2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[dc_h]

Myusername probably got a red alert call to help create negative sentiment premarket - thinly traded so perhaps you can steer it some but this is going up today shortly after market opens and MM can adjust their holdings and hedges.
TMC intraday hell ~ 9th ring

He’s agnostic. Buys when his TA says buy. Othe skeptics are full time haters, MU just thinks it’s overpriced, not worthless. Mmd seems to have a full time job hating on TSLA, but some are just skeptical.

 

[Lessmog]

He’s agnostic. Buys when his TA says buy. Othe skeptics are full time haters, MU just thinks it’s overpriced, not worthless. Mmd seems to have a full time job hating on TSLA, but some are just skeptical.

Now, that rings a bell somewhere in my belfry ...

 

[SteveG3]

While the criticism of JC during the X era is warranted, the criticism of TT is overblown, in my opinion. TT based his predictions on technical data. Perhaps the greatest lesson of the past few weeks is the limitations of technical analysis when a) a fundamental issue such as the ramp-up of Model 3 holds far more power to affect the stock price than technicals in the short term and b) the combination of a dread (where are the Model 3s?) and downward pressure on the SP by serious manipulations by the shorts yields a long downward run. None of us knew the timing of the Model 3 ramp-up. If good news had come earlier (we were exceeding 360 on Oct 18, barely a week ago), TSLA could be way up right now, as TT suggested. JC was talking about shorter term calls (which turned out to be a really bad move in the X era), TT has mostly been a stock and J19 call investor although he also holds some J18s. Investors who bought stock and J19 calls over the range when TT was doing it will likely still do fine over the coming year. Remember that TT began pushing investors to buy at lower prices than we see today. You would still be in fine shape if you had mimicked his buying.

I don't think TT is a troll. I don't think there's need to criticize him... but, we each have the opportunity to think critically when he (or anyone showing up here for that matter) makes assertions like,

"I really believe that TSLA has an extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019 which is approximately 18.5 months from now"

and, when questioned as to whether he thinks that would be a reflection of fair value, or is based on something else, TT replies,

"No it's not a value based analysis not at all
It's based on my TA analysis and highly speculative
However I've made a $17 bet based on above
I do believe that most investors are grossly underestimating the powerful surge in SP that is coming imminently for TSLA
I could bet another $0.20 but choose to restrain my wild impulses
Time element is the single most important consideration for me
Price projections are far less important
The great Jesse Livermore talked about the importance of time element
What is the single most important thing in life
Time
Much more significant than money
I'm deeply philosophical about my investments
So if anything my time frame and price projections are totally based on my philosophical take
And some TA"

That might feel like a fun response (it received more than a little "love"), but we can each think critically about what it reflects about the usefulness of the "extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019" assertion.

 

[austinEV]

TT is not wrong yet.

 

[SteveG3]

TT is not wrong yet.

fwiw, I appreciate the guy, he will never be 'wrong' in my view, and still, as I wrote before,

"we can each think critically about... the usefulness of the "extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019" assertion." "

 

[Skryll]

TT is not wrong yet.

It was time to sell those AMZN anyways

 

[Starno]

fwiw, I appreciate the guy, he will never be 'wrong' in my view, and still, as I wrote before,

"we can each think critically about... the usefulness of the "extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019" assertion." "

Well it's useful as it incites people to buy more TSLA lol ...
Ofc, that's only if they have a buy and hold strategy.

 

[theschnell]

Agreed. I have 350k model 3's in 2018, so 7,000/week avg for 50 weeks. And 100k to 125k combined model s/x.

You're dreaming on 350k Model 3s in 2018 in my opinion. I predict we enter 2018 at less than 5k per week. Hitting 200k Model 3s is a long-shot but perhaps possible. 350k, almost certainly not gonna happen. Remember, you predicted 100k model 3s in 2017...

I'm long, but lets not get our expectations way out of line with what's likely to happen.

Edit: To clarify, not only do I expect we enter 2017 at a run-rate of less than 5k per week, but also Elon made it clear that going from 5k to 10k per week would be a step change. So they are going to go from 5k a week, and then if history is a guide, which so far in this ramp it has been, they will close down the factory for a few weeks when implementing the step change from 5k to 10k per week. And the step change will likely happen later than they hope. All that being said, I will be very, very happy if they are doing 10k per week by December 2018 as Elon promised.

