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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I also have been wondering about this, and would also be interested in any informed opinions/speculation as to why Model 3 LR battery pack production appears to be running into more snags than Powerpack/Powerwall battery pack production, other than a combination of picking the wrong team to work on the problematic portions of the 3 LR pack and bad luck.

I may be mistaken, but how much do we know about the battery pack automation level for S/X ? It may be only partially automated and the non automated tasks can be managed for the volume of their production. Not only is the M3 battery pack substantially reworked (so needs new automation processes, but the automation to produce 10K cars per week is going to be more challenging than what works for 2K/week.
 
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B.S. German engineers still have disciple and pride. They aren't going to quit over working non stop for a month or two in Nevada.
Especially when their Tesla co-workers (and CEO) are working just as hard.
Not only will they not quit. When it is all done they will be a true "band of brothers." Going through something like this together, and ultimately succeeding will do more for integrating Ghrosmann into the Tesla family, and culture than anything else Tesla could have possibly done. The people that will leave, or at least feel left out, are the ones that weren't part of the legendary battle of line 2 at the gigafactory.

WESTMORLAND. O that we now had here
But one ten thousand of those men in England
That do no work to-day!

KING. What's he that wishes so?
My cousin, Westmorland? No, my fair cousin;
If we are mark'd to die, we are enow
To do our country loss; and if to live,
The fewer men, the greater share of honour.
God's will! I pray thee, wish not one man more.
By Jove, I am not covetous for gold,
Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost;
It yearns me not if men my garments wear;
Such outward things dwell not in my desires.
But if it be a sin to covet honour,
I am the most offending soul alive.
No, faith, my coz, wish not a man from England.
God's peace! I would not lose so great an honour
As one man more methinks would share from me
For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more!
Rather proclaim it, Westmorland, through my host,
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This day is call'd the feast of Crispian.
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say "To-morrow is Saint Crispian."
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say "These wounds I had on Crispin's day."
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words—
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
 
In 1945 as kids we were holed up in a somewhat problematic hotel in Venezuela as my Dad was helping to build a new water supply for Caracas. Our breakfast was cornflakes augmented by some "raisin like protein" supplements with wings and six legs. They did not move, however; must have drowned. But I regress again.
 
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The vast majority of modern ICE cars go 100k miles without a major powertrain failure or major repair.

According to Consumer Reports Lexus LS is consistently in the top 3 most reliable cars sold in America. In me experience Lexus LS goes 500k miles without major repairs.

On the other hand, Mercedes S Class is consistently one of the least reliable cars sold in America. Not with major powertrain problems in the first 3 years of ownership but with minor electric motors and electric parts going bad. After that there is no objective reliablitity data just reputation and anecdotal evidence. And yeah, I know a guy who spent $5k on replacing a radiator on an S Class after ~120k miles.

But no one is forcing customers to buy the least reliable cars in class like a Chrysler 200,300 or an S Class. Making gross exagerations on ICEv cost of ownership doesn't convert ICEv owners. They know how much things cost. You can buy a Corolla or LS 460 if you want a reliable ICEv.

I’ve put 60K on my 120K mile new to me A8L. Spent about $3K on maintenance so far (front air suspension, brake, oil change q 15K miles, and HID lights). Will need new tires soon for the coming Chicago winter. Add another $1K so pretty reasonable for a 100K new car price tag.

That stuff doesn’t bother me all that much. It’s actually going to a stupid gas station every 5 days that bothers me the most. Looking for the day I trade it in for a M3 and charge at home.
 
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tesla-model-3-battery-pack-3.jpg

1. Charge port connector 2. Fast charge contactor assembly 3. Coolant line to PCS 4. PCS – Power Conversion System 5. HVC – High Voltage Controller 6. Low voltage connector to HVC from the vehicle 7. 12V output from PCS 8. Positive HV power switch 9. Coolant line to PCS 10. HV connector to cabin heater and compressor 11. Cabin heater, compressor and PCS DC output fuse 12. HV connector to rear drive unit 13. HV pyro fuse 15. HV connector to front drive unit 16. Negative HV power switch 17. Connector for 3 phase AC charging

The M3 pack has many more components than the S/X pack not just cells and cooling.
 
