I see you have raised your forecast from what you tweeted to Mark Spiegel a month ago.
Yes, I see it rising a little bit. If AP 2.0 features show up and people get excited about it - it should rise a bit.
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I see you have raised your forecast from what you tweeted to Mark Spiegel a month ago.
Someone please chime in.
Tomorrow's event is for a select group of investors with no press, no CC, no live feed. Is that correct?
Is management allowed to give material info to a small select group?
In what form are we expecting any news? A parallel press release?
I think press is invited and will report what is allowed.
In what form are we expecting any news? A parallel press release?
Have to pat myself on the back a bit
22,200/25,000 = 89%
There are only 10 AP1 cars in the US shown today in ev-cpo, and all of them are demos. A different story in Europe where there are 400 and more than 300 have only delivery miles. There are more AP2 cars in inventory than AP1 cars.I do have concern about many of the inventory cars. Most of them are of AP1. I doubt anyone will still want those cars, and TESLA has to cut the price very much to get rid of them.
I do have concern about many of the inventory cars. Most of them are of AP1. I doubt anyone will still want those cars, and TESLA has to cut the price very much to get rid of them.
I read it a different way. There was no point in offering big discounts because they were production constrained in the quarter. No point in discounting something you can't deliver. Also they worked manufacturing really hard over the Christmas holidays in order to get to the good production number even though they couldn't deliver those cars. So Tesla still does care about the quarterly numbers.My guiding theory going into this is that since they were not (I think) aggressively discounting in Q4, they must not be scrambling to make the numbers. But they were never on pace to knock it out of the park, though they sort of came close except for delivery overhang.
Maybe this is the start of the "great relaxing"... Instead of treating the making of quarterly numbers as all-important, they are just going to let the results flow. No discounts. Less geographic batching micromanaging. No panicky "Please take delivery Dec 31" messages to customers. It had to happen someday.
If you take that graph, and alter it so 3Q16 gives back much of what it took from 2Q16 due to production delays, and 4Q15 (which pulled a lot of demand levers forward from 1Q16), gives some to 1Q16, you end up with a pretty reasonable growth pattern.
For those who can do basic math, that's about 9 days at the Q4 exit rate we were targetting of 2400/wk. Pretty easy to see how a supplier goobering a shipment could cause 9 days worth of problem.
Tesla sells every car they produce - they guided to 80,000-90,000 cars at the start of the year, and people said they were crazy, that they wouldn't even get close.
They built 84k cars - right in the middle of their guidance, and delivered 76k cars to customers - with nearly 7k still en-route to be delivered in the next week or two. Is it a miss? Eh, sure, kind of. It really sucks that you can get hard data that the company is growing >50% YoY, and gets flogged for delivering 7k cars a week late and 'missing' their target that nobody thought was credible to begin with.
Again, check the UK, Australia, and Hong Kong delivery threads for the Model X homologation delays. That's not a production problem.
My main concern is how does this kind of delay translate to M3 ramp? The best case scenario is that all parts that will go into M3 are also proved out in MS/MX, but we simply don't know, the worst case could be that there will be multiple of these 9 days kind of delay, each could contribute to 10-15% schedule delay. In that case I can see Adam Jonas scenario becoming a reality.
Actually this would be a good thing ... maybe I can buy more stock at a lower price."Journalism" at its finest.
I predict short-term SP is f-ed
There may be multiple, but hopefully they will happen in parallel and not serially, and the total felay will be much shorter. I can only surmise that the analyst misread Tesla's guidance for new orders as applying to all reservations, cause his prediction is way off.there will be multiple of these 9 days kind of delay, each could contribute to 10-15% schedule delay.
Before Adam Jonas went all negative on the M3 target, we at least had some "Jonalism" to counter these "Journalism", but now, no one in financial reporting has anything good to say about Tesla.Actually this would be a good thing ... maybe I can buy more stock at a lower price.
There were only 6,450 in transit at the end of this quarter.....there should have been over 8,000. Must have that many more inventory cars?
Yes, but that is because all the stories read "missed guidance..." instead of "showed outstanding yoy growth and excellent demand ..." .... how else would the market respond but to the headlines.I made that same point elsewhere. But it's all a matter of perspective, number of people in AH disagree with you.
Based on the information we have, I see an extremely good quarter.
Think about it: last year at this time Tesla was working out its delivery guidance for 2016, as they are currently working on the same for 2017. !