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STARR X
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I think this is good too. But 10,000 parts does not mean 10,000 cars. Each car could have multiple parts.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
In the last couple of hours: sell-side analyst downgrade, Reuters article, parts rumor, widespread negative sentiment from commenters on Seeking Alpha, and all of this FUD:
This is what a bottom looks like.
Actually, it still sounds too good to me.Just like 100k-200k in second half of 2017 did last year.
Or 20k in Dec sounded just few months back. How long before the 0 is dropped?
If Tesla couldn't see the huge "bottlenecks" coming their way till it got run over, how can we feel confident Tesla sees everything till next May or June?
Those seat excuses seem pure FUD. We all saw Tesla delivering production cars in July. How could the cars be in production when parts didn't meet specs? They were all simulated to reach the RC status logn ago, were they not?
Now we have Reuters reporting on this. Part maker Hota dropped 9%. Where will TSLA go tomorrow?
Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report
Here is a simple question. This supplier makes axles and gears. How many axles and gear parts are in a M3? Do 3000 parts equal 3000 cars, or fewer cars?
This is what a bottom looks like.
So, the original article in Chinese has some very interesting information. Apparently the 5k/week level was set for October. Temporary adjustment to 3k/wk in December. Going to 10k/wk in late Q2 2018. Says something about supplier problems.
Can someone with Chinese language skills provide a better translation?
Can someone with Chinese language skills provide a better translation?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I do hope you are correct. Unfortunately, I see more Longs getting squeezed out and rotating to FANG stocks. There is little good Tesla news out there right now. Sentiment, and sustained positive movement in the SP of TSLA will only come, IMO, when there is unequivocal evidence that the 3s are being produced in quantity.
The X and 3 delays are quite different in cause, IMO but they are both *misses* on EM guidance. The X was due to complexity of design while the 3 is due to the A team at A suppliers not coming through or bottlenecks by Tesla manufactured parts (battery pack assembly at the GF and validation of stamping equipment at Fremont....my speculation on the latter)
Having been in TSLA for years I have come to expect EM guidance is aspirational not real. It does not make it any easier as an investor to have us all sit through 'stockholder hell'.
I am not selling a single share or any of the J19s but it does not mean one can't question management on failure to deliver. The shorts have a good narrative right now. It won't last forever.
jelloslug
Active Member
Every single post on this forum from AcesDealt has been in this thread, enough said.
bdy0627
Active Member
With another threatening red day to go along with the others from the last week plus all of the negative news lately, I do not fear the ER next week. I have a very hard time seeing this ER being negative relative to what is known now. I don't believe it will cause a further drop next week. TSLA at ~ $320 is a great price for the coming year.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Well what did you expect ?
We all know how poetry or singing on this forum can drop the stock price.
IF a CEO sings or reads poetry what else can it do other than FORCE the stock down!!!
We all know how poetry or singing on this forum can drop the stock price.
IF a CEO sings or reads poetry what else can it do other than FORCE the stock down!!!
Well, I may be the biggest idiot in the world but I just backed up the truck. I see the news as positive and I think there will be a strong reversal today. Do your own due diligence / not advice, etc.
Ford just posted another quarter w/ billions in profit... Tesla is about to post another quarter of hundreds of millions in losses... the reason why this stock is so high is because the M3 is supposed to be the "second coming"... and it's late... bottlenecked... and now they're ramping down future vendor orders...
it's not fine if the M3 simply does "eh... ok"... it has to completely blow our minds to justify this valuation... it had to happen as Elon had earlier predicted... and it's not blowing our minds... it's following through just as expected... slow... with issues... and it's becoming very apparent that 2017 will be a wash and 2018 will be drastically less than stellar.
$320 is bullshit for this stock at this point.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Blackberry posted record revenue and profit after the iPhone launched. Things unraveled after that.
10k/week in mid-2018 is a dramatically more stellar target than expected.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Is the 10k/week by mid-18 target confirmed? Is that what the supplier said? Did they say "10k/week parts" or "parts enough for 10k/week cars?"
You are FAR from an idiot
but I will still wait for $310, if it ever comes. I hope you are right because currently TSLA looks like an anchor today for my portfolio which otherwise looks like it should be smooth sailing with the NAZ.EDIT: I may move my target to $306....
My biggest decision is whether to sit on TSLA intended cash till the J20s come out instead of J19s if we hit my PT.
Tesla has order with suppliers.
Tesla has to give supplier 2 month notice on volume changes
Tesla therefore cannot change order quantities instantly to match line bring up
Tesla placed orders based on estimated line speed
Line speed was less than planned
Tesla has more parts on hand then they need
Tesla lowered order quantity to match new projected production rate.
Or, to make it simpler (using rough numbers and dates for illustration), they swapped order quantities for November and January. Instead of 3k and 5k (build rate) they are getting 5k and 3k. Still 8k of parts, maybe 5 k and 2k....
Adjustment for inventory != ramp down
I agree — I am optimistic about the prospects for 2018 but was pleasantly surprised by that.
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