A regional German newspaper reports that the guys from Grohman are helping out at the Gigafactory, they say the production lines from an external supplier don't work as they should, Grohman guys in Nevada go so far and say it's a wreckage or a heap of rubble.
-------------------------------------------------------
So funktionieren wohl gleich mehrere Produktionslinien eines externen Zulieferers nicht so, wie sie sollen. Mitarbeiter vor Ort sprechen gar von einem "Trümmerhaufen". – Quelle: Rettung aus der Eifel: Experten aus Prüm sollen Produktion bei Tesla zum Laufen bringen ©2017
Is this new news though? Seems like we already knew this from the cc.
 
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Tesla made the decision to build fewer S/X this quarter and draw down inventory. Its a prudent business decision to conserve cash. It has nothing to do with demand.

What if demand spikes because of tax credit expiring EOY or even just the thought that it might even if the law does not pass, people won't know until it's too late to order. I think what Elon said is that it would not be easy to increase production on demand because of all the supporting parts like supply chain. It will be interesting to see what they come up with because they have already changed the site to reflect the credit loss at the end of the year. People would literally have to order like now to be certain of delivery.
 
Speculation: The car battery pack has to have more robust cooling/heating capabilities with intervening “venting” elements (sorry don’t know terminology), hence more complicated than the powerpack/wall battery pack—which probably doesn’t have to cycle as much.

I may be mistaken, but how much do we know about the battery pack automation level for S/X ? It may be only partially automated and the non automated tasks can be managed for the volume of their production. Not only is the M3 battery pack substantially reworked (so needs new automation processes, but the automation to produce 10K cars per week is going to be more challenging than what works for 2K/week.

@GoTslaGo, the added complexity of Model 3 packs versus Powerpack/Powerwall might be part of the explanation. Tesla also may have had more time to ramp up the TE packs (not really sure).

In any case, a very rough comparison of installed storage versus delivered Model 3 cars in TE suggests that TE pack production ran at about 6X higher than Model 3 pack production in Q3. Tesla reported 110MWh storage installed and 222 Model 3 deliveries x ~80kWh = 17.8 MWh. It would be better to compare production figures rather than installs/deliveries but AFAIK TE production figures are not available -- I suspect they would show an even bigger advantage to TE due to in-process/transit TE products for South Australia etc.

Will be interesting to see when Model 3 pack production reaches parity with and surpasses TE production, which hopefully will also continue to ramp quickly. Probably soon (Q1 2018 -- possibly earlier).
 
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Somebody pee in your cornflakes today?

A lot of people here seem to have a chip on their shoulder about something.

As a general rule, taking investments personally is a bad idea. At the retail level, individuals with relatively small amounts of shares can do practically nothing to move the market or change the company’s direction.

If people are uncomfortable losing money due to either an unfortunate long or short position, then it’s time to move on. Harping endlessly on why TSLA is still at $X price despite Y event, or why Tesla sucks for Z reason is wasted energy. Better to exit the position and move on.
 
@GoTslaGo, the added complexity of Model 3 packs versus Powerpack/Powerwall might be part of the explanation. Tesla also may have had more time to ramp up the TE packs (not really sure).

In any case, a very rough comparison of installed storage versus delivered Model 3 cars in TE suggests that TE pack production ran at about 6X higher than Model 3 pack production in Q3. Tesla reported 110MWh storage installed and 222 Model 3 deliveries x ~80kWh = 17.8 MWh. It would be better to compare production figures rather than installs/deliveries but AFAIK TE production figures are not available -- I suspect that they would show an even larger advantage to TE due to in-process/transit TE products for South Australia etc.

Will be interesting to see when Model 3 pack production reaches parity with and surpasses TE production, which hopefully will also continue to ramp quickly.

Wonder if part of the rapidity of the TE install is the fact that the M3 packs are delayed, so resources could be diverted quickly?

