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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I've been reading up on the recent lawsuit against Sterling Anderson, Aurora, and Chris Urmson.

This case is being litigated by John Hueston, an LA area attorney who has been named California Lawyer of the Year TWICE.

"He doesn't just win. He destroys." Los Angeles Times.

Anyway, this is a disgusting series of events. Quite unfair that Tesla's confidential data regarding Autopilot has been breached. Seems like the damages sought by Tesla could be immense but I'm only speculating. Aurora should add this to their list of funding needs.

The big question is this. What OEM would buy or form a collaborating with Aurora knowing that they are being sued by Tesla over stolen intellectual property? Traditional car companies are stupid, but not that stupid.

Love it.
John C. Hueston | Hueston Hennigan LLP

This was guy lead prosecutor vs Enron's Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling (CEO and COO). I think it's fair to assume that Mr. Anderson will be busy with other things than his startup in the coming months.
 
I haven't seen comment here other than question I posted last night, but it looks like there was a substantial price increase yesterday on Model S, even in USA (we knew there would be for some other markets, but I didn't know US prices were going up).

Are you sure about this? It seems that the starting price remains at 68K. Was it lower before? The tabulated base price on the right is higher than 68K because it includes leather trim but you can take that off. The destination fee remains the same.
 
I've been thinking since last summer that Tesla could eventually become the next GE, with their hands in everything. On the Panasonic issue, wouldn't buying them render Telsa less able to quickly to react to and implement newer/better battery technology?
I think buying Panasonic is a non-starter. Panasonic is on a good track, but they are a commodity producer. They should expect more consistent, but less spectacular earnings and growth versus Tesla. Part of TSLA's problem as a stock is that it is these different entities and no one knows how to value them. The amateurs on this site probably put more collective time into analyzing the company than the pros (cause we are part of a cult). If we Tesla cult people are correct (after Model 3 we can graduate to a religious group and attendant tax advantages), TM will have different margins then the rest of the auto industry. The software solutions in the cars will drive margins and the Tesla network has the potential to be worth more than car sales. The higher risk and higher margins should accrue to Tesla Energy as well. Tesla solar is a wildcard.
I could be wrong and Elon tends to see things the rest of us do not. I think the smaller margins of Panasonic would be a negative to TSLA valuation though, so I think a partnership remains more effective.
 
I'm happy to admit, I'm relatively new to the investing world - but being the information sponge I am, I think I've picked up a decent understanding of the workings of it, especially as it pertains to TSLA, the only stock I'm significantly invested in, and the only one I'm convinced beyond any shadow of a doubt still has up to a 10x valuation increase or more in store in the years to come.

To anyone like the majority of the people who've been paying attention on the board here, nothing has really changed about the wisdom of investing in TSLA at any point in the last 8 months. TSLA's value is almost entirely tied up in Model 3, to the point where nearly everything happening day-to-day right now doesn't matter at all.

Through the fall, while we were on the slide down to 180, all these analysts start cutting price targets and advocating selling. Now that we've had the meteoric rise of the last 2 months, they're starting to about face and raise price targets and advocate buying.

No wonder the unwashed masses that just blindly follow these idiots frequently lose money!

I don't know if we continue up from here to ATH and beyond, but I do know that buying anytime in November or December was a substantially better idea than buying now, and that ought to have been blindingly obvious to anyone who knew what they were talking about then. I considered utilizing a large-for-me line of credit I have access to in order to back up the truck even more than I already had. I chose not to, because I don't like being indebted, but it was a good idea, the profits would have outstripped the interest costs hugely.


I think buying now is the perfect time. I did in fact make a large purchase at around these levels. Just slightly lower. If we think it has a 10X return ahead, if not more, are we going to wait around for a major announcement that propels stock ahead by 25%?
 
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I think buying Panasonic is a non-starter. Panasonic is on a good track, but they are a commodity producer. They should expect more consistent, but less spectacular earnings and growth versus Tesla. Part of TSLA's problem as a stock is that it is these different entities and no one knows how to value them. The amateurs on this site probably put more collective time into analyzing the company than the pros (cause we are part of a cult). If we Tesla cult people are correct (after Model 3 we can graduate to a religious group and attendant tax advantages), TM will have different margins then the rest of the auto industry. The software solutions in the cars will drive margins and the Tesla network has the potential to be worth more than car sales. The higher risk and higher margins should accrue to Tesla Energy as well. Tesla solar is a wildcard.
I could be wrong and Elon tends to see things the rest of us do not. I think the smaller margins of Panasonic would be a negative to TSLA valuation though, so I think a partnership remains more effective.
Tesla is all about vertical integration. They also don't like all the red tape around partnerships/joint ventures (of which there is a ton for Panasonic)--see the rationale for the SCTY deal. Finally, they see a ton of value in Panasonic's tech and have brought them in to every bit of manufacturing they are doing, even where it seems awkward (in Buffalo, combining with Silveo tech).

