2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[madodel]

Nice spike on volume.

I don't see any news

??? Tesla Cars Are Flying Off the Lot, Stock Looks Ready to Break Out

"Flying off the lot". My X has wings.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Waiting4M3, your Avatar needs an update:

"I believe I can fly."

 

[TrendTrader007]

Not chasing it here anymore
Good to see it take off

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Quite the move there to the green. Something I miss?

TSLA is deeply undervalued, so SP surges unaccompanied by news should be expected.

 

[Causalien]

Puerto Rico might be a turning point for perception of solar city.

It's worth it to take a loss here to establish a reputation as savior and apocalypse defense.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Not chasing it here anymore
Good to see it take off

I'll be buying as SP rises all the way up o $1,000 to keep my margin at "moderate," because rising SP lowers my leverage as margin becomes equity... then I'll stop chasing at $1,000.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$400+ Coming before the end of this month
Enjoy the ride

 

[Alketi]

Anyone with mid-late October calls? Are you holding through next week, or selling into today's bump?

 

[Causalien]

I would consider sitting on 100% cash right now much too risky! I hope you're referring to your trading position and that you have a core position as well.

If not, then that's the classic market timing error, and if the stock skyrockets straight up without going down first, you'll miss the entire runup. This is specifically how market timers do worse than buy-and-hold investors and indexers. They did studies on this. Market timers do worse by being out of the market during the big runups, since most of the rise in a stock will happen in a few big runups with stagnation in between. I can't remember the details, but it was something like, for most stocks which gained a lot, the gains over 5 years are typically concentrated in three specific one-month periods, so being out during one of those periods wrecks your gains.

I do have some money which will go in if the stock drops below $310, but I have never sold a share and I don't intend to so so until at least 2019. If it goes straight up I do well, if it dips and I can buy more and then it goes up I do better.

Cash too risky agreed.

On one hand, the stock market rise looks like a bubble.

On the other hand, real inflation is more like 7% per year.

And the fed... seems mathematically challenged or is held back by politics so they had to use the fake CPI.

Or the fed actually believes CPI tracks real inflation and believes that policy should be set based on that. (This is the most likely scenario. Ocam's razor says incompetence is always the most likely reason or some other theory with another name.)

 

[LoveTSLA]

TSLA is deeply undervalued, so SP surges unaccompanied by news should be expected.

It looks will go over 360. Much faster than I expected! After 9/18 ATH, Tsla got pushed down to 336 in two weeks due to fear of M3 ramp. Now all that fear is over plus good S/M delivery, and semi unveil is coming. Plus PR potential. All looks good. Long Live TSLA

 

[Intl Professor]

This seems to be the culprit this morning

Trump Says Military Gathering Might Be ‘Calm Before the Storm’

My immediate reaction too. On macro thread I plan a response comparing Kremlinology to Trumpology. I think based on his fuller remarks the guy is pissed because he can't get the military to plan for war with N. Korea. Whenever your military is opposed to war but the commander in chief is not, that's a formula for disaster. Should scare the crap out of the S. Koreans and Japanese.

Edit: added ese.

 

[AlMc]

Anyone with mid-late October calls? Are you holding through next week, or selling into today's bump?

370 Oct 13th calls today with the morning drop. Small (only 20) position.

 

[elasalle]

Anyone with mid-late October calls? Are you holding through next week, or selling into today's bump?

I'm holding Oct 27th and Nov 3rd for at least 2 more weeks (.. not big positions .. just lotto plays)

 

[zdriver]

Anyone with mid-late October calls? Are you holding through next week, or selling into today's bump?

Sold most of my calls that expire today already, holding 2 360c as lottos if this current triangle resolves to the upside. Whoever is buying, is still at it, and probably really enjoying the huge selling spikes they're just sitting there and absorbing.

Also have some Oct (20th) 370c that I plan to hold into next week sometime.

 

[Lessmog]

Cash too risky agreed.

On one hand, the stock market rise looks like a bubble.

On the other hand, real inflation is more like 7% per year.

And the fed... seems mathematically challenged or is held back by politics so they had to use the fake CPI.

Or the fed actually believes CPI tracks real inflation and believes that policy should be set based on that. (This is the most likely scenario. Ocam's razor says incompetence is always the most likely reason or some other theory with another name.)

Hanlon?

 

[erthquake]

Um... Oct 6 305c & 310c.

View attachment 250786


That's $3.67M in 305c, and $2.32M in 310c bought in the last hour or so. (checked charts)

Looks like this will pay off nicely for him/her.

 

[Papafox]

Sold most of my calls that expire today already, holding 2 360c as lottos if this current triangle resolves to the upside. Whoever is buying, is still at it, and probably really enjoying the huge selling spikes they're just sitting there and absorbing.

Also have some Oct (20th) 370c that I plan to hold into next week sometime.

On Monday morning open, when volume was YUGE and someone was buyng all the shares being sold, do you have any reading on where the buying was coming from? I was surprised by the ferocity of both the selling and the buying on open Monday, and I suspect some big player(s) just decided it was time to load up and that big player(s) defined the delivery numbers to be a positive in much the same way that shorts try to define ambiguous news as a negative. Other buyers jumped in once the trend was set. Any insights appreciated.

 

[zdriver]

On Monday morning open, when volume was YUGE and someone was buyng all the shares being sold, do you have any reading on where the buying was coming from? I was surprised by the ferocity of both the selling and the buying on open Monday, and I suspect some big player(s) just decided it was time to load up and that big player(s) defined the delivery numbers to be a positive in much the same way that shorts try to define ambiguous news as a negative. Other buyers jumped in once the trend was set. Any insights appreciated.

Tuesday you mean? Not really. Shows up to me as tons of selling. Over the rest of the day, algos were big buyers, dark pools net sellers. Not much insight from accumulators that day. Price was a better tell. (gapping down, but closing green with an engulfing candle)

 

[DaveT]

On the other hand, real inflation is more like 7% per year.

@Causalien Can you clarify above?

 

[racer26]

Cash too risky agreed.

On one hand, the stock market rise looks like a bubble.

On the other hand, real inflation is more like 7% per year.

And the fed... seems mathematically challenged or is held back by politics so they had to use the fake CPI.

Or the fed actually believes CPI tracks real inflation and believes that policy should be set based on that. (This is the most likely scenario. Ocam's razor says incompetence is always the most likely reason or some other theory with another name.)

Believe the one you're looking for is Hanlon's razor. Hanlon's razor - Wikipedia