2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[stealthology]

The big Tesla short: Why these Aussie fundies are shorting Elon Musk

 

[Stretch2727]

Now that Tesla has completed the capital raise does anyone know the total dollar amount of all the equity raises? (excluding debt and convertibles issued.) Is this the 7.7B paid in capital from the 10K + the current raise. Anyway to get this number from the financial statements?

 

[Intl Professor]

Maybe if Trump hands over control of infrastructure planning to Elon?

Couldn't agree more with the post in general, except this last sentence. I am greedy so want all of Musk's attention to his businesses, participating in government only to vote, contribute, and invest a bit of his time his exalted reputation permits.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I guess, people were getting the S75 at the S60 price anyway. With the recent price increase of MS60 to $68k, it became even less appealing. What's old is new, and new is old again. MS 60 comes, goes, comes back, changes prices, goes. Random changes go on and on. What exactly is the motivation here?

Model S is being re-positioned up the market, this was to be expected with Model 3 coming in.
Other improvements to Model S will probably coincide with Model 3 release, to further separate them in their market segments. 75/90 may dissapear too, with 80 or 85 being offered at the price of 75. Maybe better interiors, additional features or software services etc. Streaming could be 'for pay' feature in M3. Many ways to skin the cat, but MS does not need to serve all segments it's serving now...

 

[Waiting4M3]

Cancelling the Model S 60 creates an "order now or lose this opportunity" scenario for those considering a new Model S but don't need the extra range. You will see an increase in Model S 60 orders as the April 17 deadline nears. It will be similar to the pre-announced disappearance of free supercharging. Tesla knows how to manage catalysts

Any thoughts on the significance of the Apr 17 time frame? If there is more demand for 75kwh than 60kwh and the margin is better on the 75kwh, why wait till Apr? If they want to upsell some potential M3 buyers to the MS, they can wait much longer since M3 is not available until at earliest Q3, and anyone ordering now won't see one any time soon.

...Twitter will be a credible way for government leaders to communicate with the public once Twitter figures out a way to eliminate sock puppets, paid trolls, and bots (of which there are a lot).

... and staying afloat financially

 

[Waiting4M3]

Maybe this is some bizarre form for contango caused by bets that Trump wouldn't win the Election? Maybe a lot of options writers went bust when the market fell after the election, only to rebound and continue to rally for 3-4 months?

Or maybe this is being caused by Trump telling Goldman Sachs to do X, and since the GOP has no desire to enforce SEC regulations (because they are regulations), no-one is speaking up?

Trump's main campaign backer is Robert Mercer, who is a computer scientist at IBM in the 70-80s, and went to a hedge fund in 93, and became CEO in 2009. They averaged 39% return per year from 1989-2006. I can only guess but I think Mercer's computer skill probably helped a lot. The Mercers are responsible for putting KellyAnn Conway and Steve Bannon on Trump's team. Fast forward to 2017, I'm not saying the Mercer are doing this just to manipulate the market for his hedge fund, but every time Trump tweets something and the market jumps up and down, what's the chance that Mercers would know about it before others?

 

[Snapdragon III]

Any thoughts on the significance of the Apr 17 time frame? If there is more demand for 75kwh than 60kwh and the margin is better on the 75kwh, why wait till Apr? If they want to upsell some potential M3 buyers to the MS, they can wait much longer since M3 is not available until at earliest Q3, and anyone ordering now won't see one any time soon.

I think the timing of getting rid of the 60s has at least a little to do with changing over to the new 21-70 cell format for the model S and X. If the new smallest size is going to be more than 60kwh, then they wouldn't want a bunch of 60 orders in the pipeline, that people would then want to upgrade/change. I also agree with others that this is a good sign that they think they are on track for the model 3, and are proceeding with moving the s even more up market.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think the timing of getting rid of the 60s has at least a little to do with changing over to the new 21-70 cell format for the model S and X. If the new smallest size is going to be more than 60kwh, then they wouldn't want a bunch of 60 orders in the pipeline, that people would then want to upgrade/change. I also agree with others that this is a good sign that they think they are on track for the model 3, and are proceeding with moving the s even more up market.

