if maybe this discussion would be better suited in a different thread once this moves beyond the Q4 and or 2014 discussion.
- - - Updated - - -
And looking over the chart... there must be an error on the number of Superchargers... so I appologise for that. It is probably an issue with how I got the country data from the Find Us page... that or there are about 10 more locations that have come online that isn't reported on the Supercharger page or the third party site Supercharge.info
I'm pretty optimistic about this ER. The timing just feels right as we are coming back strong from an unjustified drop and the stock price is still on the low side. Every day that Tesla makes progress it becomes a more intrinsically valuable company, even if the stock price doesn't always reflect it right away.
People worry about missing 33,000 deliveries because of the P85D issues and cars still stuck in transit at the end of December but I think that is what they were anticipating those when they lowered guidance from 35,000. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised by as low as 32,000 deliveries given Elon's Bloomberg Betty Liu interview where he said they are on track for 32-33k. Regardless, I think people are smart enough to know that production numbers are what matters with a production-constrained company.
I am hoping for good guidance but am keeping in mind that most people here thought 2014 guidance would be in the ballpark of 40,000 before it was announced. Elon stated 50% growth so I think anything less than 50k S+X would be disappointing.
Remember, this was the ER we were looking forward to because of the production jump. I think the big increase in deliveries and revenue, even though already known, are going to make for good headlines. I hope we get one of those big jumps that we haven't had in a while. I am starting to think that Tesla needs the stock price up in order to finance a Model 3 factory - at a certain point it doesn't make sense to try to fit it in when they are already using more than half the capacity of Fremont just on S/X.
People worry about missing 33,000 deliveries because of the P85D issues and cars still stuck in transit at the end of December but I think that is what they were anticipating those when they lowered guidance from 35,000. At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised by as low as 32,000 deliveries given Elon's Bloomberg Betty Liu interview where he said they are on track for 32-33k. Regardless, I think people are smart enough to know that production numbers are what matters with a production-constrained company.
I am hoping for good guidance but am keeping in mind that most people here thought 2014 guidance would be in the ballpark of 40,000 before it was announced. Elon stated 50% growth so I think anything less than 50k S+X would be disappointing.
Remember, this was the ER we were looking forward to because of the production jump. I think the big increase in deliveries and revenue, even though already known, are going to make for good headlines. I hope we get one of those big jumps that we haven't had in a while. I am starting to think that Tesla needs the stock price up in order to finance a Model 3 factory - at a certain point it doesn't make sense to try to fit it in when they are already using more than half the capacity of Fremont just on S/X.
Mike,
I agree with most of your scenario. What I believe you need to get the stock to move the magnitude you are referring to at this ER/CC is positive information about Gfactory (ahead of schedule or maybe a comment about improved battery chemistry), a model X reveal date, and remarks acknowledging that while they did have some production issues around the D launch that those have been fixed and the factory is producing a minimum of 1,200/week and will exit 2015 at 2,000/week and releasing some figures showing demand is increasing. We can have a good spike despite 32-33k produced and a just make/miss on EPS if we get these other positive developments.
If we do not get these I suspect we will have to wait for Q1ER where I do expect the production issues with the D have been ironed out and we see great GMs because of all the Ds being delivered worldwide and the actual reveal of the X during Q1.
I agree with most of your scenario. What I believe you need to get the stock to move the magnitude you are referring to at this ER/CC is positive information about Gfactory (ahead of schedule or maybe a comment about improved battery chemistry), a model X reveal date, and remarks acknowledging that while they did have some production issues around the D launch that those have been fixed and the factory is producing a minimum of 1,200/week and will exit 2015 at 2,000/week and releasing some figures showing demand is increasing. We can have a good spike despite 32-33k produced and a just make/miss on EPS if we get these other positive developments.
If we do not get these I suspect we will have to wait for Q1ER where I do expect the production issues with the D have been ironed out and we see great GMs because of all the Ds being delivered worldwide and the actual reveal of the X during Q1.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I don't know if people saw in the Model S subforums, but the torque sleep update has been rolling out to P85D owners, and efficiency on the D's has gone up noticeably.
One less tough question for the conference call hopefully.
One less tough question for the conference call hopefully.
