2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[NOLA_Mike]

Some would point out that this is already happening with algobot hedge funds; the best are very consistently better at short-term trading than any human. Obviously due to the legal system the owners of the "AI" are the ones who have the money.

Long term trading is another matter.

I think the trick is figuring out how to trade alongside them and not against them. Just bring me and my little lots along for the ride please Mr. A.I. Bot...

 

[Waiting4M3]

Do you really expect fully automated cars will be accepted by the public just because they're safer than manually driven cars? If so, why? Didn't work for trains.

If they start seeing lower insurance rates because of lower accident rates, they might

 

[neroden]

Here is what I found talking to anti clean energy people on the facebook car advertisements I am trolling. Californians look at how their solar panels pay for themselves in 6-8 years but forget that the same is not true in Ohio or Florida. I ran a random address from two peoples area through project sunroof from google, and one said it will break even in 20 years, the other said not even then. Which is why they think solar is a scam.

What puzzles me is that even in germany people are able to benefit from solar, so how could it not be making sense in Ohio and Florida then ? Maybe project sunroof is too pessimistic about the cost?

Bingo. The issue is that average US rooftop install costs are way the hell too high -- much higher than in Germany or Australia. This is due entirely to "marketing", "customer acquisition" (also marketing), "overhead", "supply chain" (wholesaler profit) and "profit" -- not due to actual costs of panels or installation labor.

This has been pretty well discussed and analyzed to death on several other websites, and this is the consensus opinion.

I've been waiting for the nonsense to be squeezed out of the US pricing before getting solar panels. I suspect Musk is going to squeeze the nonsense out... vertical integration allows him to eliminate "supply chain", and Tesla knows how to do marketing and "customer acquisition" at very low cost.

I know I got my own solar system about $8k cheaper than what they advertised, but it did take major shopping around and finding a nongreedy contractor willing to install for about $1/W as all the big players seemed to agree on the price of installation (excluding material mind you) to be closer to $1.8/W

 

[larmor]

If they start seeing lower insurance rates because of lower accident rates, they might

Or there may be another FB post to check, just sayin' priorities have changed over the last two decades.

 

[larmor]

Some would point out that this is already happening with algobot hedge funds; the best are very consistently better at short-term trading than any human. Obviously due to the legal system the owners of the "AI" are the ones who have the money.

Long term trading is another matter.

Unless the AI engine were to use the money to buy real estate, and then charge rent to the human(s).

 

[neroden]

If they start seeing lower insurance rates because of lower accident rates, they might

It will be interesting to see how that happens; insurance can be weird.

Right now the primary determinants of insurance rates are:
(1) where do you live?
(2) do you personally have a record of at-fault accidents?

I don't really see the geography-based part of insurance rates changing much for a long time, because it's priced based on how bad the OTHER drivers in the area are.

People who personally have a record of at-fault accidents will probably buy semi-automated (driver is still legally responsible but car will automatically brake etc) cars as soon as possible in order to try to reduce their personal rate of at-fault accidents, and thank goodness, since that makes the rest of us safer.

Of course, if enough of them do this, it lowers insurance rates for everyone in the geographic area...

 

[AlMc]

Sell at $1000/share ! Actually, I'm being a bit facetious, because I may end up reevaluating Tesla when it hits $1000 and decide that it's actually worth more than that. But if it hits $1000 this year, I'm out.

My standing sell order on all shares is $999. I don't wish to be greedy.

 

[larmor]

It will be interesting to see how that happens; insurance can be weird.

Right now the primary determinants of insurance rates are:
(1) where do you live?
(2) do you personally have a record of at-fault accidents?

I don't really see the geography-based part of insurance rates changing much for a long time, because it's priced based on how bad the OTHER drivers in the area are.

People who personally have a record of at-fault accidents will probably buy semi-automated (driver is still legally responsible but car will automatically brake etc) cars as soon as possible in order to try to reduce their personal rate of at-fault accidents, and thank goodness, since that makes the rest of us safer.

Of course, if enough of them do this, it lowers insurance rates for everyone in the geographic area...

I think insurance companies are watching self driving very carefully. Mix in big data and our AI 'friend' and we can get down to micro analysis for rates, do you normally drive in an intersection with high pedestrian crossings, where people cross after the light? Do you do a rolling stop... I could go on...

 

[mmd]

I went back and checked and the first phase will at least have two cathode ovens, which was said on the gigafactory tour:

Go to 18:25.

On the same tour it was said that the anode production is basically just mirrored on the other side of the building. So, two cathode lines and two anode lines. (At least.)

Thanks for the video link. But I didn't get how you concluded two lines from this. He said "oven 2 goes right here". That means to me, it will go there in the future, not there yet. Can anyone who was on the tour confirm?
Instead of all these circling around tidbits, I would'v just liked the raw numbers from the horse's mouth, like in the Panasonic press releases I cited earlier. But I guess this horse won't spit out any numbers for this.

