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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Employees are vested with stock, its in their interest to leak the ramp is improving.
So far nothing out there. They should be first to notify.
They probably aren't heavily invested in options, and not that worried about the stock going up a few weeks earlier than it otherwise would. I, on the other hand, would love to hear about the ramp a little bit early.
 
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Nah, that's not a bottle neck. Just another excuse. imho.

This is how the GF cell output should look like, IF there was any intention of ramping up M3 according to the latest moved goal post of 20k M3 in Dec. I assume 2 months for cell aging and 75 KWh packs for long range M3s. Instead, we hear about 'ramping up for cells' when putting up 4-5 Powerpack u-grids, which are cells for just about 10-12 LR M3s in total.
M3 production is behind schedule; so there should be few hundred MWh of excess cells lying around at the GF. Tesla shouldn't be needing to 'ramp up' to supply few hundred kWh for these side projects.

Cells for Powerwall/Powerpack are supposedly different chemistry from those for vehicles, so they are likely made on different lines (otherwise you'd have to stop the line, clean it out, then start again, in order to switch back and forth) - while Model 3 cells may or may not be having production issues, their issues (or lack thereof) do not necessarily translate into issues (or lack thereof) of ramping TE cells. Plus, it might just be that for whatever reason TE had some other constraint and thus they had slowed the ramp on the TE side previously.

Of course if, say, the supplier who makes the cans for both kinds of cells, or the caps, etc, were at fault... then they have to pick and choose whether they build Model 3 cells or TE cells.

Besides, I think the talk of ramping up for cells was in the context of building out many microgrids across many islands, essentially making the legacy infrastructure near (but not quite) obsolete.
 
^ I agree. People can criticize this post all they want if it makes them feel better, but as someone who believes in Tesla's future and had been heavily invested in them for 3+yrs, the reasons above are why I finally pulled the plug....for now. There is just an overwhelming amount negativity directed towards Tesla at the moment and much of it is justifiable. They truly are missing their "Iphone" moment with the M3 delays. From early reports the M3 looks like an absolute winner, but at the moment it is still essentially vaporware. In my opinion it doesn't matter how many cool announcements Elon makes right now, I don't see the stock price going up until they start delivering the M3 to customers at a decent rate.
No-one with a brain on this forum takes the first post from a new account with any seriousness.

Go back and look at Q4 of 2015. The entire quarter. For stockholders, it was a mind-numbingly-stressful quarter of waiting for Model X's to get delivered, to get quality problems ironed out, and so on. It has all been taken care of. Right around two years later, we are seeing the same thing with the Model 3 - except in this case, the ramp-up is definitely occurring more quickly.

Whatever an "iPhone moment" is - who cares if Tesla misses that. They produce and deliver more and more cars every quarter. The company is growing. No-one has anything that touches the Model 3 - or their entire range of cars, for that matter.
 
A reminder to everyone who is being disappointed by the Model 3 ramp so far. A little more than a year ago, they decided to accelerate the ramp plan by two years. We're not late at all if everything was going with the original plan. Sure they look missing the target now but making this change boosted the stock over 300 and got them an unbelievable bond issue just a few months ago. This "over-promising" strategy worked out perfectly from their point of view. And this was not the first time they used this kind of strategy to do this and I doubt this would be the last.

The alternative (500k in 2020) is not likely get TSLA over 300 at this time. Think about this for a moment.

For anyone who's been closely following the company and stock for more than a year, this is like TSLA 101.

Yes. There is essentially two ways to look at Tesla and Spacex (and Elon in general).
1) Do they hit the insanely hard goals Elon sets for himself and his companies?
2) What did they accomplish relative to competitors in these time frames.

Even "mistakes" like the Model X, where actually executed in a faster than average time-frame (including delays) relative to industry standards for bringing to market a similarly challenging product from the ground up. It only seems like a huge mistake if going by the time-frame Elon thought was possible.
 
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No-one with a brain on this forum takes the first post from a new account with any seriousness.

Go back and look at Q4 of 2015. The entire quarter. For stockholders, it was a mind-numbingly-stressful quarter of waiting for Model X's to get delivered, to get quality problems ironed out, and so on. It has all been taken care of. Right around two years later, we are seeing the same thing with the Model 3 - except in this case, the ramp-up is definitely occurring more quickly.

