I'm not going to get too hyped up on it, but that, along with what seems to be an increase in sightings gives me some hope that the bottlenecks are starting to ease. Unfortunately, it's probably too late to get a true customer delivery this month. But maybe we can get a true customer configuration?
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I'm not going to get too hyped up on it, but that, along with what seems to be an increase in sightings gives me some hope that the bottlenecks are starting to ease. Unfortunately, it's probably too late to get a true customer delivery this month. But maybe we can get a true customer configuration?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Determining exactly when it's the opportunity is the tricky part.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Long term it's going to act very similar to Apple also.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
First outside-of-Tesla/SpaceX-employee configurations should start soon. The only options to choose are wheels, color, and Autopilot/FSD. No need for a configurator, just locking in orders.
bdy0627
Active Member
Yep, I think that sums it up. The only potentially useful tidbit about it short term is suggesting the strength of the stock at any point in time.So what you're saying is when TSLA is going up it goes up, and when it's going down it goes down?In all seriousness, I haven't seen any evidence that anyone here can predict where the stock is going short term, it defies all logic. I do feel pretty confident it's going up in the medium to long term though.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
TA is useless long term.
For short term and medium term TA is as good as the person doing the TA.
Reciprocity
Active Member
From where I sit, this does not seem to be an Elon who is sleeping on the factory floor in either Reno or Fremont. I feel like he is the type of boss that would be standing directly behind the guy or team that is fixing a specific bottleneck until its fixed and then on the next. Maybe he is just taking time to have a bit of fun on twitter in between, but I get the impression that the ramp is back on track.
I also want to call out a bit the idea that because they produced 1300 less cars in Sept then originally projected and weeks worth of production behind in Aug that they are not 4 weeks behind schedule going into Nov. There are two main reasons that some are looking at this backwards. Even if there are a couple of bottlenecks, improvements continue throughout the entire production ramp including improvements with suppliers. Everything does not stop just because there is a problem with welds on the battery packs. They can build the entire car and have it waiting for a pack for instance. To be clear, I am not saying that is what they are doing, only calling out that even several bottle necks does not stop the seat manufacturer from ramping and other system sin the process form ironing out issues.
The other reason is that this is the bottom of the curve, so you have to look at the entire years target for production and divide the number of cars short by that to find what percent they are actually behind. You can then multiply this by the number of days to find out how many weeks, though you might want stick with days to get how far they are behind the targeted number for production, though this will be exaggerated because the delays did not stop other ramp related process improvements. If I am right, they will actually catch up some later in the ramp because those parts will go a bit more smoothly because they improvement independently of the bottlenecks.
Not having any real data, lets look at a simple scenario. Lets say Tesla is able to production 2000 cars for Oct. If the target was 4000, they would be roughly 6 weeks behind at this point. This would put them ~3063 cars behind (I cheated to make the math simple). If we assume the total production target was 30+100+1500+4000+9000+16000 = 30630. Based on this scenario, 10% of 180 days behind, or 18 days. This equates to a sum total of 6 weeks behind actually dropping to 10% of total production or 18 days of actual production time. Again, this number might be exaggerated based on the theory above of improvements throughout the system even though bottlenecks stopped fully produced cars. We should know over the next couple of months if they can actually exceed our projections for Nov and Dec of roughly 2k/w growing to 4k per week and of course 5K produced (not delivered) in the very last week of the year.
Looking back, it probably would have been much smarter to project the ramp to look like.. 30, 100, 250, 500, 2000x4, 4000x3, 5000 in last week. It would have made it easier to have upside surprise and if Elon really is that confident in the final couple of months, then it probably would have been more accurate.
Neither is AAPL. Luckily my wife never asks how our investments are doing so I don't have to tell her about the $100k or so lost today. It's all just paper/electrons.
Come on 310. I want another shot at buying some more with TT007. We need more poetry.For a company that says it makes 50 changes a week to their current production cars, what are the chances that they aren’t going to be making a lot of last-minutes changes with the M3, and that those changes are also one of the reasons for the delay.
larmor
Active Member
What you need is a daily dose of kanban...Neither is AAPL. Luckily my wife never asks how our investments are doing so I don't have to tell her about the $100k or so lost today. It's all just paper/electrons.
larmor
Active Member
Exactly when for AAPL was anytime before it went to the Moon and split and any time after it split. Same for TSLA.
erthquake
Active Member
I think it depends on the type of changes. I'd bet that the only changes made right now are those that, based on feedback from current production cars in the wild, significantly improve the reliability/quality of the car without slowing down production. These are "fix" changes, not new features or enhancements. The car already appears to be a hit. There's little incentive in enhancing the car until demand wanes.
That said, I guess that they already have a roadmap for implementing enhancements, and they have a decent idea how to smoothy implement them into production. They've had a lot of practice with that on the S/X line.
And that has taken decades to get to that stability and then today it nosedived 3% on no real news. Can't WAIT until TSLA splits 2:1 and then 7:1. Maybe just do a 10:1 split when it hits 1000. But that isn't going to be this year and probably not next year.
I am pretty sure this does not apply to Model 3 when it is in the initial ramp up phase.
3Victoria
Active Member
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The argument for Tesla’s JB Straubel being the world’s foremost expert in batteries
What is Tesla’s core technology advantage over competitors? Does it even have one? Those are questions that often come up when discussing Tesla’s lead in the electric vehicle sector. Since Tesla open-sourced its patents, some suggested that its technology advantage is virtually nonexistent since competitors could simply use it, but it’s not as simple.
The Gigafactory is obviously a huge advantage. What's usually overlooked is that the reason that it makes sense for Tesla to invest in the Gigafactory is the huge demand for their products.
To get a sense of the magnitude of that advantage does anyone believe that it makes sense for GM to invest in a Gigafactory to support Bolt and Volt production ?!
I think that GM's managers believe that when they can get cheap batteries that they will overwhelm TSLA. But the chances of GM obtaining batteries at a price that's competitive with TSLA is close to zero, and even if they do that based on their efforts so far (Spark and Bolt) their chances of building a competitive car are even less.
What is Tesla’s core technology advantage over competitors? Does it even have one? Those are questions that often come up when discussing Tesla’s lead in the electric vehicle sector. Since Tesla open-sourced its patents, some suggested that its technology advantage is virtually nonexistent since competitors could simply use it, but it’s not as simple.
The Gigafactory is obviously a huge advantage. What's usually overlooked is that the reason that it makes sense for Tesla to invest in the Gigafactory is the huge demand for their products.
To get a sense of the magnitude of that advantage does anyone believe that it makes sense for GM to invest in a Gigafactory to support Bolt and Volt production
?!I think that GM's managers believe that when they can get cheap batteries that they will overwhelm TSLA. But the chances of GM obtaining batteries at a price that's competitive with TSLA is close to zero, and even if they do that based on their efforts so far (Spark and Bolt) their chances of building a competitive car are even less.
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My BS Technical tea leaves show “short term” we will close out the day strong
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