2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Thumper]

Title is a little overly dramatic but this is worth keeping an eye on: Power Steering falling apart

 

[mrdoubleb]

For prospective Model 3 customers who are already accustomed to paying for a BMW 3-Series or equivalent vehicle, the elimination of the tax credit will likely make no difference. The upfront cost between the cars is similar and the Tesla has lower projected TCO.

For prospective Model 3 customers who are stretching their budget from a Honda Civic or Toyota Camry, there will be financial effects from losing the tax credit.

See this analysis:

So what do those of you who own an EV think about the maintenance costs they've calculated for for the Model 3? $400 for the first 4 years and 800 for the 5th. Is that realistic? Tesla's own Maintenance plan for the RWD Model S costs $2325 for 4 years and should include everything. Can't imagine why the Model 3 would cost double that in the first 5 years.

 

[JRP3]

FYI: Another TMC member checked the cars being readied for delivery: 1910 is a legitimate number for all those that were sure it was a fake photo.

Obviously you're in on the deception. Can't fool us!

 

[JRP3]

$400 for the first 4 years and 800 for the 5th. Is that realistic?

What would you have to spend money on with the vehicle under warranty?

 

[hobbes]

Well-known user dirtyfries on reddit (think he posts here, too) reports an on-time 3 (relative of) employee delivery, ordered 4 weeks ago. Just a single data point, but bodes well that things are going a bit more smoothely. My Model 3 LR Premium arrived yesterday. Took it on an early morning photo shoot for you all. • r/teslamotors

 

[tlo]

This is a much better representation of what's going on. I understand the#vin would have some correlation with total built/delivered. But having it on the y axis is very misleading itself. You can have a single 1910 spotted without any other cars. In this case there is an almost doubling effect on the y axis and make it look impressive but in truth it would be dismall if there were only one 1910 built

I disagree with this. It is highly unlikely that they would build cars with high VIN #s like 1910 without being on some kind of ramp to build the other 1909.

IMO, highest VIN is a better indicator than unique VINs because the latter is highly dependent on people posting every single VIN they see.

With unique VINs, you get a lumpy graph that flattens out as public interest in individual sightings decreases. You will never see a true exponential ramp in that graph because people stop posting unimportant VINs.
With highest VIN, you get an absolute state that doesn't depend on quantity of postings. The number is always increasing just as total production is always increasing. You can simply adjust for uncertainty based on # of confirmed VINs which is also visible in that graph, and do something to your liking like divide 1910 by 2 to get an estimate.

Example:
When there are only 100 Model 3s in the wild, people will post every single VIN they see, so we may get 30 unique VINs from that 100.
When there are 10000 Model 3s in the wild, you won't have 3000 people posting unique VINs, but you may have someone who posts a notably high VIN # like 99xx.

 

[geneclean55]

Seems like DirtyFries got VIN a week or so before delivery. Hopefully non-employees get their VINS end of this week.

 

[EinSV]

Are we talking about a net loss in reservations? or net loss in sales? Incentives on Tesla cars would only last in 2018 anyway, and Tesla has more than enough reservations to fill in 2018. And IMO after 2018 there will be enough orders continuously coming in, so there will be no impact on Tesla sales. This is basically doing what Elon wanted in anti-selling the M3 for the entire 2017 which is to reduce the backlog for 2018.

Repeal of EV tax, if it happens, would clearly be a net positive for Tesla IMO (although a negative for customers and impact on climate change).

Should be zero loss of Model 3 sales -- with ~500K pre-orders Tesla will clearly be production constrained through Q2 or Q3 2019 when Tesla's credits will run out under the current plan.

Potential negatives to Tesla include the possibility of fewer Model 3 options ordered for some US customers and a marginal impact on US S/X sales. But these effects, if they materialize, will only last a few quarters and should be minimal compared to the potential disadvantage of the uneven playing field in in 2019 and beyond as competitors finally start introducing EVs after Tesla's credits have dried up.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Not necessarily. It's just that $7500 less or more will shift the overall balance.

No, they didn't do some research. The majority of reservations came in at a time many of the crucial details were completely unknown. And since the $1000 was fully refundable, there was no need to either. For most reservations holders, the real research will start once they are invited to configure and asked to pony up another $2500 but now non-refundable.

Digging into the Electrek archives, Tesla had around 373k reservations by June 2016, slightly more than 2 months after the prototype reveal and reservation "camp-out" night: Tesla Model 3: there’s a way to see where you are in the queue, check it before Tesla finds out

Your original contention is that these people would be weighing the $7500 credit against the "(perceived) negatives from an EV", but I suspect that most of the people who waited in line overnight or reserved shortly after the reveal event, are already well aware of the real pros and cons of EVs. I don't see how "perceived", which implies that they have conceptions of EVs that are untrue, plays into this.

I believe that any end to the $7500 credit would deter some buyers from the Model 3, but I think this would be because of financial considerations rather than ignorance of EVs.

 

[Todd Burch]

Regarding order of VIN deliveries:

I believe that a significant production disruption (such as the battery module problem) can cause VINs to be delivered significantly out of order as they are pulled for rework or awaiting parts, etc. However, once resolved (and we may be close to that now) I think the VINs will be delievered in a much more orderly manner. Not perfectly in order of course, but not dramatically all over the place as they have been.