Whatever an "iPhone moment" is - who cares if Tesla misses that. They produce and deliver more and more cars every quarter. The company is growing. No-one has anything that touches the Model 3 - or their entire range of cars, for that matter.
Easy big fella. I don't care if you don't take me seriously. I was just pointing out why I felt the stock price is dipping at the moment. I do expect the stock to go up once deliveries of the 3 are rolling out to customers. I just have to decide when to jump back in.
 
Looks like what I feared is true. SolarCity is just dead weight for tesla. The best things to do was not to merge. The second best thing is to clean house.
I think it is too soon to make that call. It may not be successful, of course. I think we will probably be better informed in another year. It will take st least that long to find out.
 
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Looks like what I feared is true. SolarCity is just dead weight for tesla. The best things to do was not to merge. The second best thing is to clean house.
Financially it's about even for now. Yes it is costing Tesla hundreds of millions in additional OpEx and interest each Q. But it is also bringing in fresh cash in approximately the same amount each Q by monetizing the existing solar lease. It's an internal source of capital for Tesla.

From last Q's letter:

"Additionally, in Q2, we monetized a portfolio of already deployed solar leases by selling an equity interest in those leases for gross proceeds of $313 million"
 
^ I agree. People can criticize this post all they want if it makes them feel better, but as someone who believes in Tesla's future and had been heavily invested in them for 3+yrs, the reasons above are why I finally pulled the plug....for now. There is just an overwhelming amount negativity directed towards Tesla at the moment and much of it is justifiable. They truly are missing their "Iphone" moment with the M3 delays. From early reports the M3 looks like an absolute winner, but at the moment it is still essentially vaporware. In my opinion it doesn't matter how many cool announcements Elon makes right now, I don't see the stock price going up until they start delivering the M3 to customers at a decent rate.
What delay. They are still about 9 months AHEAD of their original Model 3 schedule. And I love the irony of someone joining the board today saying they pulled the plug for now... Yes the stock is down today, and might even touch 300. But Tesla is on the cusp of starting delivery of the M3. If you can't wait for that I'm guessing GM stock can be had for a steal today.

Cobos
 
What delay. They are still about 9 months AHEAD of their original Model 3 schedule. And I love the irony of someone joining the board today saying they pulled the plug for now... Yes the stock is down today, and might even touch 300. But Tesla is on the cusp of starting delivery of the M3. If you can't wait for that I'm guessing GM stock can be had for a steal today.

Cobos
One reason the stock has propelled this year is the aggressive schedule. Now if you say they are ahead compared to the original schedule, then the stock should fall compared to the recent highs?
 

We are at a critical time in history. If leave it unchecked, AI will quickly surpass human in terms of brain power, and right after that point, AI will become thousands millions times more powerful than human brain, this vertical phase may only take weeks or months. At that time AI will work on AI, we become ants.

SoftBank CEO Son thinks robots will never surpass human in imagination. That is totally wrong. There is nothing so special that AI can not do regarding imagination. Wait after their IQ reaches 800.

Elon fully understands the risk of AI.
 
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A reminder to everyone who is being disappointed by the Model 3 ramp so far. A little more than a year ago, they decided to accelerate the ramp plan by two years. We're not late at all if everything was going with the original plan. ...
The alternative (500k in 2020) is not likely get TSLA over 300 at this time. Think about this for a moment.
For anyone who's been closely following the company and stock for more than a year, this is like TSLA 101.

A dozen law firms are thinking about this already, how Tesla artificially hyped up the stock with misleading and false promises. Saying that this behavior is TSLA 101 may not be helpful in the courtroom.
If there was any plan to make 100k-200k M3 in 2017, the GF should be running at 1.5 GWh/mo right now. Instead, it's probably a few MWh/month.

One reason the stock has propelled this year is the aggressive schedule. Now if you say they are ahead compared to the original schedule, then the stock should fall compared to the recent highs?
The lawyers will have a feast on these. But nothing to worry. Our resident expert lawyer has given his/her verdict already, All current and future lawsuits against Tesla must be frivolous.
 
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