Yes I know different cell types, etc... but if Panasonic knew, they could probably change cell type priorities depending on which packs could be loaded—I’m seeing this as an advantage with having Panasonic right next door, especially early on.

I think this is proving the wisdom of having TE and Auto under one roof. Now if we can only get the solar up and running....
 
Wonder if part of the rapidity of the TE install is the fact that the M3 packs are delayed, so resources could be diverted quickly?

Yes I know different cell types, etc... but if Panasonic knew, they could probably change cell type priorities depending on which packs could be loaded—I’m seeing this as an advantage with having Panasonic right next door, especially early on.

I think this is proving the wisdom of having TE and Auto under one roof. Now if we can only get the solar up and running....

I don't know whether pack production resources were diverted to storage as a result of the M3 pack delays -- it is possible but I don't recall seeing any info on that one way or another. But the cells for South Australia were from Samsung (not Panasonic), so unfortunately I don't think we can conclude anything from the South Australia project about Panasonic's flexibility to produce storage v. automotive cells. Tesla Using Samsung SDI Battery Cells In 129 MWh South Australia Facility It is a good question though and one I have been interested in learning more about ....
 
I don't know whether pack production resources were diverted to storage as a result of the M3 pack delays -- it is possible but I don't recall seeing any info on that one way or another. But the cells for South Australia were from Samsung (not Panasonic), so unfortunately I don't think we can conclude anything from the South Australia project about Panasonic's flexibility to produce storage v. automotive cells. Tesla Using Samsung SDI Battery Cells In 129 MWh South Australia Facility It is a good question though and one I have been interested in learning more about ....

Yes, I would hope that Panasonic could be quickly flexible at the GF. Thinking about that regarding PR and the rest of the hurricane ravaged regions.
 
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All in all, I think Techmaven's #30822 is a useful and informative post. I would have written "apparently" in a number of the places where you chose to be absolutely definitive, although that is somewhat because I am perhaps more appreciative of how writings of any sort transmit through the internet.

If all that is true, however, I am somewhat bewildered and frustrated then that Tesla, after having manufactured battery packs for some 2X10^5 Models S & X, could be having such crippling difficulties in assembling what oughtn't to be too different a version for the Model 3. Has anyone any ideas?

The only thing I got is more automation. Pack is designed differently enough from current packs for high speed automation automation. If you recall they had issues with the beer 100KWh packs.
 
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A lot of people here seem to have a chip on their shoulder about something.

As a general rule, taking investments personally is a bad idea. At the retail level, individuals with relatively small amounts of shares can do practically nothing to move the market or change the company’s direction.

If people are uncomfortable losing money due to either an unfortunate long or short position, then it’s time to move on. Harping endlessly on why TSLA is still at $X price despite Y event, or why Tesla sucks for Z reason is wasted energy. Better to exit the position and move on.

Here is my take on Tesla:

Until Tesla fixes this one giant model 3 mess, stocks will not go UP, UP, UPPITY. Tesla is basically a Model 3 company. Model 3 demands easily reach 1 mil- 1.5 mil worldwide per year. No one cares about model S and X as much. All eyes are on model 3 production. If model 3 production sucks or stall, stock will go down. vice versa

my formula: MASSIVE BUYER + MASSIVE PRODUCTION = SUCCESS (STOCK UP)
 
Until the best engineers quit because working 80 hours a week in Nevada is not their idea of a good life.
Some people actually like a challenge, but you are correct it the job is nothing but 80 hour weeks it will get old. And grohmann people didn't seem to want options, just more pay and guaranteed jobs, so it shows where their minds are at when it comes to taking risks.
 
You are completely right. Porsche 2 seater cars(Boxster, cayman) are very much downmarket part of Porsche offering.
New Tesla Roadster will compete with top end of 911 range, like 911 Turbo, or a bit higher, like Ferrari 488, McLaren 570 or even 650 etc...
And yeah, that black car in the picture is GT4, top of the Cayman range, so I know what I'm talking about.
I fear you’re right. I would rather a Boxster priced solution.

Edit: speaking with my customer hat, not my investor hat on
 
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