 

[LoL Rick]

@TrendTrader007 can afford to bet big and risk losing it all. He makes big money in his day job and is young enough to start over from zero and have a comfortable retirement. That has to be a factor when reading posts about his trades even though I do admire his exuberance.

But not all of us are in the same situation. I simply cannot tolerate the same level of risk, unless I'm willing to live out my golden years in a trailer park.

 

[Lessmog]

@TrendTrader007 can afford to bet big and risk losing it all. He makes big money in his day job and is young enough to start over from zero and have a comfortable retirement. That has to be a factor when reading posts about his trades even though I do admire his exuberance.

But not all of us are in the same situation. I simply cannot tolerate the same level of risk, unless I'm willing to live out my golden years in a trailer park.

Nor can I. But I'm pretty sure TT has repeatedly warned everyone to assess their own situation, stress tolerance etc and take responsibility for our own choices, instead of blindly following his "not an advice". Ignore that at peril. Caveat emptor (the cave is empty) and so on.

 

[elasalle]

Check twitter land, TT007 is still buying.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You're dreaming on 350k Model 3s in 2018 in my opinion. I predict we enter 2018 at less than 5k per week. Hitting 200k Model 3s is a long-shot but perhaps possible. 350k, almost certainly not gonna happen. Remember, you predicted 100k model 3s in 2017...

I'm long, but lets not get our expectations way out of line with what's likely to happen.

Edit: To clarify, not only do I expect we enter 2017 at a run-rate of less than 5k per week, but also Elon made it clear that going from 5k to 10k per week would be a step change. So they are going to go from 5k a week, and then if history is a guide, which so far in this ramp it has been, they will close down the factory for a few weeks when implementing the step change from 5k to 10k per week. And the step change will likely happen later than they hope. All that being said, I will be very, very happy if they are doing 10k per week by December 2018 as Elon promised.

What's your total unit prediction for 2018?

 

[SteveG3]

Nor can I. But I'm pretty sure TT has repeatedly warned everyone to assess their own situation, stress tolerance etc and take responsibility for our own choices, instead of blindly following his "not an advice". Ignore that at peril. Caveat emptor (the cave is empty) and so on.

Agree, it’s helpful when those reminders are included.

 

[theschnell]

What's your total unit prediction for 2018?

I like your 100 - 125k for S & X combined. I'll go with 180k Model 3. I would be very happy with that for 2018. Now for 2019 I want at least 400k Model 3...

Edit: Elon himself said that he guaranteed 10k a week by December of 2018 and that from 5k to 10k would be a step change. Once I put that through Elon reality translator, I get that they *might* exit 2018 with 10k per week. So in that case we are looking at 5k a week from when they first hit it through the rest of the year, which by definition is less than 200k. Unless you still think they will hit 5k per week by the end of this year. I will be nothing short of shocked if they pull that off at this point.

 

[TradingInvest]

I don't think TT is a troll. I don't think there's need to criticize him... but, we each have the opportunity to think critically when he (or anyone showing up here for that matter) makes assertions like,

"I really believe that TSLA has an extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019 which is approximately 18.5 months from now"

and, when questioned as to whether he thinks that would be a reflection of fair value, or is based on something else, TT replies,

"No it's not a value based analysis not at all
It's based on my TA analysis and highly speculative
However I've made a $17 bet based on above
I do believe that most investors are grossly underestimating the powerful surge in SP that is coming imminently for TSLA
I could bet another $0.20 but choose to restrain my wild impulses
Time element is the single most important consideration for me
Price projections are far less important
The great Jesse Livermore talked about the importance of time element
What is the single most important thing in life
Time
Much more significant than money
I'm deeply philosophical about my investments
So if anything my time frame and price projections are totally based on my philosophical take
And some TA"

That might feel like a fun response (it received more than a little "love"), but we can each think critically about what it reflects about the usefulness of the "extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019" assertion.

My 2 cents.

TSLA will not hit $2800 by March/April 2019, not even close to that level. We are unlikely to get a major short squeeze, because too many people have been preparing for the short squeeze. That's the strange thing about the stock market.

What's most likely to happen is Tesla will ramp up Model 3 production with occasional bumps here and there. This is not the first time they ramp up production, they have done much more difficult things in the early years. Maybe I should say "we" instead of "they" because we are all shareholders. But they are doing the hard work. I feel guilty.

