2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[elasalle]

Would now be a good time to do another capital raise and start building GF2? (And maybe GF3/4, too?)

Without getting into politics but I see a "sell everything and the kitchen sink as long as you can make a buck" period coming from the fossil fuel industry. Granted, this may not last more than a couple (maybe 8?) years but still - wouldn't now be the time to intensify the race and give the carbon industry a mighty kick into the "free market"? And with $TSLA being where it is now - why not make good use of the time?

Hope there is no Capital Raise that will buck the upward trend ...
GF1 is being used to now also make motors etc for Model 3, so hope no GF2 till GF1 is done and fully utilized. Plus the Buffalo Plant ( aquired along with SCTY) is also in the works.
Before elections i think intent for TSLA was to build an assembly line (factory) in Europe or China. But post elections, and with EM's visits to 1600 Pen Ave, not sure if things will change.
I am a TSLA investor and a Model 3 reservation holder - for extra perks and a reasonable delivery, I would put down a few more grand(say 2K). So just like 1000$ referral program, say if TSLA gave some perk program for Model 3 holders - not sure how many other Model 3 reservation holders would do the same (& if at all that is legal) ... Also not sure if giving away perks for additional down payment will be more benifitial for TSLA
If there is a Capital Raise, hope it only happens after more details on Model 3 timeline ...

 

[Intl Professor]

This is a good example of what the crux of the argument is. One side is saying this requires some kind of sacred knowledge on the part of the machine to resolve this. The other side simply says "hey that's parking lot speeds, just start driving and because AI is so much better than humans in tactical aspects, it'll avoid collision even if the other car does something stupid".

Not so much to this post, but for the two others quoting my original, the solution to the 4-way stop is linking all cars.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Again I have to reiterate that the gist of my posts today revolve around the 13 month analog setup that points to potential major breakout between now and 3-4 months from now(latter looks more likely). A small part of this analog also portends to a small pullback before this breakout, but requires SP to follow the analog to the T, which rarely happens. This pullback does fit with our current short term overextention and upcoming earnings used as an excuse. I know delivery numbers are already priced in, but since SP have rallied so much, market may use earnings to pullback anyways. But to emphasize I don't really suggest taking action on this since it is too micro, too much a gamble whether it will happen or not. Perhaps instead they preannounce blowout Q1 deliveries during earnings and we breakout instead, who knows. It is better off figuring out how to accumulate in anticipation of the 13 month breakout than to try to time a pullback that may or may not happen, IMO.

Thanks. Makes sense.

 

[Intl Professor]

Wow it's cool that your 7 month old is going to post on the forums.

As we have come to expect.

 

[dirtyofries]

So...people's thoughts/feeling/observations about Elon's tweet in favor of Rex Tillerson? I'm feeling something here about a carbon tax or dropping subsidies...

"This may sound surprising coming from me, but I agree with The Economist. Rex Tillerson has the potential to be an excellent Sec of State."

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[kenliles]

electrek article on Jason Hughes 100 tear down:

"Hughes got his hands a 100 kWh battery pack and did another teardown to reveal Tesla’s new cooling system and that it doesn’t have the same capacity as advertised. Though this time, it’s a higher capacity: 102.4 kWh."

"Basically they crammed a couple more rows of cells into the module. But what about the rumors around cooling? Well, they did modify the cooling, but not in any exotic way. The new modules simply have two shorter and thinner cooling loops per module. This way the coolant doesn’t have to run past so many cells before exiting."

85 vs 100:

Teardown of new 100 kWh Tesla battery pack reveals new cooling system and 102 kWh capacity

 

[Zaxxon]

Wow, you were paying top dollar for all your service.

Alright, Topper. No, the guy who paid 4x what I did is the one paying top dollar.

 

[tander]

So...people's thoughts/feeling/observations about Elon's tweet in favor of Rex Tillerson? I'm feeling something here about a carbon tax or dropping subsidies...