 

[avoigt]

Quite a jump in destination chargers in Spain. Adding 27...

Tesla instalará sus cargadores para coches eléctricos en la red de centros comerciales de Lar

I am always struck that the press and media seems not to get that any consumer is asking the valid question where he can charge an EV in case he buys one. People are afraid of being stuck somewhere and the charging infrastructure here in Europe for all cars beside Teslas is pretty weak.

That alone is like plaid mode for Demand.....

 

[dc_h]

Given that the tax credit was going to run out 1-2Q 2018, the biggest impact is on the people who reserved M3 on day 1(& maybe 1st week). Day 1 had like 400K reservations of which like 125K -150K were US. The assumption was that not all of the 125K reservation holders would end up getting the tax credit anyway.

So while there might be an impact, there is one more thing that we can assume about the day one reservation holders - most likely to be Tesla fanboys, EV enthusiasts etc etc. So with this skewed biased population in data sample, chances of changes in rule having big impact should be reduced.

After the credit hits 200,000 it runs the next quarter and then 50% for the next 6 months.
This does cut both ways, it will nearly eliminate all EV competition in the USA. Short term it will impact model 3 demand more than S/X. Basic economics still apply. It will push more buyers to the lower range version and more black cars.

I’m torn, I recognize the potential long term advantage for Tesla, but it almost locks BYD as the leading candidate for largest auto company of 2030.

 

[Fallenone]

I disagree with this. It is highly unlikely that they would build cars with high VIN #s like 1910 without being on some kind of ramp to build the other 1909.

IMO, highest VIN is a better indicator than unique VINs because the latter is highly dependent on people posting every single VIN they see.

With unique VINs, you get a lumpy graph that flattens out as public interest in individual sightings decreases. You will never see a true exponential ramp in that graph because people stop posting unimportant VINs.
With highest VIN, you get an absolute state that doesn't depend on quantity of postings. The number is always increasing just as total production is always increasing. You can simply adjust for uncertainty based on # of confirmed VINs which is also visible in that graph, and do something to your liking like divide 1910 by 2 to get an estimate.

Example:
When there are only 100 Model 3s in the wild, people will post every single VIN they see, so we may get 30 unique VINs from that 100.
When there are 10000 Model 3s in the wild, you won't have 3000 people posting unique VINs, but you may have someone who posts a notably high VIN # like 99xx.

You are correct if the ramp was smooth and few people are watching it closely. % of reported vin over total production will decrease as production rate increase because the Model 3 will be less "special". But I don't think we're there yet. Hence the 1910 could still be a similar case of that 10xx in late Sep.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Folks at Reddit have a fun vinbot that automatically plots these graphs:
Model 3 VINs

They're always up to date.

 

[Waiting4M3]

You are correct if the ramp was smooth and few people are watching it closely. % of reported vin over total production will decrease as production rate increase because the Model 3 will be less "special". But I don't think we're there yet. Hence the 1910 could still be a similar case of that 10xx in late Sep.

We saw 10xx in late Sep?

Edit: AFAIK the high VIN in Sep were 505 spotted on 9/29, and 521 spotted on 9/30

 

[geneclean55]

I don't see a record of 10xx in late Sept on the Tesla Reddit VINBOT.

Model 3 VINs

 

[Fallenone]

We saw 10xx in late Sep?

Edit: AFAIK the high VIN in Sep were 505 spotted on 9/29, and 521 spotted on 9/30

I was wrong. 521 was the highest known vin before October. Still, my point is the relationship between total production and highest vin number is not linear and I think it still stands.

 

[dc_h]

I was wrong. 521 was the highest known vin before October. Still, my point is the relationship between total production and highest vin number is not linear and I think it still stands.

VIN 1979 delivered.

 

[Buddyroe]

Supercharger Post.

I have posted in the past that I have an addiction to following the supercharger build-out. I've seen the progress go anywhere from 5 sites under construction to 45 at a time. I've seen some sites take 21 days to complete to some taking 150 or more. I've pretty much seen the announcement of every supercharger going live since #13. But, recently, what has me concerned is the shear number of days it's taking Tesla to get a supercharger live once all construction is completed. It seems the oil industry and the haters in general are throwing everything they have at stopping Tesla. In the past, a supercharger at 45 to 50 days into construction was surely about to pop. Now, there must be 20 over the 45 day mark - just sitting there completed, waiting for some gov't inspection, or utility hookup before Tesla can flip the switch and activate the supercharger. It can't be just a coincidence. People with agendas are holding up these superchargers from opening.

I often wonder if Elon doesn't consider if he would have been much better off to have started this journey in Europe instead of America. It's amazing the number of battles he has had to overcome to keep this life dream going. I have to admit, I would have said, "**** you" a long time ago. **** you to the Fox News, LA Times, and Wall Street Journals of the world. **** you to the politicians banning sales in multiple states. And **** you to the morons who don't have enough sense to do their own research and blindly believe these publications. I would have taken my efforts elsewhere. Mad props to Elon for continuing the good fight. He has fought the big money, the publications, and the ignorant ****s of the world.

Oh, and mind you, this is all coming from a South Georgia conservative libertarian.

Since my post has a lot of asterisks after I submitted it, I thought I would give a key.
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[GoTslaGo]

VIN 1979 delivered.

Link?