2016 FSD video: there was an accident with roadside barrier on Tesla property

[EVNow]

I actually think it’s already solved (as an approach). Tesla is just doing all they can to fit it into the current fsd chip’s flops.

Thats not what I think of as solved.

I think of it as solved when the car can drive by itself anywhere, where an average person can, without any interventions needed. Until this happens, the approach (or high level design) can't be determined to be correct or not.

 

[EVNow]

None of the document is verbatim. It’s not a transcript.
My guess is that the redacted it because they would like people they interview to be honest with them and not worried that what they say could get them fired. The statement could be seen as critical of the CEO.
Is the claim that CJ said level 5 is happening on Elon’s timeline? I’m confused about how the skeptics think CJ answered the question.

Its also possible CJ answered in such a way as to get out of CA reporting requirements. Infact I'm sure this was the primary motivation.

Now, did he also think Musk's timelines are not realistic. Duh. But, would he have said so if there was no CA regulatory pressure - ofcourse, not. Anyone with an iota of understanding of AVs know Musk timelines are not realistic. But, setting realistic timelines is not how Bay area CEOs operate (atleast not the aggressive VC types).

 

[ucmndd]

That 2016 video was straight-up fraud. A lot of us bought cars based on that fantastic bit of fakery.

My “self driving capable” car that was delivered in December 2016 couldn’t even turn its headlights on and off by itself, let alone drive. It had no cruise control at all. It took them over two years to deliver automatic high beams and windshield wipers (which to this day are still a functional joke).

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Elon has repeatedly said - he goes by basic science. He thinks humans don't have lidar and still drive. So, NN, given enough training should be able to drive without lidar. He may be right or wrong - but thats the basic thing. Everything else is speculation / conspiracy theory / TSLAQ stuff.

That's not basic science though.

Humans can move their heads
Humans can close and open their eye lids
Humans have magnitudes more processing power available to them

Science also tells us that humans are weary of autonomous driving, and it needs to be significantly better than human drivers. It can't just be better than the drunks, or the texters. It has to be better than the best of us.

Can it be made to be better than the best of us with vision only? Probably at some point with advancements, but today with the Sensor suite it has along with how they're positioned? The science so far says no.

 

[AndreP]

Exactly this.



You desperately want to believe that Tesla/CJ said those word, but DMV had to strike it in their doc. Now the FUDsters latch onto that redacted text and want to believe they know something important when they weren't there.

It seems far worse to believe that Tesla, or definitely CJ as the Director of the Autopilot initiative, had no clue nine months ago that L5 wasn’t achievable within this time frame.

I would like to give the guy a bit more credit than that.

 

[Bladerskb]

2) I don't know if MobilEye has been paying attention, but their system sucks. Witness Mach-E and silent disengagements while taking "sharp" curves on allowed freeways. This is 2021 and how many years after Tesla split?

To say that’s Mobileye’s system you also have to say that AP1 was mobileye’s system. There are dozens of systems out there that use mobileye NN outputs and are great... Tesla’s AP1, Nissan propilot 2, supercruise, bmw driving professional...

 

[mark95476]

Exactly this. I used AP to drive ~200 continuous miles on Bay Area freeways, but that L2 nag and monitoring isn't going away anytime soon.

DMV mind-reader:
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help you. Firstly, let me embed myself up your rear-end and make you jump through MANY, MANY hoops."

Its also possible CJ answered in such a way as to get out of CA reporting requirements. Infact I'm sure this was the primary motivation.

I doubt this was the very first time Tesla/CJ met with CA DMV and other government regulators and got caught flatfooted that things would be documented. It sounds like CA DMV went on a fishing expedition and tried to get Tesla/CJ to bite. They went as far as to put words into Tesla/CJ's mouth in their official docs.

So you think CJ said that Elon’s tweet matched engineering reality?
Why would anyone think it was a quote? It’s not a transcript and it’s not in quotes.

 

[EVNow]

Nissan propilot 2

Reminds me of when Nissan showed off their autonomous system, with the Prime Minister of Japan in the car. I think that was 8 years ago .. !!

ps :

Japan Prime Minister Abe Goes Public with Autonomous Drive Car

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEPdvl3OFk0[/embed]November 9 - Tokyo – Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took Japan in a new direction Saturday - an Autonomous …

reports.nissan-global.com

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

2) I don't know if MobilEye has been paying attention, but their system sucks. Witness Mach-E and silent disengagements while taking "sharp" curves on allowed freeways. This is 2021 and how many years after Tesla split?