"This may sound surprising coming from me, but I agree with The Economist. Rex Tillerson has the potential to be an excellent Sec of State."

Elon Musk on Twitter

Sounds like a pragmatic perspective, not sure why he is tweeting about it. I wouldn't hold my breath for a carbon tax though, even talking about dropping subsidies would be big.

 

[SunCatcher]

If only PEOPLE would leave the driving to the Auto Pilot, we wouldn't need stop signs OR traffic lights.

Of course, were not quite there yet...

 

[30seconds]

Hope there is no Capital Raise that will buck the upward trend ...
GF1 is being used to now also make motors etc for Model 3, so hope no GF2 till GF1 is done and fully utilized. Plus the Buffalo Plant ( aquired along with SCTY) is also in the works.
Before elections i think intent for TSLA was to build an assembly line (factory) in Europe or China. But post elections, and with EM's visits to 1600 Pen Ave, not sure if things will change.
I am a TSLA investor and a Model 3 reservation holder - for extra perks and a reasonable delivery, I would put down a few more grand(say 2K). So just like 1000$ referral program, say if TSLA gave some perk program for Model 3 holders - not sure how many other Model 3 reservation holders would do the same (& if at all that is legal) ... Also not sure if giving away perks for additional down payment will be more benifitial for TSLA
If there is a Capital Raise, hope it only happens after more details on Model 3 timeline ...

I would disagree. I think GF2 groundbreaking in in 12-18 months once Model 3 production gets going or TE utility scale orders take off. Also will be in Europe or Asia. Lowest cost will be the smallest amount of physicial materials to be moved between the ground and the customer (per Elon). Plus this takes care of currency risk and also is a good response to potential trade war coming out of 1600 Penn. If US implements import duties then other countries will do the same. Local production will bypass these duties.

 

[MartinAustin]

...now they are all distracted by the new administrations insistence they build vehicles in the USA for sale in the USA.

They are falling further and further behind.

And there's this interesting pair of tweets -

As I see it, there is a chance the auto manufacturers will want to slow some things down, simply to wait for Trump to pass on through like some stone in our gut. Any day they do this, any day they schedule meetings to discuss new crap coming from the direction of the Whitehouse, is a day they are not catching up with what Tesla is doing - since Tesla is already making sure it's off the Whitehouse Radar.

 

[madodel]

So...people's thoughts/feeling/observations about Elon's tweet in favor of Rex Tillerson? I'm feeling something here about a carbon tax or dropping subsidies...

"This may sound surprising coming from me, but I agree with The Economist. Rex Tillerson has the potential to be an excellent Sec of State."

Elon Musk on Twitter

It's not like anyone's opinion/facts/experience actually matters on any of that.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

I think we will find out that President Trump has given Elon Musk the green light to revamp the entire electrical grid. I think we are going to see something so spectacular our grandchildren's children will talk about it.

 

[sdtslafan]

So...people's thoughts/feeling/observations about Elon's tweet in favor of Rex Tillerson? I'm feeling something here about a carbon tax or dropping subsidies...

"This may sound surprising coming from me, but I agree with The Economist. Rex Tillerson has the potential to be an excellent Sec of State."

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk is now an INSIDER. He's been to 3 meetings with Trump and /or Trump's advisor, more than any other CEO as far as I know.

Tillerson is one of the few cabinet picks who is reasonable and isn't a blatant mistake. He's already been approved so its now done deal. By voicing his approval, Elon shows support for one of Trumps objectives without any risk or chance of affecting the outcome.

Elon is ingratiating himself with very powerful people who can return the favor in the future.

Trump realizes that supporting Elon can win him respect from progressives in our county who mostly didn't support him during the election. If Tesla / Spacex succeed, Trump can also claim some responsibility for the large number of jobs created.

Peter Thiel said Trump and Elon are alike in many ways. No doubt, they have taken notice of his comment and are now reflecting over their similarities and what could come from collaborating together.