I think this deal happens once Tesla is big enough to absorb. Could be a precursor to taking Panasonic out of the broader consumer space to focus on cars/solar or getting Tesla into the broader consumer space.
 
Are you sure about this? It seems that the starting price remains at 68K. Was it lower before? The tabulated base price on the right is higher than 68K because it includes leather trim but you can take that off. The destination fee remains the same.
I'm in Michigan and have the United States selected. It's showing $71,300 Model S 60 base.
Edit: sorry, you're right. It's defaulting to leather now.
 

Thanks. This is an example of why the most hopeful among my nervous-nelly circle of friends thinks business arguments will prevail on Trump in the end. It is pretty clear manufacturers at the level of big auto do not like dealing with a variety of different state regulations. The California waver on emissions has become, in effect, a national standard so probably should be protected as well.

Trump is a developer and TV personality by background with international expertise and in the latter, mostly about branding issues. I doubt he has any formal background in international economics nor close friends who influence him in a nuanced direction on such matters. Not having the baggage of an in-depth policy platform before entering politics, like the more traditional candidates—especially Clinton—he has not explored the implications of his campaign promises. The idea of a specific tax on Mexican imports illustrates my point. Aside from tangling with the World Trade Organization and NAFTA, which may have other positive attributes than he anticipated, there is the likely retaliation by Mexico. Eventually even consumers might wake up to the fact as to why prices have risen.

I'm not a tax maven, of course, but many here are and I would like discussion of the Republican proposal already in Congress to have a unified policy on all imports. Admittedly most of my sources have the potential for progressive bias, but I've read the Reeps are proposing something similar to most other countries. Is it like a value added tax? Or is that a separate issue?

On the job creation angle as well as wealth inequality, I suspect the problems are due to our tax structure. It makes no sense having a tax code which favors job creation overseas by manufacturers. That made sense when we wanted to spread the imperialistic benefits of the Liberal International Economic Order, but that is now a fait accompli with possibly the only exception being North Korea (apologies, I mean its Peoples' Republic of). On wealth inequality we might see movement on the clear advantages given to fund managers, carried interest. Though he's protected by the ex post facto clause of the Constitution, it is unlikely Trump would be open to eliminating the loss carried forward of nearly a billion dollars which came about because of bankruptcies where he had already drained the companies of cash, . (Sometimes there are examples of billionaire turncoats as illustrated by Roosevelt's appointment of Joe Kennedy to head the SEC.)

Just as Ford and companies would like to have a uniform set of laws the real problem of international tax law is probably lack of uniformity among nations. It might be nice to have a uniform tax law for multinational companies across the world thus clearing up the problem of stranded profits. I also abhor the competition by states and cities/counties for investment under domestic law. Even at the termite level we see undue competition for tax benefits.

It just seems to me one should not seek jobs or make investments based on tax considerations. That's kind of a trader's game irrelevant to the matter of real resource allocation like jobs, where located, efficiency, and true costs. Governments should get out of that game. They'll never match the innovation of financial entrepreneurs, or is the phrase an oxymoron?

Buffet has already said this more elegantly and with a bit more authority.
 
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Thanks. This is an example of why the most hopeful among my nervous-nelly circle of friends thinks business arguments will prevail on Trump in the end. It is pretty clear manufacturers at the level of big auto do not like dealing with a variety of different state regulations. The California waver on emissions has become, in effect, a national standard so probably should be protected as well.

Trump is a developer and TV personality by background with international expertise and in the latter, mostly about branding issues. I doubt he has any formal background in international economics nor close friends who influence him in a nuanced direction on such matters. Not having the baggage of an in-depth policy platform before entering politics, like the more traditional candidates—especially Clinton—he has not explored the implications of his campaign promises. The idea of a specific tax on Mexican imports illustrates my point. Aside from tangling with the World Trade Organization and NAFTA, which may have other positive attributes than he anticipated, there is the likely retaliation by Mexico. Eventually even consumers might wake up to the fact as to why prices have risen.

I'm not a tax maven, of course, but many here are and I would like discussion of the Republican proposal already in Congress to have a unified policy on all imports. Admittedly most of my sources have the potential for progressive bias, but I've read the Reeps are proposing something similar to most other countries. Is it like a value added tax? Or is that a separate issue?

On the job creation angle as well as wealth inequality, I suspect the problems are due to our tax structure. It makes no sense having a tax code which favors job creation overseas by manufacturers. That made sense when we wanted to spread the imperialistic benefits of the Liberal International Economic Order, but that is now a fait accompli with possibly the only exception being North Korea (apologies, I mean its Peoples' Republic of). On wealth inequality we might see movement on the clear advantages given to fund managers, carried interest. Though he's protected by the ex post facto clause of the Constitution, it is unlikely Trump would be open to eliminating the loss carried forward of nearly a billion dollars which came about because of bankruptcies where he had already drained the companies of cash, . (Sometimes there are examples of billionaire turncoats as illustrated by Roosevelt's appointment of Joe Kennedy to head the SEC.)

