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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Someone please chime in.

Tomorrow's event is for a select group of investors with no press, no CC, no live feed. Is that correct?

Is management allowed to give material info to a small select group?

In what form are we expecting any news? A parallel press release?

Normal procedure would be to issue a press release simultaneously to avoid causing selective disclosure problems

Selective Disclosure and Insider Trading
 
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Well... the whole problem with making statement on Oct 26 about 50.000 deliveries and (slightly) missing it, is that we, on TMC, can see beyond it and see the 6500 in transit & sky high demand.

Belgian media including state-owned,however, is absolutely loving it with headliners such as "Tesla hype reaches standstill".
Same here in Hungary, but I am not even surprised anymore. The largest online news portal regularly writes negative stories about them - especially in the business section. But they rarely even get deliveries vs production vs sales right, they imply that less Teslas were sold than expected i.e. there is a demand issue.

The headline today reads "Once again Tesla misses the mark - of course they have excuses again". There is not even an editor, a journalist signing these articles, no means to comment or provide feedback.
 
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I'm very curious if the FF91 can deliver all of the features they're promising. They're the kind of stuff that sounds cool and might look manageable but can be insanely difficult to execute reliably. I hope they succeed. More cool electric cars on the road is a plus for all.
Anyone know what happened to FF01 thru FF90?
 
I'm rather ambivalent to the miss on the delivery numbers, I don't think it matters one smidgeon. I find if far more important comparing the two semesters, Q1 was 33k, S2 46k - that's a huge increase and very positive.

I don't expect much change in the SP. In fact I think it's all irrelevant. The only thing that matters is the M3's start rolling off the production line late this year, then the SP will rocket.

Good luck to FF, although I personally think the car looks hideous - WTF is the Echo thing on top of the frunk? Do they have a frunk, anyone know?

Typically, BBC, who have historically bashed Tesla, make a very sensationalist headline: CES 2017: Faraday Future unveils super fast electric car - BBC News

However if you read the article, there's not much conviction:

Ever since it unveiled a futuristic concept car at last year's CES, Faraday Future has been met with much scepticism, said Gartner automotive analyst Mike Ramsay.

"This is a must impress situation," he added.

"Even if everything had been going perfectly, it is very difficult to be a start-up carmaker, particularly when you are coming from a tech background."

Having seen the presentation, Mr Ramsay commented that he was "not convinced" that the firm was yet a clear contender.

"It still seems like it's more in the realm of fantasy than reality," he added.

"For the car to have a 130 kWh battery pack, it would be very heavy, and very expensive - extremely expensive to have a battery that size."
 
I'm been reflecting on how my analysis of all of the good data crowd sourced here failed to forecast this delivery miss. What I realized is that we have some good indicators of demand, and of demand relative to production, but not of the production rate, with one exception. Going through the metrics:

- VIN counting - a good indicator of absolute demand. VINs are issued for customer orders and for inventory cars that Tesla expects to sell or which will replace existing demos that will in turn be sold. But that rate that VINs are issued does not tell us the rate at which they will be produced

- Tesla website wait times - a good indicator of demand relative to production. Wait times can increase because demand picks up or because production slows down and there is no way to tell which it is.

- ev-cpo historical data - shows how many inventory cars are being sold relative to prior quarters, but does not capture all of the sales. Also there is no way of knowing what Tesla's planned mix is between inventory sales and custom orders.

- Factory tour observations - anecdotal evidence of the assembly line not operating during tours or the parking lot being relatively empty can tell us if the factory is running. However when it is running we have no way of knowing how many cars are being produced per day/week/month.

- Delivery spreadsheets - I was looking at these to see whether Tesla was pressing to deliver December orders before quarter end. When they did not I assumed it meant they had the quarter made. Come to find out it was because they didn't have enough production to fill those orders. However @bonaire pointed out today that the relative number of spreadsheet entries between Q3 and Q4 correlated highly to the absolute delivery numbers in those quarters. This will definitely be one to watch.

- InsideEVs monthly reports. Looks like these are pretty accurate. I thought they were missing the extreme geographical batching and the shift toward more inventory cars being sold. I guess not.

My other observation is that every time Tesla does a hardware transition they miss their forecast delivery number. This happened in 4Q14 when the D and AP1 hardware was introduced, in 2Q16 with the exterior refresh, and again this quarter with the AP2 upgrade. It just takes longer than Tesla believes to "slipstream" these hardware changes into the manufacturing process.

Contrast this with traditional auto makers who shut down the factories for weeks once per year for the model year changeover. My experience has been that if you try to order a new model year BMW in July in the US you are lucky to get it by Thanksgiving. The assembly line is shut down at least for August, starts producing the new model in September, and of course there is the shipping delay. Tesla believes they can do these kind of changes in 10-14 days and it just hasn't happened that way. Tesla, please do not refresh the interior until you figure this out.

Looking back, there was a thinly veiled warning about deliveries issued by Ben Kallo of Baird, as posted here. He turned out to be right. I am hoping that he is right about this miss not being "an overhang". Hopefully TSLA could recover to be above SMA(200) which stand at $214.41.

"The analyst also does not believe the Q4 delivery number (expected by Jan. 3) will be an overhang and recommends buying shares heading into 2017 as they believe the stock will make new highs."
 
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There is a worry though that since this increase wasn't done on Tesla's terms, the banking partners were able to ask for more compensation.

