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2015 Perfect Storm - Tesla Model S best selling EV in the U.S. ?

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by RubberToe, Feb 3, 2015.

  1. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    Just wanted to start this thread up when I saw the initial January EV sales numbers. Here they are:

    EV 2015.jpg

    In both 2014 (at bottom) and 2013, the Model S ranked 3rd behind the Leaf and Volt in US sales. I think there are 3 factors at work that will almost certainly get the MS into the top two, and possibly the top spot. Here they are:

    1. The 2015 Volt sales will be greatly diminished due to the upcoming 2016 Volt that has been announced. I think based solely on this, the MS ends up beating the Volt in 2015.

    2. While January is typically slow for the Leaf, this January was even slower than usual. They sold just 1,070 versus a year ago 1,252. I think some of this can be attributed to lower gas prices. And there is supposed to be a larger battery coming around in mid-2016, which should also start eating into sales like is happening to the Volt now. Lower gas prices should erode Leaf sales more than Model S sales, because the Leaf is more likely being purchased by people who are looking to save money versus a gas car.

    3. The latter half of 2014 saw much of the Model S output being used to fill the overseas pipeline, and also overseas deliveries. Now that the pipeline is essentially filled, overseas demand will dictate the delivery of US versus foreign cars. Couple this with increased MS production, and it seems quite likely that the MS US sales go significantly higher this year. Per the website where this is from, 2013 MS US sales were 17,650 and 2014 was 17,300, hence all the stories about "decreasing demand" that were coming out when Tesla started filling up the overseas pipeline.

    Given all the attention Tesla gets from the various sites, won't it be interesting if the new meme in EV land is that the Tesla Model is looking to be the best selling EV in the US in 2015?

    RT
     
  2. BerTX

    BerTX Member

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    Thanks, interesting data. Like you mention, the Tesla numbers are supply-limited, so not really an accurate comparison, but still nice to see good numbers.

    BTW, the rows for the 2015 MiEV and eGolf are not aligned properly -- can't tell which is wrong...
     
  3. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    But the January 2015 Model S sales number is an "estimate".

    It could be off by quite a bit.
     
  4. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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    I guess this is as good a place as any to post this thought:

    With P85D, Tesla has positioned itself as a performance car company as much as a green/EV company.
    They are making sales to many "must have the quickest" customers that aren't even thinking about gas prices.

    So, they have insulated themselves a bit from the possible downturn from the drop in gas prices.
     
  5. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    Disagree. The P85 on the day it was delivered was already in that category.
     
  6. joefee

    joefee Over 2 Million TMC page views

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    @ggr Yes..... the P85 is certainly not milk toast!
     
  7. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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    Yes, the P85 was world class, but P85D has pushed things "over the top" to where many more people just wont consider anything else.
     
  8. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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  9. swengl

    swengl Member

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    Keep in mind also: Those of us that have reservations for "new" models (in my case the S85D) won't be reported until our vehicles are delivered so the next 2 months could be very telling in terms of the bump for the "D" series car inventory.
     
  10. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    And the final monthly tally with the Model S on top. On to February:

    MI 2015_01_final.jpg
     
  11. rage_777

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    How in the world is the graphic so low for the 2014 sales? Wasn't the guidance for 2014 33,000? I thought I read that through Q3 the sales were 22,000.
     
  12. trils0n

    trils0n 2013 P85

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    2014 worldwide guidance was 33k. This is tracking U.S. sales, and is an estimate.
     
  13. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if Cadillac really sold 92 ELRs.

    If Tesla really is the US EV sales winner for January that would be impressive indeed. But the Model S number is an estimate, as in, a "guess".

    Wait a minute...on that chart there is an asterisk after Model S* and then the footnote says *Worldwide Sales.

    1,100 Model S is far too low for worldwide sales.

    Something is wrong with that chart.
     
  14. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    Agree. Very few things go to 60 faster than 3.1 seconds. It's a whole new ballgame.
     
  15. Kickin

    Kickin Member

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    This was at the bottom of the graphic, not included upthread

    "
    2015 Monthly Sales Chart For The Major Plug-In Automakers *Estimated Tesla NA Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals"
     
  16. Kofi

    Kofi Member

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    Some call it the world's fastest 7-seater.
     
  17. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    Well, seems as though February has found the Model S mercilessly unseated as the best selling EV in America by the Leaf. By a whopping 18 vehicles no less. I caught the chart prior to the author sorting it by "Total", so I'll just post that version instead :tongue:

    BTW, other site have different numbers for Tesla. Motor Intelligence shows 1,200 for the Model S, so the Model S could still be the leader. So come on Tesla, start publishing monthly sales totals so you can proudly claim the title as the Best Selling EV in America !

    </end cheer>

    EV February 2015.jpg
     
  18. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    I know its fun to think about the Model S being the best selling EV, but this isn't a game we want to win.

    Everyone is better off, including Tesla, if other EVs sell well - and the Leaf sells 10K units per month.
     
  19. wycolo

    wycolo Active Member

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    ICE sales are increasing so are these figures showing a dent in that increase?
    --
     
  20. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

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    wycolo,
    I also track U.S. Auto sales. So as we proceed down this path I may add some info concerning the % of plug-in's sold versus the overall car sales.

    RT
     

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