Just as Ford and companies would like to have a uniform set of laws the real problem of international tax law is probably lack of uniformity among nations. It might be nice to have a uniform tax law for multinational companies across the world thus clearing up the problem of stranded profits. I also abhor the competition by states and cities/counties for investment under domestic law. Even at the termite level we see undue competition for tax benefits.

It just seems to me one should not seek jobs or make investments based on tax considerations. That's kind of a trader's game irrelevant to the matter of real resource allocation like jobs, where located, efficiency, and true costs. Governments should get out of that game. They'll never match the innovation of financial entrepreneurs, or is the phrase an oxymoron?

Buffet has already said this more elegantly and with a bit more authority.

This isn't about California only rules, ford is complaining about US Cafe standards because they are too inept to invest in technology and make the grade. They would rather stick with old, polluting technology and forego any actual leadership.

Yep business. Business as usual
 
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Nearly 100% sure oil prices and demand for Solar will skyrocket in the near future due to Trump's policies, especially if he follows through on his comments about import duties on oil from OPEC countries. This should be interesting. His actions might not cause oil prices to fall much, but it will likely cause the price of gasoline to increase a lot.

No Saudi Oil Says Trump; Saudi Arabia Fires Back
 
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Nearly 100% sure oil prices and demand for Solar will skyrocket in the near future due to Trump's policies, especially if he follows through on his comments about import duties on oil from OPEC countries. This should be interesting. His actions might not cause oil prices to fall much, but it will likely cause the price of gasoline to increase a lot.

No Saudi Oil Says Trump; Saudi Arabia Fires Back
There will be interesting market action if this is really new, or just re release from old campaign promises. If so, it would get oil prices to rise, increase us oil extraction--based on higher prices, and make tesla more valuable as well as solar. So much winning...
 
I'm not a tax maven, of course, but many here are and I would like discussion of the Republican proposal already in Congress to have a unified policy on all imports. Admittedly most of my sources have the potential for progressive bias, but I've read the Reeps are proposing something similar to most other countries. Is it like a value added tax? Or is that a separate issue?

There is ambiguity about what is being proposed. Perhaps there is even ambiguity among those proposing it.

In one potential incarnation, it is basically a value added tax (VAT), with any exporter such as Tesla not charging VAT for exports. The expectation is that the product will be charged VAT at the importing country.

Bloomberg has an article about the ambiguity.

How a Clever GOP Tax Plan Managed to Baffle Everyone
 
There is ambiguity about what is being proposed. Perhaps there is even ambiguity among those proposing it.

In one potential incarnation, it is basically a value added tax (VAT), with any exporter such as Tesla not charging VAT for exports. The expectation is that the product will be charged VAT at the importing country.

Bloomberg has an article about the ambiguity.

How a Clever GOP Tax Plan Managed to Baffle Everyone

I suffer from leaking brain due to senility. I must have read something like this earlier but got a lot more out of your link. Many thanks. I would have ranked it funny as well.

Along the same lines as what I attributed to Buffet in my post referenced, readers might take a look at a video at Davos which deals with a number off issues and interpretations of the meaning of populism and the threat to global order today.


Christine Lagarde is always brilliant. On at least two occasions during that forum at Davos, Larry Summers displays his reputation as America's brightest economist. It is a rare look at some really superior minds interacting with each other with a great moderator.
 
The big question is this. What OEM would buy or form a collaborating with Aurora knowing that they are being sued by Tesla over stolen intellectual property? Traditional car companies are stupid, but not that stupid.
With this lawsuit out now, no one is going to touch Aurora with a ten foot pole. Well, except maybe a company that thought they were extra-judicial and had a bad track record with IP. Hmmm... FF?
 
Oh, and about all this nonsense with "Is Musk calling himself CEO of Tesla or SpaceX when dealing with the new administration?" He's officially both.

Please reference the transcript of White House press secretary Sean Spicer announcing the meeting a few days ago, the only official communication on Musk's involvement so far in the adminstration:
White House briefing by Sean Spicer - full transcript, Jan. 23, 2017
"Business leaders who attended included Michael Dell, founder and CEO of Dell; Jeff Fettig, the CEO of Whirlpool; Mark Fields, the CEO of Ford; Alex Gorsky, the CEO of and Johnson and Johnson; Marillyn Hewson, the CEO of Lockheed Martin; Klaus Kleinfeld, the CEO of Arconic; Andrew Liveris, the CEO of Dow; Maro Longi, the CEO of U.S. Steel; Elon Musk of SpaceX and Tesla; Kevin Plank of Under Armour; Mark Sutton of International Paper; Wendell Weeks, the CEO of Corning; Chief of Staff Reince Priebus; Chief Strategist Steve Bannon; the vice president’s chief of staff, Josh Pitcock; and senior adviser Steven Miller."
 
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