This has been a big blow to shorts. HUGE. Those that remain short don't comprehend the implications. And its only the beginning.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Elon Musk is now an INSIDER. He's been to 3 meetings with Trump and /or Trump's advisor, more than any other CEO as far as I know.

Tillerson is one of the few cabinet picks who is reasonable and isn't a blatant mistake. He's already been approved so its now done deal. By voicing his approval, Elon shows support for one of Trumps objectives without any risk or chance of affecting the outcome.

Elon is ingratiating himself with very powerful people who can return the favor in the future.

Trump realizes that supporting Elon can win him respect from progressives in our county who mostly didn't support him during the election. If Tesla / Spacex succeed, Trump can also claim some responsibility for the large number of jobs created.

Peter Thiel said Trump and Elon are alike in many ways. No doubt, they have taken notice of his comment and are now reflecting over their similarities and what could come from collaborating together.

This has been a big blow to shorts. HUGE. And its only the beginning.

In social psychology, reciprocity is a social rule that says people should repay, in kind, what another person has provided for them;[1] that is, people give back (reciprocate) the kind of treatment they have received from another. By virtue of the rule of reciprocity, people are obligated to repay favors, gifts, invitations, etc. in the future. If someone receives a gift for their birthday, a reciprocal expectation may influence them to do the same on the gift-giver's birthday. This sense of future obligation associated with reciprocity makes it possible to build continuing relationships and exchanges. Reciprocal actions of this nature are important to social psychology as they can help explain the maintenance of social norms.

 

[madodel]

In social psychology, reciprocity is a social rule that says people should repay, in kind, what another person has provided for them;[1] that is, people give back (reciprocate) the kind of treatment they have received from another. By virtue of the rule of reciprocity, people are obligated to repay favors, gifts, invitations, etc. in the future. If someone receives a gift for their birthday, a reciprocal expectation may influence them to do the same on the gift-giver's birthday. This sense of future obligation associated with reciprocity makes it possible to build continuing relationships and exchanges. Reciprocal actions of this nature are important to social psychology as they can help explain the maintenance of social norms.

Trump his no cognizance of social norms. So all Elon is doing is not incur the wrath of the Orange One.

 

[Intl Professor]

In social psychology, reciprocity is a social rule that says people should repay, in kind, what another person has provided for them;[1] that is, people give back (reciprocate) the kind of treatment they have received from another. By virtue of the rule of reciprocity, people are obligated to repay favors, gifts, invitations, etc. in the future. If someone receives a gift for their birthday, a reciprocal expectation may influence them to do the same on the gift-giver's birthday. This sense of future obligation associated with reciprocity makes it possible to build continuing relationships and exchanges. Reciprocal actions of this nature are important to social psychology as they can help explain the maintenance of social norms.

One way or another, one should always show proper respect for your opponents and friends. Hate and flattery are the perversions.

 

[kenliles]

I think we are going to see something so spectacular our grandchildren's children will talk about it.

I agree with this part

 

[SteveG3]

How large of a factor is capital gains taxation when it comes to peoples decision to hold?

I got in when SP was around 200 with the biggest salvo I could. It wouldn't be a bad move to set a sell limit to 250. But I'm not wanting to do that because of the higher taxation rates for stocks held less than one year.

Is the best move to just get out at the first sign of a dip, watch to rebuy or just hold for a year and make decisions at that point?

I bought years ago and in all probability will hold for many years to come. what about dips? when they get silly large, I add trading shares. I don't write this to be snarky, but, rather to share a strategy that lets you benefit if a dip does happen without potentially being left out of a position if a dip does not happen. looking out a decade, I find it extraordinarily probable that Tesla will do better than the rest of the market, I'm ready to add shares at lower prices rather than take "Mr. Markets" bouts of insanity as an indication of Tesla's worth.

 

[MXWing]

This has been a big blow to shorts. YUGE. Those that remain short don't comprehend the implications. And its only the beginning.

Fixed your last sentence.