BTW, interesting hypothesis about space needed to age the cells. What happens naturally during shipping from Japan now has to happen inside the GF

 

[dmckinstry]

I think all the pieces are now in place for Tesla to become a $700B to $1T company if it executes well. Unless there is a dramatic change I plan to hold tight for a long time to let it play out.

I'll hold about a third of my current shares until then. However, if during a squeeze it goes up fast enough I'll sell enough to pay for my daughter's Model 3 and then at a higher point to pay for a Model X to replace my '13 Model S.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Automated trains have had close to zero accidents per mile. There have been a large number of suicides, which are very hard to prevent -- there have been a few people who accidentally fell onto tracks in front of an oncoming train. Over two decades of experience.

By contrast, manually driven trains still have accidents where the trains actually go where they're not supposed to. There was one just last week on the LIRR.

And yet it's still hard to get public acceptance of fully automated trains. Frustrating, isn't it?

Do you really expect fully automated cars will be accepted by the public just because they're safer than manually driven cars? If so, why? Didn't work for trains.

The benefit from automating a train to the majority of users of trains is close to zero. They aren't the driver, so they don't directly benefit from not having to drive. Extremely different case with personals vehicles where the the vast majority benefit from not having to drive. Therefore, it will be easier to accept since there is a massive direct benefit to the user.

 

[racer26]

Bingo. The issue is that average US rooftop install costs are way the hell too high -- much higher than in Germany or Australia. This is due entirely to "marketing", "customer acquisition" (also marketing), "overhead", "supply chain" (wholesaler profit) and "profit" -- not due to actual costs of panels or installation labor.

This has been pretty well discussed and analyzed to death on several other websites, and this is the consensus opinion.

I've been waiting for the nonsense to be squeezed out of the US pricing before getting solar panels. I suspect Musk is going to squeeze the nonsense out... vertical integration allows him to eliminate "supply chain", and Tesla knows how to do marketing and "customer acquisition" at very low cost.

Marketing and "customer acquisition" is simple when your product is objectively the best product on the market and nobody else is even close, to the point where buying anything else would be crazy. PowerWall2 is already there, and the solar roof is sounding like its going to obsolete buying non-solar roofs.

 

[Dwdnjck]

I wil remain shareholder until I get to attend the shareholder party celebrating Tesla's one millionth solar roof or Tesla's two millionth pickup, whichever comes first.

 

[traxila]

My standing sell order on all shares is $999. I don't wish to be greedy.

Tesla at 150b market cap a sell? Honestly, if they get there they will probably go much higher.

 

[JRP3]

And then they have to have all the cells sit still for *how* long?

Last I knew it was 2-4 weeks or so. There may be ways to speed up that process so it might be less than that. There did seem to be a fairly large area of racks for cell aging in the GF but I don't know how large it is in proportion to the rest of the GF.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I really miss you guys (just like family) but I have been fighting a urban ground war over on Twitter. Give me a follow at @diggydoy if you want to be bombarded with constant bullish Tesla news and updates. I want to be more annoying than Mark Speigel but on the bull side. I laugh myself into a tizzy everyday with some of the ridiculous stuff I tweet. Kopydunt, Spiegel, BossHoggHazard, Tweetermeyer, Grant Dossetto and Bonaire must really hate me this past $50 dollar run. I am a tad bit relentless.

 

[sub]

Haven't been keeping up with the thread but I saw the above discussion regarding insurance rates so I thought I would mention this, apologies if I'm repeating.

My wife read in the SF Chronicle I believe that a majority of organ donations come from vehicle accidents and those in charge of the donation program are already worried and trying to figure out solutions.

 

[EinSV]

I really miss you guys (just like family) but I have been fighting a urban ground war over on Twitter. Give me a follow at @diggydoy if you want to be bombarded with constant bullish Tesla news and updates. I want to be more annoying than Mark Speigel but on the bull side. I laugh myself into a tizzy everyday with some of the ridiculous stuff I tweet. Kopydunt, Spiegel, BossHoggHazard, Tweetermeyer, Grant Dossetto and Bonaire must really hate me this past $50 dollar run. I am a tad bit relentless.

I do peek at Twitter once and a while to see what sort of mischief Mark BS, Bonairevolt, KopeeDunt and the rest of that merry bunch are up to and have gotten a kick out of seeing you jump into the fray.

Have fun!

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I do peek at Twitter once and a while to see what sort of mischief Mark BS, Bonairevolt, KopeeDunt and the rest of that merry bunch are up to and have gotten a kick out of seeing you jump into the fray.

Have fun!

You are one of my biggest fans. You will not be forgotten. When I am living the Richard Branson lifestyle due to having invested in Tesla, you and your loved ones will get the first invite to test out my yacht.

 

[EinSV]

You are one of my biggest fans. You will not be forgotten. When I am living the Richard Branson lifestyle due to having invested in Tesla, you and your loved ones will get the first invite to test out my yacht.

Perfect. I'll bring the champagne.