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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Lets see, AWD probably costs $5K, also may lose $3.75K of federal incentive waiting to buy in 2H'18, so buying AWD in 2H'18 could potentially cost $9K more than buying RWD in 1H'18. Can $60K worth of TSLA stocks/LEAPS gain ~$9K (15%) from 1H'18 to 2H'18? It's likely (more so for LEAPS) but maybe not a slam dunk.
If Tesla is producing 10k M3 per week at a profit of 25% both of which Elon said is going to happen I believe it's pretty close to a slam dunk, depending on our entry point. We are still 100% in cash.

I spent $30k on LEAPS when the SP was $180. Sold them for more than $230k when the SP was about $360.

Are you back in?
Not yet. It's either a brilliant move or really dumb.
 
Other than that I don't see any reason that you shouldn't do that but I'm sitting on 100% cash now, waiting to go all in on either J19 or J20 LEAPS when the SP drops to (I hope) under $315. Most of the other people on this forum consider that too risky. I believe that it's like shooting fish in a barrel.
I would consider sitting on 100% cash right now much too risky! I hope you're referring to your trading position and that you have a core position as well.

If not, then that's the classic market timing error, and if the stock skyrockets straight up without going down first, you'll miss the entire runup. This is specifically how market timers do worse than buy-and-hold investors and indexers. They did studies on this. Market timers do worse by being out of the market during the big runups, since most of the rise in a stock will happen in a few big runups with stagnation in between. I can't remember the details, but it was something like, for most stocks which gained a lot, the gains over 5 years are typically concentrated in three specific one-month periods, so being out during one of those periods wrecks your gains.

I do have some money which will go in if the stock drops below $310, but I have never sold a share and I don't intend to so so until at least 2019. If it goes straight up I do well, if it dips and I can buy more and then it goes up I do better.
 
Favorite comment of the day:

IMG_0059.jpg
 
Ok.

I note that the article you described as amateurish, not insightful, and a waste of time, was written at the bottom preceding a $25 rise in 24 hours.

I also note that your posts following the deliveries announcement showed that your interpretation was very negative, which was proven incorrect.

I would encourage you to take a step back and ask yourself if it's possible that you may be thinking about the wrong things.
Were you the one expecting 100K M3 for 2017?
I haven't followed much lately, are we still on track, or have you dropped the number to 65260 M3s?
 
Just a thought to reflect on:

When Adam Jonas said only 2K model-3s in 2017, we all laughed (including me). He very explicitly said it is because Tesla will prioritize quality over quantity.

Many people argued: Elon said so, M3 is easy to build, A class suppliers, etc

Now when Tesla misses the number badly, we are all using that exact Jonas argument to justify the miss.

Point is it's wrong to dismiss conservative posts/thoughts, especially through regurgitation of Elon/Tesla speak.

We got lucky this time with S/X news. Doesn't mean we have been right.

Are you that naive that you believe 'we' are all the same?
You argue with few zealots and then attribute their optimism to everyone. Sheesh...
For the record, I will be tremendously happy with 5K-10K M3 in 2017.
And I'm 100% TSLA
And stock will drop shortly after production starts. That's a normal hype cycle for highly expected products. That is, it will drop before it's recognized as a success and before SP starts growing again for real at that time - for years. That's a normal part of the cycle too

Hey, I said I would be 'tremendously' happy with 5K produced ;)
 
I would consider sitting on 100% cash right now much too risky! I hope you're referring to your trading position and that you have a core position as well.

If not, then that's the classic market timing error, and if the stock skyrockets straight up without going down first, you'll miss the entire runup. This is specifically how market timers do worse than buy-and-hold investors and indexers. They did studies on this. Market timers do worse by being out of the market during the big runups, since most of the rise in a stock will happen in a few big runups with stagnation in between. I can't remember the details, but it was something like, for most stocks which gained a lot, the gains over 5 years are typically concentrated in three specific one-month periods, so being out during one of those periods wrecks your gains.

I do have some money which will go in if the stock drops below $310, but I have never sold a share and I don't intend to so so until at least 2019. If it goes straight up I do well, if it dips and I can buy more and then it goes up I do better.
I've read the same study. I'm not sure of the numbers, but I'm sure of the premise: If you take away 10 best days during 5-10 year run, your return is only 20% of what it could have been, if you take away only 5 best days, you still gain only 50% of potential returns.
Point being that best days are unpredictable and are result of the surprise, and market timers are likely to miss them...
 
This is the zillionth time I'm repeating this, but I never said that... I'm sure the FUDsters are thankful for you doing their job in their absence. Congrats!
I expect Tesla to produce more than 100,000 Model 3's in 2017.

Combined with Model S and Model X, I expect Tesla to produce more than 200,000 cars in 2017.

Combined with Tesla Energy, I expect Tesla to achieve total revenue of more than $15 billion in 2017.

This compares favorably to the current 2017 consensus estimate of $11 billion.

Looking out to the next fiscal year, I expect Tesla to achieve total revenue of more than $35 billion in 2018.

This is nearly 2x of the current FY2018 consensus estimate of $19 billion.

I don't know from which body part some Wall Street analysts are pulling their estimates...

You sure you didn't say that?
Forum search function disagrees with you.
For anyone thinking I'm arguing with a ghost, I'm showing VA his post forecasting 100K M3, which he explicitly and pointedly told me few minutes ago he never forecasted.
There, I save you click on "Show Ignored Content" :)
 
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A Tesla-powered system would be a complete reversal for Puerto Rico's energy grid. Right now, the island imports and burns oil to generate electricity.

Under that antiquated system, ordinary Puerto Ricans have been paying exorbitantly high electric bills...


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The future is here.
 
This is the zillionth time I'm repeating this, but I never said that... I'm sure the FUDsters are thankful for you doing their job in their absence. Congrats!
I'll do it myself... and this will be the last time I need to make you look foolish for labelling anyone short with the term FUD:

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action
2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action
2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

have you updated your DCF yet VA? try 5k in 2017 and 100k in 2018... "ooo.... 100k in 2018... you're such a FUD'ster"

this pretty much hammers the last nail on my opinion of this board.
 
I'll do it myself... and this will be the last time I need to make you look foolish for labelling anyone short with the term FUD:

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action
2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action
2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

have you updated your DCF yet VA? try 5k in 2017 and 100k in 2018... "ooo.... 100k in 2018... you're such a FUD'ster"

this pretty much hammers the last nail on my opinion of this board.

So why do you keep posting here? If it’s just an echo chamber and you consider your views and analysis better than the consensus on this board, why are you wasting your time?
 
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