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last we knew they sold 200 cars... and now we've got this:
Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report
who told you they're a couple months behind?... someone on this board?... who heard it from someone on this board?... who "ran some numbers" that they got from someone on this board?
A) "a few weeks from March" is not May or June... that's 4 to 8 weeks... and considering it's October, that estimate is a 100% WAG
B) Do you realize how much this board would be crawling over themselves in tears of joy if this article said "Tesla RAISES it's units/week in December to 7000/wk"?
and when they drop it you're like... "meh... a couple weeks behind... nothing to see here folks"
Again, confirms the concerned Taiwan company is supplying 5k parts a week for October & November. Lowering December target to 3k a week does not mean per se Tesla is no longer targeting 5k cars a week in december.
They have a delay right now and the inflow of parts of October & November are vastly outnumbering current production. They don't want to build up inventory too much so they use their contractual notice period of 2 months?
"Hota shares were down 7.6 percent at 0530 GMT"
1536:Taiwan Stock Quote - Hota Industrial Manufacturing Co Ltd
Let me guess... you think this is good news for Tesla, right?
Easy on coffee, buddy. The posts coming out slightly on hysterical side...
Missing my morning SP projection - we've got terrible "news" (which is not news as this Forum have been discussing ramp delays for a while now) - so what's your projection, wiz?
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Myusername probably got a red alert call to help create negative sentiment premarket - thinly traded so perhaps you can steer it some but this is going up today shortly after market opens and MM can adjust their holdings and hedges.
TMC intraday hell ~ 9th ring
TMC intraday hell ~ 9th ring
Hmmm.. 10k a week that early in 2018? Very interesting.
Reciprocity
Active Member
It's fantastic news, the market expects 2000 model 3s delivered for all of 2017. Only you apparently did not hear the rumor that Elon tends to set outrageous goals for his teams. I have already explained how early delays are not linear due to exponential ramp, but I'd guess they are 3-4 weeks behind. There's is also an amazingly positive nugget in that article which supports my exponential ramp model of you are smart enough to read. They clearly state that orders for 10,000 parts per week may be delayed from March to may or June. Who had Tesla manufacturing 10000/w in July?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Exactly. Today is going to be a good day. Probably some nonsense to deal with at the gate and pre market but hang on to your hat.
This premarket head fake is hilarious.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Agreed in general. The only thing that matters is that all Bottlenecks are removed going into 2018 and an exit velocity of 5000/w. That means 5000 cars built the week before Christmas. Going from 5K-10K is just a matter of copying the lines.
Everyone needs to remember a Bottleneck in process 143 does not stop improvements and validation of the first 142 processes or those after. Also the ramp is still exponential so once early Bottlenecks are removed the ramp can accelerate quickly. The exit velocity is critical.
bambam4171
Member
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Why not use the sleeper cab on the Tesla semi?
And may also help explain the large part storage towers Tesla is building. Part deliveries are committed and arriving, but the vehicles aren't rolling out as fast, yet.
If so, the line rate increase will not be limited by delivery timing until Tesla runs out of stock on hand.
1. Fix bottle neck
2. Build as fast as line can go/ bottlenecked part rate (quickly increasing)
3. Update suppliers with 2 month lead time
4. Build out in house parts inventory
5. Match line speed to part arrival rate
6. Jump to 3
It may be fall, but many leaves are still Green and hanging in there. (Not an advice, nor poetry)
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