Benz
Active Member
Tesla Model S sales figures for 2014 Canada:
Link: http://insideevs.com/canada-plug-in-electric-car-sales-january-2015/
- January: 20
- February: 19
- March: 119
- April: 71
- May: 61
- June: 104
- July:48
- August: 25
- September: 194
- October: 37
- November: 26
- December: 123
- YTD 2014: 847
Link: http://insideevs.com/canada-plug-in-electric-car-sales-january-2015/
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Thank you Chickensevil for the relentless gathereing of Data for all. May we all make lots of money on the 12th.
Not a surprise but still interesting how the number spikes the last month of each quarter.
Aronth5,
I think you see Canada treated much like the U.S. in delivery timing. For the first two months of a quarter, much of the production run is sent overseas, so that those deliveries takes place that quarter. The last month of each quarter mostly focuses on U.S. and Canadian deliveries.
Zzzz...
Member
Interesting. I didn't realize the launch got scrubbed again due to inclement weather. I hope they can launch and land successfully by tomorrow. On the CC he may be bound to be on the call or have JB + Deephak comment instead or it can be postponed till later.
Benz
Active Member
Which info are we the most looking forward to during the Conference Call on Wednesday (or in the Shareholder Letter)?
- Delivery numbers in 2014;
- Guidence delivery numbers in 2015;
- News regarding Tesla Model X reveal date;
- News regarding progress Gigafactory;
- News regarding upgrade of the Tesla factory in Fremont;
- News regarding growth/expansion plans in 2015 (more factories, more Supercharger stations, more geographical expansion);
- balance of the reservation deposits account;
- news regarding the Tesla Model 3;
What else are we looking forward to?
- Delivery numbers in 2014;
- Guidence delivery numbers in 2015;
- News regarding Tesla Model X reveal date;
- News regarding progress Gigafactory;
- News regarding upgrade of the Tesla factory in Fremont;
- News regarding growth/expansion plans in 2015 (more factories, more Supercharger stations, more geographical expansion);
- balance of the reservation deposits account;
- news regarding the Tesla Model 3;
What else are we looking forward to?
So he would miss the possible chance to see the rocket land for the first time ever vs. a quarterly conference call? I just don't see that happening except maybe they move the call forward 30 minutes to 5pm or maybe he leaves 10 minutes before launch so we can be there for the landing opportunity. If they weren't trying to land this time I would agree with you.
Personally, I am looking for 'hard numbers' that meet/exceed guidance and expectations. Future guidance is great but at this time in the life cycle of TM I want them to have concrete evidence of what they have achieved (which has been very good/great) versus what they want to achieve in the future. Positive guidance would be 'icing on the cake'
Zzzz...
Member
Sure he will have a monitor in front of him with live feed of lift off and landing attempt. He sure will get plenty distracted from CC at those two points. But he won't be in launch control center, it is not too critical for him to be there anyway.
As for postponing CC scheduled several weeks ahead - Tesla is very much interested in having good relationships with Wall Street analysts. And having Elon not present during CC would also be a bad idea.
I guess in those two 30 seconds windows he would ether try to multitask or make Deepack to answer question at hand. Tesla would still be better off with Elon contributing during most of CC.
OK maybe - but I'll tell you if I were him I'd be hoping the thing gets toasted due to the higher re-entry velocity so as not to miss the celebration the time it does actually land. Obviously the real hope is that it does launch and land tomorrow and this whole thing is moot and Elon has another game changing event tacked onto his accomplishments.
No way. Tesla has had a very, very difficult Q4. I have absolutely no doubt that Musk would absolutely love positive distraction that would bury 2014Q4 news, rather than have Q4 reporting and another failed landing.
typo
As an X reservation holder I want to see the Model X sig#1 deliver date or more importantly XP7004 delivery date!!!!
As a share holder I want to see these in this order
- News regarding growth/expansion plans in 2015 (more factories, more Supercharger stations, more geographical expansion);
- News regarding progress Gigafactory;
- News regarding upgrade of the Tesla factory in Fremont;
- News regarding Tesla Model X reveal date;
- news regarding the Tesla Model 3;
As an X reservation holder I want to see the Model X sig#1 deliver date or more importantly XP7004 delivery date!!!!
As a share holder I want to see these in this order
- News regarding growth/expansion plans in 2015 (more factories, more Supercharger stations, more geographical expansion);
- News regarding progress Gigafactory;
- News regarding upgrade of the Tesla factory in Fremont;
- News regarding Tesla Model X reveal date;
- news regarding the Tesla Model 3;
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