By early 2019, Tesla will be producing ~10,000 Model 3s a week with nice margin, Model Y, Semi, Pickup will be coming...... at that time the stock probably will be around $500. If everything goes smoothly, including the Gigafactory 2 ramp up, the autonomous driving development.... then I would be surprised if the stock stays below $1000.

Based on my conversations with TT007, he is a great, honest guy, not a troll. He has extensive stock knowledge not only about TSLA and chart. Combined with his willingness to take leveraged position, I bet he will become a billionaire in the end. The only problem is that a concentrated and leveraged position tend to wipe out people during road bumps. He will not be wiped out this time. After this round, his approach will be much safer.

This is like the repeat of 2016, don't be upset when the stock goes lower.

 

[Navin]

I don’t think these two comments were posted before. Came from his instagram account. So humble.

 

[SteveG3]

My 2 cents.

TSLA will not hit $2800 by March/April 2019, not even close to that level. We are unlikely to get a major short squeeze, because too many people have been preparing for the short squeeze. That's the strange thing about the stock market.

What's most likely to happen is Tesla will ramp up Model 3 production with occasional bumps here and there. This is not the first time they ramp up production, they have done much more difficult things in the early years. Maybe I should say "we" instead of "they" because we are all shareholders. But they are doing the hard work. I feel guilty.

By early 2019, Tesla will be producing ~10,000 Model 3s a week with nice margin, Model Y, Semi, Pickup will be coming...... at that time the stock probably will be around $500. If everything goes smoothly, including the Gigafactory 2 ramp up, the autonomous driving development.... then I would be surprised if the stock stays below $1000.

Based on my conversations with TT007, he is a great, honest guy, not a troll. He has extensive stock knowledge not only about TSLA and chart. Combined with his willingness to take leveraged position, I bet he will become a billionaire in the end. The only problem is that a concentrated and leveraged position tend to wipe out people during road bumps. He will not be wiped out this time. After this round, his approach will be much safer.

This is like the repeat of 2016, don't be upset when the stock goes lower.

Stock price around $500 at that time seems plausible to me, though I think that would still mean the market as an aggregate would be undervaluing the company.

I don’t take the second bet listed here Wednesday, that is, I don’t bet that I know the timing of when the aggregate of rational and irrational market actor decisions (the stock price) will coincide with the company’s underlying value. I only take the first bet below. fwiw, not saying you are taking that second bet.

Perhaps the most helpful 5 minutes I've ever seen anyone offer regarding decision making for an individual investor.

Using Buffett's "punchcard" analogy, I think we've done well to use a "punch" on Tesla... but, how about considering our choices among the Tesla investing possibilities. We can each ask ourselves, do we want to use one of our 20 "punches" for betting

- on TSLA outperforming the market in the long-term

- the timing, to a month, of when the market as an aggregate transitions from being irrational to rational in its valuation of Tesla

- the timing of when the short position in Tesla will return to the normative size for publicly traded companies

As Buffett put it in the video,

"It's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything, you only have to have an opinion on a few things."

 

[theschnell]

View attachment 256536 I don’t think these two comments were posted before. Came from his instagram account. So humble.

I'm fully convinced that a big part of the hold up of M3 production is battery packs from Gigafactory, not some outside supplier. But perhaps they insourced some other component and are just working on producing at Gigafactory just because that's where they have enough space...

 

[vgrinshpun]

What am I missing here?

The plant -- which the United Auto Workers has been trying to help employees organize -- has more than 10,000 workers, almost double the 5,500 who workedthere in 2006.

5500 = 426k
Why 10k = 100k?

Numi housed production engineering, but definitely not desigh engineering for engines, transmissions, HVAC systems, Sound Systems, etc., etc. The design personnel was scattered around the world between Toyota and GM design centers. This is huge difference. Add all of the software engineering done by Tesla and you have your answer.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think one needs to be careful drawing any production run rate conclusions from today's news. There's a bunch we don't know - most importantly how many pieces are they ordering per vehicle, how long does it take to get the product from Taiwan to California, is the part single sourced or do other vendors supply it as well.

It's possible they're shifting orders to the other vendor if they have one. If Tesla needs 2 pieces per vehicle, you can cut your production estimates in half. I would also guess maybe a month in transit for the parts - I doubt they're air dropping them.

The article about Taiwanese supplier referred to 3000/week and 5000/weer as ***sets*** of parts, so 3000/week and 5000/week directly translates to quantity of cars.

It is true that actual schedule of production and parts supply are related but clearly not matching.