I thought about the MS/X 2170 conversion also. The M3 has been rumored to have 55kwh and 75kwh tiers. If that's true then the 75kwh will likely be shared with the MS/X, and can be SW limited to 60kwh the same as now, so I can't see any clear constraints along this line.

 

[doctoxics]

I think the timing of getting rid of the 60s has at least a little to do with changing over to the new 21-70 cell format for the model S and X. If the new smallest size is going to be more than 60kwh, then they wouldn't want a bunch of 60 orders in the pipeline, that people would then want to upgrade/change. I also agree with others that this is a good sign that they think they are on track for the model 3, and are proceeding with moving the s even more up market.

Unless there is new information, all of Gigafactory 1 production of 2170 cells will be for Tesla energy and Model 3. Models S and X will continue to use 18650 cells manufactured abroad.

 

[larmor]

Any thoughts on the significance of the Apr 17 time frame? If there is more demand for 75kwh than 60kwh and the margin is better on the 75kwh, why wait till Apr? If they want to upsell some potential M3 buyers to the MS, they can wait much longer since M3 is not available until at earliest Q3, and anyone ordering now won't see one any time soon.

... and staying afloat financially

Totally off topic: snap is going to make money (is making money?) and the premise of their platform is that their content is supposed to be transient. Twitter has one verified user, the head of the US-- should be a way to monetize this. But then, i must be wrong, since the market doesn't believe an EV auto company, doesn't believe in transitioning to cheaper and cleaner energy solutions...

 

[Snapdragon III]

I thought about the MS/X 2170 conversion also. The M3 has been rumored to have 55kwh and 75kwh tiers. If that's true then the 75kwh will likely be shared with the MS/X, and can be SW limited to 60kwh the same as now, so I can't see any clear constraints along this line.

Maybe the plan is to move the S up market and make it 85, with a software limited 70 version. With cheaper cells from the Gigafactory they might be able to keep the price close to the current 60/75 points. If they did this, anyone with a 60 in the build pipeline would definitely want to change their order, which would be a pain in the neck. For people who had 75's in the build pipeline, they could just deliver the new batteries software limited to 75, with a fair option for further upgrade to 85kwh.

 

[dc_h]

Trump's main campaign backer is Robert Mercer, who is a computer scientist at IBM in the 70-80s, and went to a hedge fund in 93, and became CEO in 2009. They averaged 39% return per year from 1989-2006. I can only guess but I think Mercer's computer skill probably helped a lot. The Mercers are responsible for putting KellyAnn Conway and Steve Bannon on Trump's team. Fast forward to 2017, I'm not saying the Mercer are doing this just to manipulate the market for his hedge fund, but every time Trump tweets something and the market jumps up and down, what's the chance that Mercers would know about it before others?

Assumes Trump knows what he's going to tweet before he tweets?

 

[EinSV]

Phasing out the S60 is not a big surprise but I am a little surprised they are doing it so soon. If they maintain the mid-April cutoff for S60 orders that would be a very strong statement of confidence that they can pull off a July-ish Model 3 launch and begin ramping production quickly to get through the backlog of employee orders.

I am also really surprised that July production start seems to be transitioning from a "fake" deadline to something like an actual possibility, albeit with lots of caveats still. I assumed that a smooth launch would have the initial production beginning in about September.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Unless there is new information, all of Gigafactory 1 production of 2170 cells will be for Tesla energy and Model 3. Models S and X will continue to use 18650 cells manufactured abroad.

I don't have any great insight, but my speculation is that they will transition soon. Here are my 3 reasons.
1. The 2170 cell is supposed to be better, and they have said the Model S and X will get the best flagship tech. To me that means they will not have inferior batteries with less energy density.
2. It seems more efficient/lower cost if they can use the same cells, and hopefully the same packs/modules for all the cars.
3. I thought I saw it mentioned in this forum on one of the unverified notes of the offering conference call that came out yesterday.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Assumes Trump knows what he's going to tweet before he tweets?

Funny you should mention that. One firm that Mercer invested in, Cambridge Analytica, supposed used an algorithm developed by a Cambridge researcher to analyze people's FB likes and used it for targeted campaigning. According to a report they claim that everything that Trump said is planned, I'm guessing including the tweets, they are targeted at a small audience who has a high chance of turning out to vote for Trump on that particular message.

