-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
The supplier said the 10k/week has been pushed back to May or June. So end of q2 2018. So realistically q3 2018 earliest.
Last edited:
If you look back at parts orders for the beginning of the Model 3 ramp you can see that Tesla will place orders to do its best to try to ensure that parts supplies will not be a roadblock in production. But inevitably some suppliers will fall short in terms of volume or quality and the ramp can only progress as fast as the worst performing supplier. (Elon has explained this in the past but I don’t have time to look it up.) And that assumes no problems ramping the production line.
So I would view 10K/wk by mid-2018 as much more optimistic than even the “impossible” July 2017 date for the start of Model 3 production.
More broadly, getting out ahead of Tesla’s own (usually optimistic) projections on this is very likely to prove wrong. Tesla has said 10K/week production some time in 2018. Until I hear otherwise I am assuming December 2018, and in my mind that would be a massive home run.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I have 10,000 per week in dec as well. Just wanted to make sure last night's supplier comments didn't change that.
Moving up the date seems premature to me, although the new info does suggest Tesla still has some cushion left to hit 10K in December 2018 even factoring in some additional delays.
That seems very positive to me.
Last edited:
erthquake
Active Member
I don't understand the seat thing. In every Model 3 interior I've seen, the front seat backs have pockets.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
That seems premature to me, although the new info does suggest Tesla still has some cushion left to hit 10K in December 2018 even factoring in some additional delays.
That seems very positive to me.
Agreed. I have 350k model 3's in 2018, so 7,000/week avg for 50 weeks. And 100k to 125k combined model s/x.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report
"Tesla may delay scheduled weekly shipments of 10,000 parts in March by a few weeks until May or June, the report added."
At least there a chance we may see 10,000/week some time in 3Q18. I wonder if this'll come up in the call.
"Tesla may delay scheduled weekly shipments of 10,000 parts in March by a few weeks until May or June, the report added."
At least there a chance we may see 10,000/week some time in 3Q18. I wonder if this'll come up in the call.
Gerardf
Active Member
Maybe it is not for the seat in the front, but the back.
In China the Boss / VIP has a driver.
erthquake
Active Member
Wouldn't that kind of person be riding in an S or X?
That’s exactly what my wife said when she read that line in the article.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I don't know of a single sell-side analyst projecting 10,000 per week by end-18, let alone 2Q18.
The $21B 2018 revenue consensus assumes 150k Model 3's in 2018, or ~5,000 per week by end-18, per my estimate.
I'm from India and even people driving compact economy cars (by US standards - Civic, Corolla etc.) sometimes have drivers.
While the criticism of JC during the X era is warranted, the criticism of TT is overblown, in my opinion. TT based his predictions on technical data. Perhaps the greatest lesson of the past few weeks is the limitations of technical analysis when a) a fundamental issue such as the ramp-up of Model 3 holds far more power to affect the stock price than technicals in the short term and b) the combination of a dread (where are the Model 3s?) and downward pressure on the SP by serious manipulations by the shorts yields a long downward run. None of us knew the timing of the Model 3 ramp-up. If good news had come earlier (we were exceeding 360 on Oct 18, barely a week ago), TSLA could be way up right now, as TT suggested. JC was talking about shorter term calls (which turned out to be a really bad move in the X era), TT has mostly been a stock and J19 call investor although he also holds some J18s. Investors who bought stock and J19 calls over the range when TT was doing it will likely still do fine over the coming year. Remember that TT began pushing investors to buy at lower prices than we see today. You would still be in fine shape if you had mimicked his buying.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I look at the supplier's comment as an estimate, I doubt Tesla has placed order out to 2018. They might've originally been told by Tesla to expect an order as large as 10K/wk by March. And now with this 5K->3K/wk reduction in Dec, the supplier may have guessed that Tesla's schedule is pushed back by 2 months. I didn't get an impression that the new 10K/wk in May/Jun timeframe came from Tesla.Moving up the date seems premature to me, although the new info does suggest Tesla still has some cushion left to hit 10K in December 2018 even factoring in some additional delays.
That seems very positive to me.
That being said, if Tesla originally ballparked 10K/wk in March, it's likely their internal target for that run rate is Q2'18. They've emphasized that they negotiated 60-day payment terms and hope to produce/sell M3 quicker than 60 days to bank the cash temporarily on each car. So it would make sense that they will use parts as soon as they can.
Last point, if Tesla's issue in ramp is parts, and not tooling, then I think setting up a 2nd line to ramp from 5K to 10K may not be any more difficult than ramping from 0-5K. It may be that whatever they need to do to free up the space to ramp M3 to 10K, such as potentially revamping, simplify, and consolidating MS/X lines to free up space for a 2nd M3 line, that could be challenging. But I don't see why it should be more difficult than ramping M3.
I think one needs to be careful drawing any production run rate conclusions from today's news. There's a bunch we don't know - most importantly how many pieces are they ordering per vehicle, how long does it take to get the product from Taiwan to California, is the part single sourced or do other vendors supply it as well.
It's possible they're shifting orders to the other vendor if they have one. If Tesla needs 2 pieces per vehicle, you can cut your production estimates in half. I would also guess maybe a month in transit for the parts - I doubt they're air dropping them.
It's possible they're shifting orders to the other vendor if they have one. If Tesla needs 2 pieces per vehicle, you can cut your production estimates in half. I would also guess maybe a month in transit for the parts - I doubt they're air dropping them.
dc_h
Active Member
Congrats to you and wife on pulling out and getting back in after a correction. Bet you had a hard time with fomo 6 weeks ago.
Not to be "that guy", but I totally saw this coming. (in hindsight, I failed to heed my own advice, instead brushing it off as being overly pessimistic, go figure...)
(comment about not being downward momentum yet was true, but sharp reversals at ATH's spook buyers, and downgrades are a free whack-a-mole hammer shorts love to use on TSLA)
Here's weekly. Red topping candle confirmed double top. Failed to break and hold above $360, head & shoulders breakdown confirmed this week.
Monthly view. Really nasty long wick red candle last month shows strong rejection from highs, (first indicated by June's long top wick, confirmed by July's very bearish engulfing candle) breakdown confirmed by this month's candle showing further rejection from highs. This chart is what long term bears dream of because it gives a much better chance of "next stop 270". (naturally, $160 after that, on the way to $0, duh)
The positive side of this (which TT007 would argue, I'm sure) is it somewhat resembles a bull flag on monthly.
(comment about not being downward momentum yet was true, but sharp reversals at ATH's spook buyers, and downgrades are a free whack-a-mole hammer shorts love to use on TSLA)
Here's weekly. Red topping candle confirmed double top. Failed to break and hold above $360, head & shoulders breakdown confirmed this week.
Monthly view. Really nasty long wick red candle last month shows strong rejection from highs, (first indicated by June's long top wick, confirmed by July's very bearish engulfing candle) breakdown confirmed by this month's candle showing further rejection from highs. This chart is what long term bears dream of because it gives a much better chance of "next stop 270". (naturally, $160 after that, on the way to $0, duh)
The positive side of this (which TT007 would argue, I'm sure) is it somewhat resembles a bull flag on monthly.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
