In my feeble recollection, he tried hard to sell his warez and expertise to Tesla but they didn't bite.
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In my feeble recollection, he tried hard to sell his warez and expertise to Tesla but they didn't bite.
I disagree that this example shows anything about Tesla investor communication. As I posted in your survey thread, Tesla has made very clear that this goal is 500,000 vehicles produced in 2018, not a 500,000 vehicle run rate.
If there were any doubts about that they should have been put to rest by the Q3 2016 shareholder letter (which investors should have read).
Capital expenditures remain on plan to help us reach our goal of producing 500,000 vehicles in 2018. Tesla - Current ReportTesla - Current Report
Also, interpreting the statement to mean a 500,000 vehicle run rate makes no sense considering Tesla has also expressed a goal of producing 10K Model 3s per week by the end of 2018, which is about a 500,000 Model 3/year run rate. Obviously, Tesla plans to also produce Model S and X which will bring the 2018 run rate goal over 600,000, although I don't think I've heard them state a total run rate target for 2018.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this; I very much appreciate it. The following is my response:
Ask The Audience: What Did Elon Mean? - 2nd Edition
We've got an old GM factory sitting collecting dust in Janesville, but somehow I doubt they'd be interested given its age (built in 1919) and other issues like...
That said, they could probably get it for cheap, and there's a plenty large workforce available nearby.
Edit: Buyer was found in September - "Janesville city officials announced Friday that a St. Louis-based redevelopment company has signed a contract to buy the vacant General Motors assembly plant."
Edit2: "Overall, Price said it would be several years before the project is finished and new development moves in, but they are moving forward."
http://www.channel3000.com/news/mon...es-company-planning-to-buy-gm-plant/621357581
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No offense, but I think the unscientific poll results are meaningless, especially to the extent they supposedly reflect on Tesla's investor communications. There is always room for improvement, but the example you cite is not one of them IMO. Tesla made very clear what they meant in a written communication to shareholders one quarter before the call you reference.
If shareholders choose not to read the letters or forget what's in them that's fine but that's on them, not on Tesla.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
No offense taken. Let me clarify your position in my mind. You're saying that the guidance is 500,000 cars total produced in 2018, right? If so, I actually agree with you, but many others who believe the guidance is run-rate for exit 2018 have passionately criticized that position severely for being naive.... and that's my point. My full response explains this.
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Tesla has said 500,000 produced (as in the letter I quoted) but I haven't dug around to see if they've ever mentioned 500,000 deliveries.
And sure, many people seem to believe that only someone who is naive, crazy, stupid, insane, pollyannaish, koolaid drinking, wishful thinking or a cheerleader actually believes Tesla has a shot at doing that. They are entitled to their opinion of course and may even turn out to be right, but that's not a communication issue.
How do you reconcile all this professed transparency to:
a. Refusing to report monthly car deliveries;
b. Bobbing and weaving to avoid answering germane questions on conference calls; and
c. NEVER giving forward guidance about the bottom line since the IPO nearly 7.5 years ago?
I disagree that refusing to disclose relevant metrics to inform share buying and selling decisions is in "the best interests" of investors (and traders). YMMV.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla has said 500,000 produced (as in the letter I quoted) but I haven't dug around to see if they've ever mentioned 500,000 deliveries.
And sure, many people seem to believe that only someone who is naive, crazy, stupid, insane, pollyannaish, koolaid drinking, wishful thinking or a cheerleader actually believes Tesla has a shot at doing that. They are entitled to their opinion of course and may even turn out to be right, but that's not a communication issue.
I agree with your interpretation of the guidance, but not with the statement "but that's not a communication issue." If dozens of people vote (even if it is unscientific), and the results show dead-even confusion, it doesn't help to assume that half of the voters are being unreasonable, but it is a sign that the communication has room to improve. What you and I think is obvious is irrelevant. What's important is how the message is coming across.
Paracelsus
Active Member
Sometimes we focus closely on the tea leaves and forget that Tesla's talent and prospects are so great that the company is in essence always in start-up mode. That makes predictions extremely difficult, especially with timing. When it is no longer evolving predictions will be easier, as it is for ICE companies today. In the long run it is easy to predict they are in deep sugar and will lag in changing because of their success in predictability—short term. I guess what I'm saying is already well known. Tesla is not yet mature, so a safe long term bet. Our wealth manager lol when I suggested he should buy as a hedge stock.
Bluntly stated, investors are customers too. Thus clear and unambiguous statements are good, ambiguous and/or unclear statements are not good. If that is true, Tesla does have much improvement to make on all customer communication. Frankly, as enthusiastically pro-Tesla as many of us are, it's almost impossible to suggest they're doing a good job with either customers for their products or buyers of their securities.
The current good sales results for both end products and securities is in spite of poor communication, not because of it.
Now back to my more traditional role as a bull.
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Buy Tesla into earnings even though it will miss estimates: Analyst
"Don't miss the 'forest' for the trees when considering near-term Model 3 production constraints," the firm's analyst writes
"Don't miss the 'forest' for the trees when considering near-term Model 3 production constraints," the firm's analyst writes
Buddyroe
Active Member
Does anyone know of a good source to determine different car models' resale value? I'm asking because I have been trying to buy my wife a Model S for about 4 years now. And I truly scour the different websites for a car for her (TMC, Autotrader, cars.com, ebay, craigslist, etc). I believe I have seen the ad for 95% of every Tesla for sale. The reason I am asking about the resale value is because over the last year, I have seen very little depreciation at the bottom end for the Model S. Last October, the best price I could find on an 85, still under warranty was about $50k. That number is still pretty much the best you'll find - maybe it has lowered to $46-48k, but that's about it.
I'm just surprised that KBB and Edmunds haven't written more about how well the Model S has held its value - particularly the 4 and 5 year old cars. I mean, we're talking 50% retained value for 4 and 5 year old cars. For comparison, the last update I read for the MB S-Class was 44% at 3 years.
I'm just surprised that KBB and Edmunds haven't written more about how well the Model S has held its value - particularly the 4 and 5 year old cars. I mean, we're talking 50% retained value for 4 and 5 year old cars. For comparison, the last update I read for the MB S-Class was 44% at 3 years.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
IMO that's more of an issue with investors trying to "micro manage" Tesla, vs Tesla not having good communication. There are reasons Tesla say what they say. Specifically Tesla has explained the reason for a. As for c, besides guiding gross margin for M3 into 2018, I don't know what people are expecting. As for b, you can call Elon's style Bob and weave, I interpret that as Elon always thinking in terms of a range of possibilities, and adjustments on the fly, to me that's a strength, not a weakness or fault. Tesla has a tough enough time fighting the traditional automakers, oil money paying off biased media, and naysayers on the wallstreet. If you're an investor, the main reason you're investing in Tesla should be because of Elon. If you don't trust Elon you should get out of TSLA, if you do, then get off his back and let him do his job.
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