Well, this increase was backed up by assets which are in very high demand (cars in transit), so I doubt that this situation can be characterized as Tesla being at the mercy of banks to dictate terms.

I would also imagine that extension of existing agreement would be based on ... well, existing terms.
 
Is there ever any published number as to the order backlog? X months of production or number of outstanding orders?

In the early days. But those numbers are the blood pressure and temperature of the company and are held tightly in terms of unit-numbers. Currently a "New new order" will include both a named customer order and a restocking order for a Tesla store. They can double orders by just ordering a new set of cars with new features like the AP2.0 causing "more orders in Q4", Just as the burst of Vin # issuances on 3/30/2016 helped "45% more Model S orders in 16Q1 than 15Q1" due to the prep to build off the old fascia cars to be replaced with "facelift" models.
 
In the early days. But those numbers are the blood pressure and temperature of the company and are held tightly in terms of unit-numbers. Currently a "New new order" will include both a named customer order and a restocking order for a Tesla store. They can double orders by just ordering a new set of cars with new features like the AP2.0 causing "more orders in Q4", Just as the burst of Vin # issuances on 3/30/2016 helped "45% more Model S orders in 16Q1 than 15Q1" due to the prep to build off the old fascia cars to be replaced with "facelift" models.

What Tesla calls "net orders" does not include cars built for demo/inventory fleet.
 
The bear narrative that Tesla is going bankrupt before the Model 3 launch is running out of breathing room. While the deliveries are a miss, it was not nearly enough of a miss to help drive their narrative. The completed vehicles in transit can be borrowed against with the ABL if Tesla chose to do so. Further, the increase in demand, as Tesla stated in their announcement and as evidenced by the increased wait times means that one of the core tenets of their thesis of collapsing demand is demonstratively not true.

The question for short sellers now is whether or not they hold these positions going into the home stretch of the Model 3 launch. Neither bulls nor bears really received what they wanted with these delivery numbers, but time favors the bulls.

Today, hopefully, we get some updates on the Gigafactory and on the state of the Tesla Energy business. That might provide a lot more support, as the revenue numbers and the outlook isn't just about cars anymore.
 
Looking back, there was a thinly veiled warning about deliveries issued by Ben Kallo of Baird, as posted here. He turned out to be right. I am hoping that he is right about this miss not being "an overhang". Hopefully TSLA could recover to be above SMA(200) which stand at $214.41.

"The analyst also does not believe the Q4 delivery number (expected by Jan. 3) will be an overhang and recommends buying shares heading into 2017 as they believe the stock will make new highs."
Unfortunately the overhang is that tesla's management cannot be taken at their word about
Quarterly results.
 
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In the early days. But those numbers are the blood pressure and temperature of the company and are held tightly in terms of unit-numbers. Currently a "New new order" will include both a named customer order and a restocking order for a Tesla store. They can double orders by just ordering a new set of cars with new features like the AP2.0 causing "more orders in Q4", Just as the burst of Vin # issuances on 3/30/2016 helped "45% more Model S orders in 16Q1 than 15Q1" due to the prep to build off the old fascia cars to be replaced with "facelift" models.

Mumbo jumbo not worth deciphering
 
The bear narrative that Tesla is going bankrupt before the Model 3 launch is running out of breathing room. While the deliveries are a miss, it was not nearly enough of a miss to help drive their narrative. The completed vehicles in transit can be borrowed against with the ABL if Tesla chose to do so. Further, the increase in demand, as Tesla stated in their announcement and as evidenced by the increased wait times means that one of the core tenets of their thesis of collapsing demand is demonstratively not true.

The question for short sellers now is whether or not they hold these positions going into the home stretch of the Model 3 launch. Neither bulls nor bears really received what they wanted with these delivery numbers, but time favors the bulls.

Today, hopefully, we get some updates on the Gigafactory and on the state of the Tesla Energy business. That might provide a lot more support, as the revenue numbers and the outlook isn't just about cars anymore.

To add couple more points, increase in demand along with the fact that Tesla demonstrated ability to increase production above 2,500 cars/week (to estimated 2950 cars/week) should show their ability to increase both top and bottom line in the very near future. The second point is that based on SolarCity recently monetizing their future stream of income, Q4 cash flow might prove to be quite good. Tesla demonstrating that they indeed can self-finance M3 ramp could be very bullish for SP.
 
What Tesla calls "net orders" does not include cars built for demo/inventory fleet.

I have proven it does based on prior threads.

And it should. As buyers take off old inventory from lots, they need replacement. Inventory cars "will end up in customer hands eventually" and are in-transit. Also, this matches supportive ways Tesla words things.
 
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Unfortunately the overhang is that tesla's management cannot be taken at their word about
Quarterly results.

Yes, but for those willing to look a little further, i.e. at basic context, the conclusion can be not as negative overall as could be assumed on a first look. Correctly guessing about the prevailing investment sentiment, of course, could be proven golden...
 
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I have proven it does based on prior threads.

And it should. As buyers take off old inventory from lots, they need replacement. Inventory cars "will end up in customer hands eventually" and are in-transit. Also, this matches supportive ways Tesla words things.

I do not believe so. You are conflating sold inventory car with the car built for inventory. These are not the same. When Tesla built AP1 inventory, these cars did not have customers "placing orders" for them.
 
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