You're blaming MobileEye for a decision Ford made.

The disengagements Blue Cruise does is a result of Fords decision to error on the side of caution with what they allow the system to do. If they're not in the hands free mode the system is perfectly capable of handling those same corners.

This happens a lot with ADAS systems where they are dumbed down out of concern for safety.

We don't know when or if Tesla will introduce a hands free L2 AP experience, and if they do we don't know what limitations Tesla will place on it.

What we do know is Tesla does error on the side of caution much more so now days. For example the unconfirmed lane changes require a very recent (as in a couple seconds or less) torque sensor reading on the steering wheel before it will execute the lane change.

Another example is the use of the driver monitoring to kick people out of the FSD Beta test. Maybe that's what Blue Cruise should do instead of dumbing down the system.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

To say that’s Mobileye’s system you also have to say that AP1 was mobileye’s system. There are dozens of systems out there that use mobileye NN outputs and are great... Tesla’s AP1, Nissan propilot 2, supercruise, bmw driving professional...

You must have been busy in that moment as you left out detail of who's response for what aspect of the ADAS.

I'm still trying to figure out who provides Rivian with their ADAS system and what all comes from where on that one.

 

[EVNow]

You're blaming MobileEye for a decision Ford made.

That is the problem with not having vertical integration.

Irrespective of who to blame, features suffer.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

That is the problem with not having vertical integration.

Irrespective of who to blame, features suffer.

Vertical integration also allows you to keep shipping product so you don't end up like GM not being able to ship SuperCruise.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I doubt this was the very first time Tesla/CJ met with CA DMV and other government regulators and got caught flatfooted that things would be documented. It sounds like CA DMV went on a fishing expedition and tried to get Tesla/CJ to bite. They went as far as to put words into Tesla/CJ's mouth in their official docs.

Would it be better if the DMV didn't document discussions with autonomous vehicle manufacturers?
You keep saying they put words in CJ's mouth with zero evidence to support your claim. The words they supposedly put in to his mouth turned out to be true! Are you claiming that the CA DMV understood the engineering reality better than CJ?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Vertical integration also allows you to keep shipping product so you don't end up like GM not being able to ship SuperCruise.

Neither Tesla nor GM manufactures ICs.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Neither Tesla nor GM manufactures ICs.

True, but when you're vertically integrated you can transition much more quickly to a chip with better supply. Or you control the design itself so you can work with the ASIC fab to guarantee supply.

That's how Tesla has been able to keep shipping product while other companies have had to defeature their product.

Now Tesla hasn't survived unscathed, but they're doing better than most. The combination of vertical integration plus having fewer parts in general has helped them a lot.

They may have been a bit too quick leveraging the integration when they threw out the radar. No one knows for certain if that was a supply constraint, profitability desire, or an Elon whim. But, the level of vertical integration they have allowed them to do that.

 

[mark95476]

Also, how does pointing the finger at their vendor help the customer?

That is the problem with not having vertical integration.

Irrespective of who to blame, features suffer.

 

[mark95476]

<Redacted>

Like I already wrote, you desperately want to believe...

Would it be better if the DMV didn't document discussions with autonomous vehicle manufacturers?
You keep saying they put words in CJ's mouth with zero evidence to support your claim. The words they supposedly put in to his mouth turned out to be true! Are you claiming that the CA DMV understood the engineering reality better than CJ?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Like I already wrote, you desperately want to believe...

I don't understand why you would want to believe that CJ told the DMV that Elon's tweet matched engineering reality...
Wouldn't it be worse if he thought it did?

 

[tomas]

Ok, there’s a 3 year old post about a 5 year old incident that garners a couple of responses in its time, and then suddenly 3 pages and mods moving posts INTO it? Geez, why isn’t this thread archived! There are so many newer FSD developments to discuss!

 

[apsen]

Copilot would've been a better name than Autopilot.

My expectation from the name Autopilot exactly matches the reality. Maybe people need to look up the meaning of the word if they are not familiar with it...

And Full Self Driving is a pretty terrible name for a system that's still anything but (I'm in the FSD Beta).

Currently it is not, but it is not being sold as if it is either. Valid criticism would be why sell system with so unpredictable delivery date and/or communications that it will happen soon...

I would have preferred the progress to be more rapid but I bought FSD with the hope that it will materialize before I run the car into the ground (my two other cars are 2000 Odyssey (bought new) and 2000 Civic (bought used)).