 

[doctoxics]

I don't have any great insight, but my speculation is that they will transition soon. Here are my 3 reasons.
1. The 2170 cell is supposed to be better, and they have said the Model S and X will get the best flagship tech. To me that means they will not have inferior batteries with less energy density.
2. It seems more efficient/lower cost if they can use the same cells, and hopefully the same packs/modules for all the cars.
3. I thought I saw it mentioned in this forum on one of the unverified notes of the offering conference call that came out yesterday.

It would be nice to see the 2170 cells in Models S and X. However, to fill the ~400,000 Model 3 reservations will require ~65 kwh/car times 400,000 cars or 26 gwh. Add Tesla energy and new orders for Model 3 that will accelerate in coming months, and you can see that all of Gigafactory 1 capacity has already been allocated. Elon estimated that Gigafactory 1 would reach 35 gwh/year 2170 cell production late in 2018 and 100 gwh/year on or shortly after 2020. He also estimated Model 3 production at one million by 2020 (65 kwh x 1,000,000 = 65 gwh). The original plan was to use cells made abroad for Tesla Energy, but this plan may have changed with the development of Power pack II and Power wall II. Both are currently made with 2170 cells manufactured in Gigafactory 1, but 2170 cell production in the Gigafactory is scheduled to switch over to Model 3 in April.

 

[MitchJi]

The original plan was to use cells made abroad for Tesla Energy, but this plan may have changed with the development of Power pack II and Power wall II.

The current plan is to use the GF Cells for TE and the M3. Elon and JB both repeated that the GF can do that.

Both are currently made with 2170 cells manufactured in Gigafactory 1, but 2170 cell production in the Gigafactory is scheduled to switch over to Model 3 in April.

That's not correct. The Gigafactory is scheduled to add enough capacity to take care of Model 3 in the Spring.

 

[scaesare]

I thought about the MS/X 2170 conversion also. The M3 has been rumored to have 55kwh and 75kwh tiers. If that's true then the 75kwh will likely be shared with the MS/X, and can be SW limited to 60kwh the same as now, so I can't see any clear constraints along this line.

I'm not sure if you meant share the capacity number or the actual pack, but the latter is not likely given that the have different physical footprints.

 

[Intl Professor]

Trump's main campaign backer is Robert Mercer, who is a computer scientist at IBM in the 70-80s, and went to a hedge fund in 93, and became CEO in 2009. They averaged 39% return per year from 1989-2006. I can only guess but I think Mercer's computer skill probably helped a lot. The Mercers are responsible for putting KellyAnn Conway and Steve Bannon on Trump's team. Fast forward to 2017, I'm not saying the Mercer are doing this just to manipulate the market for his hedge fund, but every time Trump tweets something and the market jumps up and down, what's the chance that Mercers would know about it before others?

Thanks.

I'm always curious about the really big money that influences presidential candidates. David Rockefeller, for example, is responsible for Jimmy Carter since his Trilateral Commission offered many members as key advisors to Carter, including Walter Mondial and, of course, Carter himself. One of the payoffs was getting the Shah to a hospital where only U.S. treatment was available. (A surgeon was flown in from Canada to perform a gall bladder removal.) There's a rumor (I've only read one article about it and can't remember where) that the Riadys were behind the deal that got Webster Hubbell 21 months in jail, after a promised $650,000 payment from them, instead of Hillary Clinton his assistant in an over billing scandal at the Rose Law firm. That scandal was settled by a rumored deal between the Riadys and the Koch brothers who helped it die and a clear case of felony contributions to campaigns by Koch, then illegal, was dropped by Justice. She also got some flack when she was Secretary of State over waiver of a visa granted to a convicted felon, one of the Riadys.

Your post mentions Mercer. Sounds correct and I'm not denying your tip about Bannon and the alt-fact queen, but do you have a source or other reasons for speculation? I have an academic interest beyond the purpose of this thread. Please PM if you have anything to add.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Weekend O.T.

Clarity fills up in California for $80 for 366 miles of range. Or 21.9 cents per mile.
Honda hiding the price of the car and fuel in an all inclusive subsidized lease.

Honda has jumped the shark with that design. The bizzaro mess of angles and lines is enough to ensure that they won't sell many of these, regardless of the Fuel Cell or not.